BYU and Kansas meet in a Big 12 conference affair, with the Jayhawks desperately needing a win.
Kansas enters this game with just a .500 record over its last four conference games, a feat unthinkable to many Rock Chalk faithful in the preseason.
Can they fix the recent issues that have plagued them and bounce back tonight? My BYU vs. Kansas predictions think so.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Tuesday, February 18.
Kansas vs BYU prediction
My best bet
Kansas +3.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
I went into the season with plans to fade a poorly-built Kansas Jayhawks roster, and over the last month, it's gone quite well. The Jayhawks are an eye-popping 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and are on the verge of falling out of the Top 25 for the first time since 2021. This all comes with a very important aspect in the foreground: the Jayhawks started the season ranked No. 1.
The market has reacted to this recent slide. Kansas opened up as a one-possession underdog (even shorter at some other books) and has been faded hard, causing the spread to rise to BYU Cougars -3.5. It's hard to argue with that logic, but it's possible the market has overreacted.
I made this game a pick 'em, but even the analytics sites agree that this is a bit of a market overreaction. If you simply take the performances of these two teams since the start of 2025, Bart Torvik makes this a pick 'em. If you expand upon that and include priors from the season along with the full season of data, you get a number of -2.
Kansas has been plagued much of the season by poor 3-point shooting and teams sagging in the paint when playing them. Over the last three Jayhawks losses, Kansas has been pedestrian from deep with 33% shooting, but more importantly, they've been baited into taking more threes than they want. While BYU's condensed defense can do this to a degree, it has some functional issues that Kansas should be able to exploit in the halfcourt regularly.
The Cougars have allowed 1.09 points per possession on plays defined as big cuts and rolls. That ranks in the 23rd percentile nationally, and this is a scary team to have that defensive issue against. For all of Kansas' offensive problems, getting scoring from its two bigs in Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams is not one.
Unfortunately for BYU, they do this best on cuts and rolls to the baskets, generating 1.19 points per possession even while having one of the highest frequencies of running this set in college basketball. That makes this a direct strength or weakness I'm not sure BYU can overcome.
I like the buy-low spot on Kansas. Getting nearly two possessions on a defensive unit that is still borderline elite is too much to pass up. I expect the Kansas bigs to have a big scoring night and for the Jayhawks to get just enough supplemental offense in transition to pull off the minor road upset.
Kansas vs BYU same-game parlay (SGP)
Kansas +3.5
KJ Adams Over 7.5 points
Under 147.5
We're pairing two plays with our best bet for this same-game parlay.
The first is KJ Adams' eclipse of a small point total for the aforementioned reasons of BYU's struggles with defending rolls to the baskets. I opted for Adams over Dickinson because his number is much more attainable, and he has a slightly better matchup.
Adams' lateral quickness should be a nice boost tonight against some defenders who aren't as quick as him.
We rounded things off with the Under of 147.5, which gave us a nice non-correlated boost.
My raw numbers saw a one-point edge, but generally, both defenses present issues. Kansas will have some success scoring with their bigs, but they'll still be baited into plenty of jump shots, which they miss.
On the other side, I think offense will be hard to come back for BYU all night as I'm seeing many direct routes to them scoring with consistency in this matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kansas vs BYU odds
Kansas vs BYU live odds
Kansas vs BYU opening odds
- Spread: Kansas +1.5 | BYU -1.5
- Moneyline: Kansas +102 | BYU -122
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 | Under 147.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kansas vs BYU betting trend to know
Kansas has hit the Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kansas vs. BYU.
How to watch Kansas vs BYU
| Location | Marriott Center, Provo, UT |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kansas vs BYU key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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