Kentucky vs Texas A&M Odds, Picks and Predictions: Aggies off the Mark vs Wildcats

Texas A&M will hope to pick up its first win of SEC play on Saturday when the Aggies play host to the Kentucky Wildcats. The college basketball odds have the unranked home team slightly favored against a ranked foe. 

John Calipari’s team is off to a 2-0 start in conference play, and are looking to pick up a seventh consecutive win. The Wildcats have the second-highest scoring attack in college basketball, and they’re blocking shots at a high clip. They run one of the fastest-tempo attacks in the country, and have serious firepower off the bench.

For the Aggies, it’s been a week they’d like to forget. Consecutive double-digit defeats to LSU and Auburn have given them four losses in six games, and Buzz Williams has to be concerned about his offense. The Aggies have made just 11 of their last 71 attempts from downtown, so he’ll need his defense to step up if they’re to get their first conference victory. 

Our college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky vs. Texas A&M breaks down the Saturday, January 13 game, and explains why imposing their will likely means a low-scoring day for the Aggies. 

Kentucky vs Texas A&M best odds

Kentucky vs Texas A&M picks and predictions

When Kentucky’s been involved, the Over has typically been the way to go. But while we’re looking at the totals again for this contest, it’s actually an Under that presents the best value and our selection for best bet.

According to Bart Torvik’s tempo metrics, only five of the 15 games played by the Aggies this season have rated 70 or higher. That includes a 15-point defeat last weekend at LSU.

In those five games, Texas A&M has averaged less than 72 points per game. In fact, the Aggies reached 79 points in only one of those games, and that was all the way back in November.

The Aggies haven’t scored 79 or more points in nine games this year, and have scored exactly 79 in three. But given their offensive struggles of late, especially from beyond the arc, it’s unlikely they’ll achieve that mark against Kentucky. 

Kentucky’s biggest weakness on defense is guarding the 3-point line, but it’s a weakness this current Texas A&M team isn’t built to take advantage of. The Aggies are ranked 354th in the nation in 3-point shooting at just 26% as a team. 

Only two players are making better than 30% of their efforts — that is, if you include Andersson Garcia, who has attempted a total of eight shots from outside the arc. Wade Taylor leads the team with 114 attempts, and he’s made just 29 of them. Over his past two games, he’s a woeful 3-for-20 from downtown.

The Aggies are getting the bulk of their points from second-chance opportunities, leading the nation in offensive rebound rate. In fact, in the five games where Texas A&M had their highest offensive efficiency numbers, it registered an offensive rebound rate of 45.5% or higher. 

But while Kentucky struggled at times against Florida to secure defensive rebounds, Calipari made it a focus of the team against Missouri. It worked, as the Wildcats registered their second-best defensive rebound rate of the season. 

The Wildcats have allowed just one team to secure more than 40% of their missed shots, and that was Illinois State. The Wildcats won that game by 26 points.  

Even if Kentucky does give up second-chance opportunities, that’s no guarantee of points for the Aggies. The Wildcats rank 31st in block rate, swatting more than 8% of their opponent’s shots. 

Kentucky ranks in the Top 20 in tempo, while the Aggies rank in the 300s. Williams knows his team isn’t going to win an up-and-down battle with the Cats, and I expect him to try to muck things up. That means a physical, half-court style of play. 

But for an offense coming off two of its three most inefficient games of the season, going against a Top-25 defense against shots inside the arc, that’s a recipe for a low-scoring affair for the home side.

That’s why we’re going to take the Aggies team Under for our best bet. DraftKings is offering the best price for the Texas A&M team total Under, with -110 odds on its offense being held to 78 or fewer points on Saturday. 

My best bet: Texas A&M team total Under 78.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kentucky vs Texas A&M same-game parlay

Kentucky moneyline

Reed Sheppard Over 2.5 rebounds

+355 at DraftKings

I like Kentucky to get the win here. Even if the Aggies control the tempo, they’re going to struggle to shut down the Wildcats when nobody else has figured out a way yet. Their inability to shoot from range puts a lot of pressure on their defense to keep things close, but Kentucky’s simply got too many weapons at the offensive end.

Calipari’s going to likely emphasize crashing the glass again, and that should lead to some rebounds for Reed Sheppard. He had no rebounds against Missouri, ending a nine-game stretch of at least four boards. Look for him to bounce back and cash in on some long rebounds as the Aggies miss their shots from deep. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kentucky vs Texas A&M spread and Over/Under analysis

Kentucky is the underdog despite being ranked in the Top 10 and the recent struggles by Texas A&M. The Wildcats opened as 1.5-point underdogs, but that line has since moved to -2.5 and even -3 at DraftKings. 

I think that presents solid value on the Kentucky moneyline. The Wildcats were getting 3.5 points last weekend at Florida, and despite falling behind by 10 in the first half, they pulled out a 2-point win. They don’t turn the ball over, and should be able to capitalize on enough mistakes from Texas A&M to get the victory.

The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, including two wins as outright dogs. On the other side, the Aggies have failed to cover in four straight and five of their last seven. They also lost last weekend to LSU by 15 in a game they were favored to win by 12 or more. Texas A&M has also lost three of its last six games outright when favored. 

Since opening at 156.5, the total has come down to 154.5 across the board. It still remains the highest total for a Texas A&M game this season, eclipsing the 153 mark in its game against Houston Christian. The Aggies scored 79 points in that game as the total went Under, just as it has in their last four games.

Blindly betting the Over in Wildcats games has been profitable this season, as it’s 9-1 in Kentucky’s last 10. That includes five consecutive Overs, with the last five games for the Wildcats all eclipsing a total of 166. 

This is a tricky spot. I’m not sure I can bet an Under in a Kentucky game right now, but I also can’t play the Over here. I’d stick to taking the Texas A&M team total Under, as there’s too much variance on what the Wildcat offense could do in this one. 

Kentucky vs Texas A&M betting trend to know

The game total Over is 23-9 in Kentucky’s last 32 games (+13.1 units / 37% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Texas A&M.

Kentucky vs Texas A&M game info

Kentucky vs Texas A&M key injuries

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