The No. 16 Kentucky Wildcats face off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in SEC basketball action on Tuesday night. The Wildcats had a pair of huge wins against Auburn and Alabama last week, but it won't be easy for them to beat a Bulldogs side that has only lost twice at home all season.
College basketball odds have the Bulldogs as 3.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under listed at 156.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky vs. Mississippi State on Tuesday, February 27.
Kentucky vs Mississippi State best odds
Kentucky vs Mississippi State picks and predictions
The Kentucky Wildcats are coming off a 117-95 shootout win against Alabama. They allowed the highly efficient and up-tempo Tide offense to shoot 57% from the floor, but were able to separate on the scoreboard due to their own red-hot shooting.
Before that contest, the Wildcats had made massive strides on defense over their previous three games. Between February 13 and 23, they were sixth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (85.4) and 118th in adjusted tempo (68.9) after ranking 137th in adjusted defense (102.7) and 13th in adjusted tempo (73.5) before that stretch.
While that improved defense was torched in that win against Alabama, I expect Kentucky to show up today against the slow-paced Mississippi State Bulldogs, who are 141st in the country in effective field goal percentage (51.4%) and turn the ball over at the highest rate in the SEC. While the Bulldogs do a good job of attacking the rim and drawing fouls, they shoot poorly from the perimeter (32.2 3PT%) and struggle at the charity stripe (324th in the country with a 67 FT%).
The key to the Bulldogs' success this season has been their lockdown defense, which ranks 11th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. That said, I'm not convinced they can slow down this high-powered Kentucky offense, especially since they surrendered 99 points to Alabama earlier this month and gave up 90 points on 56% shooting to the Wildcats when these teams tangled back in January.
Although I remain uncertain about any bet involving their highly-ranked defense against Kentucky's elite scoring unit, I expect the Wildcats' improved defense to show up. Take the Under on MSU's team total tonight.
My best bet: Mississippi State team total Under 79.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Kentucky vs Mississippi State same-game parlay
Mississippi State team total Under 79.5
Tolu Smith Over 17.5 points
Josh Hubbard Under 15.5 points
Bulldogs forward Tolu Smith carried their offense in the first meeting between these teams. While the rest of the team went just 20-54 from the field and hit just two free throws, he went 11-15 from the floor and knocked down four shots from the charity stripe to finish with 26 points.
Smith leads the Bulldogs with 16.8 points per game on 59.7% shooting, and they'll likely try to feed him the ball inside against a UK team that has been playing plenty of small ball following Tre Mitchell's injury. The 6-foot-11 senior has dropped at least 19 points in four of his last six games and he scored 22 points against Kentucky when these sides clashed last season.
While I'm banking on a solid performance from Smith, I'm expecting a dud from MSU's second-leading scorer Josh Hubbard. While the freshman averages 15.3 ppg, he shoots just 38.4% from the floor and went 1-11 from the field in these two team's previous meeting.
Expect the 5-foot-10 Hubbard to once again struggle with the length and athleticism of Kentucky's backcourt.
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Kentucky vs Mississippi State spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with Mississippi State as a 2.5-point home favorite with the total listed at 157.5. Early money came in on the Bulldogs and the Under, slimming the total to 156.5 and shifting MSU to -3.5.
Although the Wildcats have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, any success during March Madness will depend on improved defensive play. They had struggled immensely on defense earlier this season but seemed to turn things around by holding Mississippi, Auburn, and LSU to 65.7 ppg over a three-game stretch.
However, it's worth mentioning that after shocking Auburn by double-digits on the road, the Wildcats were upset by a .500 LSU squad that was missing its leading scorer. Considering they're coming off another massive victory against a ranked team in Alabama, this could be another letdown spot.
The Bulldogs might not be ranked but they are 27th in the KenPom ratings, and barring a late-season collapse, they should make the NCAA Tournament. Ever since getting crushed on the road by Alabama on February 3, they've been red-hot, going 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.
Kentucky vs Mississippi State betting trend to know
The Wildcats have covered the spread in seven of their last 11 away games (+2.60 Units / 22% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Mississippi State.
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Kentucky vs Mississippi State game info
| Location: | Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 27, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Kentucky vs Mississippi State key injuries
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