We're down to the Final Four in March Madness and we have a pair of fantastic matchups with every No. 1 seed making it this far. Florida, Auburn, Duke, and Houston have been the four best teams in the country all season and that should lead to some great back-and-forth games on Saturday.
My March Madness picks look to take advantage of that as I build a parlay based on what should be a shootout between SEC schools and a close contest between the top defense and highest-rated offense in the country.
Saturday's best March Madness parlay: Final Four
Florida/Auburn Over 159.5
Johni Broome 10+ rebounds
L.J. Cryer Over 2.5 threes
Houston +5
Florida/Auburn Over 159.5
With a red-hot offense and a defense that has looked vulnerable over the last month, the Florida Gators have been an Over machine. The Over has cashed in 11 straight games for the Gators and on Saturday they face an Auburn Tigers squad that they beat 90-81 two months ago.
The Tigers have struggled with their shooting over the last couple of rounds but they are still third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and prefer a quick tempo which feeds right into the style of the fast-paced Gators.
Johni Broome 10+ rebounds
That up-tempo style will lead to more possessions which should result in more available rebounds as well. All-American forward Johni Broome averages 10.9 rpg and has grabbed at least 11 boards in every game during the NCAA Tournament.
He also pulled down 11 rebounds in 30 minutes when these teams previously clashed. In a game of this magnitude, I'd be surprised if Broome didn't log 35+ minutes which will put him on pace to hit double-digits in boards.
L.J. Cryer Over 2.5 threes
The Houston Cougars are 282nd in the country in 2-point percentage (48.4%) and will struggle to get anything inside against a Duke Blue Devils squad that is third in opponent 2PT% (43.3%).
For the Cougars to cover (or pull off the upset) against Duke, they'll need to knock down shots from the perimeter which is the biggest strength of their offense. Leading scorer L.J. Cryer has hit more than 2.5 threes in 12 of his last 18 games, shooting a sizzling 43.1% from deep during that span.
Houston +5
If Cryer and the Cougars guards are knocking down threes, they'll be able to cover this spread. Keep in mind that every analytics site is expecting a much closer score than the 5-point spread here. KenPom is projecting a 2-point Duke win with Haslametrics putting the gap between these teams at less than a point. Bart Torvik actually has Houston winning 65-64.
This is easily the best and most physical defense that Flagg and the Blue Devils have faced all year. The Cougars haven't lost in regulation since their second game of the season when they lost a nail-biter to Auburn.
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