North Carolina and Kentucky weren’t supposed to be playing each other this week. But with so many teams dealing with health protocols, North Carolina and Kentucky put together one heckuva game that we’ll get to watch on Saturday night.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are currently 8-2 on the year. Earlier this season, North Carolina hit a bump in the road, losing two straight games against Purdue and Tennessee. Since those two losses, the Tar Heels have won five straight, including a win over Michigan.
On the other hand, Kentucky was upset by Notre Dame last week and will look to put that game behind them. The Wildcats are 7-2 on the season but don’t have a win against a Top-100 team. Kentucky needed this game more than North Carolina in terms of non-conference strength of schedule.
Here are our picks and predictions for the CBS Sports Classic between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Kentucky Wildcats.
Kentucky vs North Carolina odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Kentucky Wildcats opened as a 1.5-point favorite and have seen some movement to as high as -3 in some areas. Meanwhile, the total is all over the place since opening at 147.5. You can now find the total at 147, 147.5 and 148 at different outlets so make sure to shop around.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Kentucky vs North Carolina predictions
- Prediction: North Carolina +3 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 147 (-110)
- Best bet: North Carolina +3 (-110)
Predictions made on 12/18/2021 at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Kentucky vs North Carolina game info
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Saturday, December 18, 2021
• Tip-off: 5:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Kentucky at North Carolina betting preview
Injuries
Kentucky: Puff Johnson G (Out).
North Carolina: CJ Frederick G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Wildcats are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of seven points or less. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kentucky vs. North Carolina.
Kentucky vs North Carolina picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Let’s just get right to it. Kentucky hasn’t beaten a Top-100 team this season. With losses to Duke and Notre Dame on the road (and neutral court), Kentucky only has home wins against teams that are 101 or worse in KenPom rankings.
The Wildcats certainly need this game more than North Carolina, but that may not ultimately mean they’ll win tonight.
The Wildcats are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.5% on the season while turning the ball over 17.3% of the time. The Wildcats will be fine in the turnover battle as North Carolina isn’t a real threat to force turnovers at a high rate.
Of course, Kentucky wins most games on the glass with Oscar Tshiebwe averaging 14.4 as the big man in the middle for the Wildcats. The Wildcats are averaging 45% offensive rebounds (first in the nation). However, North Carolina is holding opponents to 18.6% offensive rebounds this season (second in the nation).
I highly doubt we’ll see Kentucky earn 45% offensive rebounds in this game and if Kentucky continues to struggle to get to the line, it’s going to be hard to overcome not getting the usual second chances inside.
On the other hand, North Carolina is shooting 40.9% from long range and has a 55.3% effective field goal percentage. The Wildcats have been solid defensively, but that could be based on the fact that they’ve had mostly an easy schedule outside of three games this season.
I’ll take my chances with North Carolina at +3. If the Tar Heels can limit Kentucky on the glass, they’ll be in great shape.
Prediction: North Carolina +3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Fewer second chances ultimately mean fewer points. Both offenses like to run at a fast pace, but against Kentucky, it’s not easy finding quick buckets. Opponents are taking 18.2 seconds per possession this season, which is 319th in all of college basketball.
Both teams have also been excellent on the defensive glass and while turnovers will be limited – leading to fewer transition opportunities. Plus, neither team fouls all that much in the first place. This game might get more physical, but I’ll still take the Under here.
Prediction: Under 147 (-110)
Best bet
In a neutral game between Kentucky and North Carolina, if I’m getting three points with either team, I’m likely doing it. This is a solid matchup but, as I stated earlier, if the Tar Heels can limit Kentucky on the glass, they’ll shoot their way through this game.
North Carolina likely deserves to be a favorite in this game. Point blank.
Pick: North Carolina +3 (-110)
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