A pair of Top-25 schools face off on Saturday as the Auburn Tigers host the Kentucky Wildcats. The Tigers are at No. 13 in the AP Top 25 and have gone a perfect 13-0 at home, while UK is at No. 22 despite dropping four of its last seven games.
College basketball odds have the Tigers listed as 8.5-point home favorites, with the Over/Under at 165 for this SEC showdown. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky vs. Auburn on February 17.
Kentucky vs Auburn best odds
Kentucky vs Auburn picks and predictions
The Kentucky Wildcats can fill up the bucket and are seventh in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom. However, they've struggled on the other end of the floor, ranking 104th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
That defense is the primary reason they've looked shaky over the last few weeks, losing to Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Florida while surrendering at least 89 points to each of those foes. Now they face an Auburn Tigers squad that are the only team in the country to rank in the Top 10 at KenPom on both offense (9th) and defense (4th).
The Tigers aren't just terrific on defense, they are perfectly built to contain this Kentucky offense. Despite ranking in the Top 100 in transition frequency, this up-tempo Kentucky attack ranks just 354th in transition efficiency per ShotQualityBets. They are also 354th in efficiency at attacking the rim, while Auburn has a Top 50 defense at the rim and a Top 10 defense in transition.
What this Kentucky offense does best is draining shots from beyond the arc, ranking 14th in the country in threes made per game (9.9) and third in 3-point percentage (40.7%). However, the Tigers do a fantastic job of defending the arc, holding foes to just 29.8% shooting from deep.
To be fair, the Tigers don't knock down many threes of their own, but they don't have to. They get to the rim (18th in efficiency) and attack the offensive glass (36th in offensive rebounding rate), while taking care of the ball (31th in turnover rate). That's bad news for a Kentucky team that doesn't protect the basket, has been below-average on the boards, and ranks just 248th in opponent turnover rate.
Factor in the massive home-court advantage of playing in "The Jungle", where Auburn is 13-0 straight up with an average scoring margin of +22.1 points per game, and the Tigers have the edge here. Expect Auburn to control the paint and limit Kentucky on the perimeter, en route to a win and cover tonight.
My best bet: Auburn -8.5 (-110 at bet365)
Kentucky vs Auburn same-game parlay
Auburn -8.5
Antonio Reeves Under 2.5 threes
Jaylin Williams Over 16.5 points
Although Antonio Reeves is having a terrific season for UK, he has hit fewer than 2.5 treys in eight of his last 12 games. The senior guard has been held to exactly one 3-pointer in three of his last four and now faces an Auburn school that locks down perimeter shooters.
Meanwhile, Jaylin Williams has reached 20+ points in three of his last five contests. The 245-pound power forward is poised for another big game inside against Kentucky's soft interior.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kentucky vs Auburn spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with Auburn at -8.5 and the total at 164.5. The spread briefly moved to -9 before buyback on the Wildcats shifted it back to -8.5, while the O/U has ticked up to 165.5.
The Wildcats are coming off a 75-63 win against Mississippi to cover as 8.5-point home faves. However, they are still just 4-4 straight up and 3-5 against the spread in their previous eight games, due primarily to their leaky defense.
The Tigers are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five contests. Their last game saw them destroy South Carolina by a final score of 101-61.
Kentucky vs Auburn betting trend to know
The Tigers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Auburn.
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Kentucky vs Auburn game info
| Location: | Neville Arena, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, February 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Kentucky vs Auburn key injuries
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