LSU vs Arkansas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tigers Striking Fear in SEC Foes

The LSU Tigers may not be bound for the Field of 68 but given their current form, this is a team many in the SEC would like to avoid when the conference tournament tips off next week.

The Tigers have won four of their last five contests, including resume wins over Kentucky and South Carolina, and ride that momentum into Bud Walton Arena to battle the Arkansas Razorbacks on Wednesday night.

The Razorbacks, who are slight home favorites on the college basketball odds board, have dropped their last two games, most recently falling short of an upset against UK on the weekend.

I size up the spread and Over/Under for this SEC showdown and give my best college basketball picks for LSU vs. Arkansas on March 6.

LSU vs Arkansas best odds

LSU vs Arkansas picks and predictions

The last time the LSU Tigers faced the Arkansas Razorbacks, they scored 95 points in a one-sided win at home on February 3. Louisiana State fired at a 55% clip from the floor, including knocking down 12 of 23 shots from beyond the arc.

While LSU shouldn’t expect a repeat of that offensive eruption, there’s a good chance the Tigers still put up plenty of points against one of the worst defenses in the SEC. 

Arkansas, which allows just shy of 80 points per game, is coming off a track meet at Kentucky in which the Hogs scored 102 points in regulation and still lost 111-102. The game before that, the Razorbacks hemorrhaged 85 points in a home loss to Vanderbilt — a team that ranks 329th in scoring.

LSU is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now, and a piece of that is its aggressiveness from beyond the arc.

The Tigers have made nine or more 3-pointers in three of their last four games and got an all-around offensive effort in the win at Vandy on the weekend. Five players scored in double figures (even with leading scorer Jalen Cook out for the season) and the team shot 10-for-31 from deep.

The Razorbacks play one of the fastest tempos in the SEC, which means plenty of possessions for both sides. Arkansas’ foes average 61 field goal attempts, which is an uptick from LSU’s 57.7 FGA per game. Mix in a Hogs defense that sits near the bottom of the conference in defending the perimeter, and those attempts add up quick.

The Tigers’ team total is at 76.5 points O/U, which may seem high when measured against their recent scores and past team totals (ranging from 67.5 to 79.5 O/U). However, game models call for at least 78 points from LSU.

My best bet: LSU team total Over 76.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

LSU vs Arkansas same-game parlay

LSU team total Over 76.5

Jordan Wright Over 1.5 made threes

Khalif Battle Over 18.5 points

+575 at bet365

The Tigers lean into the uptick in tempo and get into a shootout with Arkansas tonight.

Jordan Wright is taking a lot more triples over the past four games. He’ll get extra possessions against the Hogs.

Khalif Battle has been on fire and was able to rest up earlier in the week after posting 42, 36, and 32 points in the last three games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

LSU vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis

Arkansas opened as low as a 2-point home favorite but quickly jumped to as high as -4 late on Tuesday night. The current market consensus is -3.5 for the Hogs. According to Covers Consensus, 64% of early picks at laying the points with the home side.

Arkansas is expected to have center Jalen Graham back in the lineup tonight after he was suspended briefly for academic reasons. The 6-foot-10 senior averages more than seven points and three rebounds and is a shot-changer inside on defense.

Khalif Battle should also be in action tonight after missing practice earlier this week. The Hogs’ second-leading scorer has been on fire the past three games, averaging 37.3 points in the span, but is “banged up” according to Arkansas coach Eric Musselman.

The Razorbacks have only two wins in their last six games but are 4-2 ATS in that span. The Hogs play an up-tempo pace but that hasn’t resulted in success, necessarily. Arkansas, which is 13th in the SEC in offensive efficiency, averages 79 points per home game but is just 6-10 ATS inside Bud Walton Arena.

LSU’s late-season surge is built on defense, with the Tigers limiting those last five foes to just over 70 points, including checking three of those rivals to 66 points or fewer. The Tigers are 3-2 ATS in that span and own a 5-4 ATS mark in true road games this season.

These SEC opponents clashed in Baton Rouge back on February 3, with LSU rolling Arkansas 95-74 as a 5-point favorite. That final score also topped the closing total of 154.5 points.

Tonight’s Over/Under total opened at 155.5 points and has climbed to as high as 156.5, as of Wednesday morning. Covers Consensus shows 68% of pick backing the Over.

The Razorbacks’ up-tempo attack and dreadful defense have made the Hogs one of the best Over bets in the land, bringing a 21-8 Over/Under record into Wednesday with a 13-2-1 O/U count at home. Arkansas rides a four-game Over run into tonight.

The Tigers are 13-15 O/U overall, including 3-6 O/U in road games. LSU has gone Over just once in its last six games heading into this road trip.

LSU vs Arkansas betting trend to know

Arkansas has gone Over the game total in 23 of its last 34 games (+10.90 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for LSU vs. Arkansas.

LSU vs Arkansas game info

LSU vs Arkansas key injuries

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