Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Zeigler Torments Wildcats in SEC Clash

The Kentucky Wildcats will look to add a big win to their NCAA tournament resume when they travel down I-75 for a battle with the Tennessee Volunteers.

Kentucky sits as a  No. 4 seed in the latest Bracket Matrix predictions, and a win on Saturday in the college basketball odds would likely see a bump up to No. 3. However, the Wildcats will hope to avoid a repeat of the first meeting in Rupp when they never led and lost by 11 while giving up 103 points to the visitors.

It was an offensive explosion that night for Tennessee, with five players reaching double-digits. The Vols rolled despite Dalton Knecht scoring just 16 points, one of only three SEC contests in which he’s not scored at least 22 points. With the SEC regular season title secured, the Vols can now focus on building a resume of their own as they push for a No. 1 seed.

Our college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky vs. Tennessee on Saturday, March 9 have identified a player who should repeat his strong performance from the first game and provide solid value for your betting dollar.

Kentucky vs Tennessee best odds

Kentucky vs Tennessee picks and predictions

The first time these two teams met, the focus for bettors — myself included — was on Dalton Knecht. After all, the Tennessee Volunteers were coming off a stretch of games where Knecht had gone for 30+ in four of its last five contests and had 25 in the other game.

However, his supporting cast hogged much of the spotlight that night, especially Zakai Zeigler. He buried a trio of 3-point shots in the first half and got to the free throw line for 10 attempts, making seven as he went for a team-high 26 points and dropped another 13 dimes.

Perhaps making his night more impressive, Zeigler had a usage rate of just 27.8 versus Knecht’s rate of 23.1 on the night. You could be forgiven for thinking he was over 30 with a stat line like that. Zeigler simply took what was given to him, and unfortunately for the Kentucky Wildcats, he was given a lot.

However, that’s been the story of the season for the Wildcats. Despite their athleticism and length, good guards have gone for career nights against them. Even the win over Vanderbilt saw Tyrin Lawrence score 23 points for a season-high, despite a usage rate of just 21.3 for the game.

Zeigler took full advantage in that first game, hitting eight of his 11 shot attempts and scoring 13 points before halftime. He was able to get into the lane at will, drawing fouls and finding teammates when his shot wasn’t there. He’s also likely to be given plenty of opportunities again on Saturday.

Over his last three games, Zeigler has been quite involved and is getting to the line. He’s attempted 24 FTs in that span, making 18 of them, and has scored 13+ in all three games. Two of those contests saw Zeigler's usage rate rise above 25.4 as well.

While he’s unlikely to get into the lane as easily as he did in that first meeting — when DJ Wagner, Kentucky’s best perimeter defender, was out injured — he should be able to continue attacking the team's biggest weaknesses at that end of the floor. That includes Kentucky’s inability to stay in front of attacking guards, and a tendency to leave players wide open for quality looks from downtown.

According to ShotQualityBets, 87% of his possessions end either with a shot at the rim or a 3-point attempt. Kentucky is 200th in FT rate against this season, allowing teams to shoot nearly 60% at the rim, and struggles with dribble penetration and leaving shooters open.

Kentucky wants to turn games into a track meet, as it provides the Wildcats with their best chance of winning. That led to a game in the first meeting where the teams combined for 195 points and saw five Vols finish in double-digits.

I see a repeat of that script on Saturday, which means Zeigler should easily clear the 13.5-point total that’s been set for him across the board. I’d also suggest sprinkling a bit on his alternate point totals, as I’ll be laddering him up to 25 points.

My best bet: Zakai Zeigler Over 13.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Kentucky vs Tennessee same-game parlay

Zakai Zegler Over 13.5 points

Reed Sheppard Over 4.5 assists

Jonas Aidoo 8+ rebounds

+370 at DraftKings

The first meeting saw Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard hand out six assists, as the Vols ran him off the 3-point line and he became more of a facilitator. He’s been doing even more of that over the past four games, with his 11 assists against Vanderbilt giving Sheppard 29 dimes over those contests. 

Meanwhile, Jonas Aidoo is the type of physical big who gives Kentucky problems inside, and teams are feasting in the paint against the Wildcats this year. That includes the offensive glass, where Aidoo pulled down four of his game-high 11 boards in the first meeting.

He’s registered 7+ rebounds in four straight, and over his last three home games, he’s totaled 29. Given the matchup, Aidoo presents good value to get at least eight here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kentucky vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for this game is 7.5 after opening at Tennessee -9.5, and the public jumped quickly on the Wildcats yesterday afternoon. Kentucky has played fairly well away from home, including a 70-59 win at Auburn a couple of weeks ago.

The Wildcats have been underdogs six times this season, covering in five and winning four outright. That includes two of their last three road trips, winning at Mississippi State and Auburn. The Vols are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games and have covered in four straight contests. However, when favored by 7.5 points or more, they’ve covered just 10 of 18 times.

This is a tricky one to call, and those who got Kentucky +9.5 early are in better shape. The Wildcats don’t tend to get blown out and have plenty of offensive firepower, especially from the outside. They shot 52% against a strong Tennessee defense in the first meeting.

The total has gone up 2-3 points since opening at 164.5 in a few places, and right now you can shop between 166.5 and 167.5 depending on the book. That’s still nearly 30 points below what they combined for a month ago.

Kentucky has been an ATM when betting on Overs this year. The Wildcats have gone Over the total in four straight and in seven of their last 10. Going further, 24 of their last 33 contests have gone Over the posted total.

It’s been the opposite for the hosts. Tennessee’s last 20 games at home have seen the Under come through 12 times, and the Under is 5-1 in the Vols' last six games. That said, the tempo of this contest should be similar to the first matchup, and given the firepower on both teams, I’d lean Over in this one.

Kentucky vs Tennessee betting trend to know

Kentucky has hit the game total Over in 24 of its last 33 games (+14.10 Units / 39% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Tennessee.

Kentucky vs Tennessee game info

Kentucky vs Tennessee key injuries

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