A pair of Top-25 teams face off in Starkville on Tuesday night where the No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs host the No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies have won five in a row and my Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State predictions expects them to pull through as short road dogs tonight. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this SEC clash on February 18.
Texas A&M vs Mississippi State prediction
My best bet
Texas A&M +2.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Early money has come in on the Texas A&M Aggies, slimming their spread from +3.5 to +2.5. While we're not getting the best number anymore I still like Aggies to cover.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off a road win against Ole Miss but they are still just 4-6 straight up and 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games. They've also gone just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home.
Meanwhile, the Aggies have won three of their last four road games with upset wins against Missouri and Mississippi during that span along with a 1-point loss at Texas.
The Aggies are sixth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and do an excellent job of preventing penetration and forcing opponents into tough outside shots. That makes them a brutal matchup for MSU who is dead-last in the SEC in 3-point percentage (28.5%) during conference play while ranking 14th in free throw rate.
The Aggies also shoot poorly from the perimeter but they rank 17th in the country in free throw rate (29.3%) so they'll be able to draw fouls and get to the line for easy points. The Aggies force turnovers at the highest rate in the conference and also lead the SEC in offensive and defensive rebounding rate.
After a big road win against their rival Rebels on the weekend, expect a letdown performance from the Bulldogs and fade them here.
Texas A&M vs Mississippi State same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas A&M +2.5
Under 143.5
Cameron Matthews Under 6.5 rebounds
While I expect the Aggies elite defense to lead to a cover, I don't expect much from their offense. They have only two players averaging double-digits in points per game (Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps) and the two guards combine to average 29.5 ppg on just 37.6 FG%.
Texas A&M is 13th in the SEC in eFG% (47.5%) during conference play and that combined with a slow tempo has led to lower-scoring games with the Under 8-1 in their last nine contests.
Cameron Matthews has logged fewer than 6.5 rebounds in eight of his last 13 games. He'll have a tough time eclipsing this number with how dominant the Aggies have been on the glass and the slower pace they prefer.
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Texas A&M vs Mississippi State odds
Texas A&M vs Mississippi State live odds
Texas A&M vs Mississippi State opening odds
- Spread: Texas A&M +2.5 (-110) | Mississippi State -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas A&M +115 | Mississippi State -135
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas A&M vs Mississippi State betting trend to know
The Aggies have covered the first half spread in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.25 Units / 33% ROI) while the Bulldogs have covered the 1H spread in just five of their last 20 games at home (-11.10 Units / -48% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State.
How to watch Texas A&M vs Mississippi State
| Location | Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Texas A&M vs Mississippi State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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