Kentucky vs Georgia Odds, Picks and Predictions: Dogs Hound Cats at Home

Saturday’s matchup between the Kentucky Wildcats and Georgia Bulldogs is a key one for both teams, as the two SEC foes eye a win for vastly different reasons. Kentucky hopes to avoid yet another defeat in conference play, as their tournament hopes begin slipping away from them. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs need to end a terrible stretch of six defeats in seven games.

Kentucky coach John Calipari is short on answers for the issues surrounding his team’s defensive problems, as the Wildcats have some of the worst metrics of any team in his tenure. Meanwhile, the Dawgs rank near the bottom of college basketball in effective field goal percentage, and could use a boost against a poor defensive opponent.

Can Georgia get a big win at home and put itself in a position to close their season strong? Or will Kentucky pick up its fourth-straight road victory in conference play? Find out in our Kentucky vs. Georgia college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, February 11. 

Kentucky vs Georgia best odds

Kentucky vs Georgia picks and predictions

It’s pretty bad when you have the reigning player of the year and your fans are calling for him to get benched. That’s exactly what’s happening with Oscar Tshiebwe, who scored just seven points and hauled in seven boards in Kentucky’s 15-point defeat at home to Arkansas on Tuesday night. It was the second-worst home defeat in the Calipari era, and left the Wildcats with a 1-7 record against Quad-1 opponents.

Arkansas did what many teams have done lately against the Wildcats — abuse Tshiebwe defensively. The Hogs scored 28 points in the paint in the second half and attempted just three shots from beyond the arc, as they put up 47 points. Many of them were dunks and layups, including multiple alley-oop lobs right over the head of the Kentucky big. 

Teams haven’t been shy in post-game press conferences about their gameplan. Many have clearly stated they have identified a weakness in Kentucky’s pick-and-roll defense, particularly with putting Tshiebwe in ball-screen situations. One of those very opponents was Georgia, back on January 17. 

In fact, it was working to perfection for 20 minutes. Georgia led by eight points at Rupp Arena behind a dominant first half, in which it scored 42 points led by point guard Terry Roberts. Georgia scored 20 points in the paint as Roberts and big man Braelen Bridges combined for 19 points, mostly off pick-and-roll situations.

The problem for Georgia is that it had to play a second half. The Bulldogs couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat after halftime, and Tshiebwe had a half that many players would consider a career game. His 23 points and 15 rebounds in the final 20 minutes saw Kentucky outscore the Dawgs by 22 points. Georgia managed just 10 points in the paint in the second half, and allowed the Wildcats to grab eight offensive rebounds.

Since that defeat, Georgia has lost five of its next six — but it’s been playing close at home. The Bulldogs beat South Carolina in overtime, and suffered narrow defeats to Vanderbilt and Miss in games they led late. The Dawgs have also been without Roberts for the past two games due to a concussion, and he’s expected to be back after joining practice late in the week. If he’s able to go, he creates a nightmare matchup for Tshiebwe and Kentucky.

The implied odds for Georgia at their current price is around 25%, which for me is far too low. If these two teams played each other 10 times at home with how inconsistent the Wildcats are playing, I’d expect the Dawgs to walk away victorious at least three or four times. Kentucky struggles if it can’t dominate the glass, and Georgia ranks 43rd in rebounds per game and 99th in offensive rebound rate. 

That’s why my best bet for this one is for Georgia to do just that. Tshiebwe is simply unreliable right now, and Georgia has lost just two of its 13 home games this season. This is a very favorable number for the Bulldogs in a spot where they could be prime to pull off an upset over the Wildcats, and you shouldn’t pass it up. 

My best bet: Georgia moneyline (+290 at DraftKings)

Kentucky vs Georgia spread analysis

Kentucky has gone 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games, but is coming off a 15-point defeat to Arkansas in a game that saw it favored to win by five. The Wildcats have covered in each of their last three games away from home, winning all three outright. Making matters tougher, point guard Sahvir Wheeler is dealing with an ankle issue and guard CJ Fredrick will miss the game with a cracked rib. 

Georgia has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games, losing outright in six of them. The Dawgs have only been favored in two of its last 10 games, both at home. If Roberts is able to go, they will have no injury issues to deal with.

Georgia is getting about eight points at the moment, and the Covers Consensus is somewhat split on who to play. While 57% of the picks are on the Bulldogs to cover, more than half of the money is on the Wildcats. Georgia hasn’t covered in its last four games against a team with a .600 or better record, so it would have to buck the trend to not only cover but win outright. 

Kentucky vs Georgia Over/Under analysis

If you want high-scoring basketball… this may not be the game for you. That said, the Over could be the play. The Total sits around 140 points, down about a point from where it opened. The Over is 7-3 in Kentucky’s last 10 games and in each of its last four, in large part due to those four opponents averaging 74.5 points per game. 

Georgia’s seen quite a few overs recently as well. Five of its last seven contests have gone Over, with three of the last four clearing a similar number to this one by at least 10 points. The last three home games for the Dawgs have seen at least 152 points scored in each.

The Over is also where the Covers Consensus finds the most agreement. Nearly 70% of the money so far, and 60% of the picks, are on the Total to go above the current number. The Bulldogs have seen the Over hit in their last four games against teams with a winning record, and this could easily continue that trend. 

Kentucky vs Georgia betting trend to know

The Bulldogs are 11-2 straight up at home this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Georgia.

Kentucky vs Georgia game info

Kentucky vs Georgia key injuries

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