Texas Tech was up nine points with 3:52 to go. Freshman Christian Anderson had just made two free throws. And then the Red Raiders were outscored 11-2 in the next 2:05, missing two front-end free throws on the way to allow the Florida Gators to tie up the Elite Eight matchup. The Gators won.
And that is why yours truly is not one of nine survivors with a path through this weekend in his $60,000 survivor pool. Instead, 147 entrants of that pool have made it to the Final Four of this chalk-heavy tournament.
I’m not bitter. I’m not bitter at all.
In a Final Four filled with No. 1 seeds, there are bound to be more cowards alive in your survivor pool. Whoops, did I just call you a coward? Allow me to remind you, that Texas Tech was up nine points with 3:52 to go.
To survive this weekend, your March Madness picks have to ponder Monday night as much as Saturday evening. Of your two teams afoot, which team will win the national championship?
Best March Madness Final Four survivor picks
If you have Florida and Duke, take Florida now.
If this is your survivor position, congratulations. You have the most enviable Final Four setup. Your two options are the two favorites.
Do not count your chickens. Yours truly was in that position in 2019, and then two-point underdog Texas Tech upset Michigan State in the second game of the Final Four. This is when you realize I will probably never step foot in Lubbock.
Your only wonder is who would win between your two remaining options. There are too many people remaining in the survivor pool to ponder any zig. This pool will be split. You need to get both picks right.
Would Duke beat Florida? Lookahead lines favor the Blue Devils by 4.5 points with some consideration made for -5. That may be steep, just like this weekend’s Duke line is, but that will be the market, regardless.
Any belief in the Blue Devils losing needs to be based in their opponents’ defense. If Duke survives Houston’s defense, then Florida’s should not be up for the task. It does nothing better than the Cougars do.
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If you have Auburn and Duke, take Auburn now.
This is the second-most enviable position to be in. You need a mild upset on Saturday, that’s it. My 2019 would be your profit now.
Your Monday night worry would be Johni Broome taking over the game. He may be the only individual player capable of outdueling Cooper Flagg this season.
But Duke would still be favored by 6 or 6.5 because Flagg’s supporting cast is that much better than Broome’s is.
If you have Florida and Houston, take Florida now.
Yes, you read that correctly. Lookahead lines may favor the Gators by 1.5, but if the Houston Cougars spring the upset on Saturday, their power rating would improve enough to flip that spread. Frankly, it already should have favored the Big 12 champions.
Advanced metrics all prefer Houston already, and Florida has been lucky to survive this far already. (Make a free throw, Darrion Williams. Make a free throw, JT Toppin.)
The Cougars are far more experienced and are far more familiar with each other. Kelvin Sampson is a far more veteran coach. If these two meet, Houston deserves more deference, and your survivor strategy should offer it.
If you have Auburn and Houston, take Auburn now.
Houston is a mere 1.5-point favorite in lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup, but again, a Cougars upset on Saturday will escalate this number.
No defense is better equipped to remove Broome from a conversation than Houston’s is. The Cougars keep the ball from getting inside, be it via entry pass or penetration.
Auburn relies on Broome, as he uses up 30.7% of possessions when in the game. That works well for the Tigers, given how dominant he has been all season, but Broome is an inside presence.
Houston over Auburn would have been my winning survivor play if Texas Tech had not ruined all good things in life.
