Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Vols Hammer the Wildcats in Knoxville

Kentucky hits the road on Saturday as it looks to bounce back from the program’s worst SEC start since 1987. To do so will require getting its first road win of the season against a strong Tennessee Volunteers team ranked No. 5 in the nation.

The Volunteers are 4-0 in the conference so far, and they’ve won 10 of 17 matchups against the Wildcats with Rick Barnes at the helm. Their tenacious defense and rebounding dominance will put John Calipari’s team under a lot of pressure.

Can the Wildcats at least keep things interesting against the Vols? Find out in our Kentucky vs. Tennessee college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, January 14. 

Kentucky vs Tennessee best odds

Kentucky vs Tennessee picks and predictions

Nobody in their wildest dreams saw this coming for the Wildcats and John Calipari, not even their biggest detractors. Ranked 64th in the NET Rankings coming into the weekend, Kentucky is 0-5 against Quad 1 opposition and has just one victory over a Quad 2 school. Now it comes into the game off the back of a terrible Quad 4 defeat to South Carolina. 

Despite being favored by nearly 20 points, the Wildcats were trailing at home by double digits within just a few minutes to the worst team in the SEC. Making matters worse, it was to a South Carolina side that Tennessee dominated just a week prior.

The Wildcats are in shambles at the moment. Calipari seems lost in postgame interviews and reigning National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe revealed after the defeat on Tuesday that he begged Calipari to put in walk-ons in the hopes that they would fight harder than his teammates.

While the metrics indicate that Kentucky’s offense is doing well, its performance at times says otherwise. According to UK’s stat team, it led for a total of 96 seconds combined in its five games against Gonzaga, UCLA, Missouri, Alabama, and South Carolina. In the Wildcats’ only “true” road games this year, both Missouri and Alabama ran them off the court as they won by a combined 40 points.

Tennessee’s biggest strengths align perfectly with some of Kentucky’s biggest weaknesses. Sahvir Wheeler’s turnover issues have reared their head at times this season, and the Vols put pressure on teams from all angles, forcing more than 17 turnovers per game. 

Just like Alabama, Tennessee is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and if Tshiebwe is pulled away from the rim, the Wildcats aren’t able to rely on the second-chance points they thrive on. 

That would be a bad recipe for success, considering Tennessee’s ranked number one in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings. 

Kentucky is getting 12 points in this game, a number never before seen for a Kentucky team under Calipari, but it’s not enough. 

Go for some extra profit and take Tennessee to win by 15 or more on Saturday against a Kentucky team that appears to have given up on one another when things get tough. 

My best bet: Tennessee -14.5 alternate line (+144 at FanDuel)

Kentucky vs Tennessee spread analysis

We’ve already touched on the spread, but let’s dive in just a bit deeper. Kentucky has gone 0-9-1 against the spread in its last 10 matches. In fact, four of its last six games have seen it miss covering the spread by at least 17 points. 

Tennessee has covered the spread in three of its last five games, and six of its last 10. In the Vols’ last six home games against teams with a losing road record, the Vols have covered five times. They’ve also covered in seven of their last nine games at Thompson-Boling Arena.

The line for this contest opened at Tennessee -14 but was quickly bet down a few points, which works out for those wanting to take the Vols. 

That said, the Covers’ Consensus is slightly favoring the Wildcats to cover in terms of picks, while nearly 60% of the money is on Tennessee’s side. 

Kentucky vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis

The total of 131.5 for this game is far too low, according to the Covers’ Consensus. More than 75% of picks are on the Over, and the same amount of money is coming in on that as well. The total on the market, however, has quickly dropped three points from the opening 134.5 line.

It makes sense, given Kentucky’s defensive woes. The Wildcats allowed South Carolina, who came in ranked 289th in offensive efficiency, to score more than 1.1 points per possession a week after scoring fewer than 0.7 ppp against the Vols.

Tennessee has held four of its last five opponents Under 60 points while having scored at least 77 in four of those five games. Kentucky, on the other hand, has allowed each of its previous seven opponents to top 60 points and has scored at least 68 in five of its last six. 

Five of Kentucky’s last six games have gone Over the number, and Tennessee’s last five games have seen the Over hit four times. 

Kentucky vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Wildcats are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Kentucky State.

Kentucky vs Tennessee game info

Kentucky vs Tennessee key injuries

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