When it comes to March Madness, everyone has an opinion, and they seldom hesitate to share their March Madness bracket predictions with you. You've likely already heard who your brother, best friend, and even dry cleaner are picking this year, but what would artificial intelligence think of the Big Dance, and better yet, what would a bracket of computer-generated March Madness picks look like?
Wonder no longer! We asked ChatGPT to give us projections for every matchup in this year's tournament, factoring in current odds and past trends, plus accounting for the chaos involved with a tournament full of college kids.
The result is an AI March Madness bracket prediction that unsurprisingly has some dogs cutting down the nets in April, but it's not the "Dogs" you may expect.
March Madness picks methodology
ChatGPT is an impressive AI-powered language model, but its training only includes information up to January 2022, which presented a problem when asking it to make picks for the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Fortunately we managed to bring it up to speed by feeding it the latest statistical and betting information available. That included betting odds for all 68 teams, strength of schedule rankings, regular season records, and a number of advanced metrics like adjusted tempo, adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, and adjusted efficiency margin.
We then provided ChatGPT with historical information from recent iterations of the NCAA Tournament and asked it to consider the likelihood of March Madness upsets in certain first and second round matchups. It responded by spitting out a round-by-round breakdown with outcomes and score predictions for every March Madness game. We were especially excited to see the level of in-depth analysis in the later rounds and for the National Championship Game, in particular.
ChatGPT may not have chosen the same champ as our in-house college basketball experts, but it's hard to argue with its logic, as you'll see below.
March Madness predictions
First Round
First round - East Region
11 Duquesne vs. 6 BYU: Duquesne wins 78-72.
Duquesne has a better record and is favored according to March Madness odds. Its higher adjusted efficiency margin indicates it may have an advantage in both offense and defense.
14 Morehead State vs. 3 Illinois: Illinois wins 75-68.
Illinois has a slightly better record and is favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency gives it an edge in scoring against Morehead State.
15 South Dakota State vs. 2 Iowa State: Iowa State wins 78-70.
Iowa State has a better record and is favored according to the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency suggests it may have the scoring ability to outpace South Dakota State.
10 Drake vs 7 Washington State: Drake wins 72-68.
Drake has a better record and is favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency suggests it may have the scoring ability to edge out Washington State in a close game.
9 Northwestern vs. 8 FAU: Northwestern wins 78-65.
Northwestern has a better record and is favored according to the odds. Its higher adjusted efficiency margin indicates it may have an advantage in both offense and defense against FAU.
12 UAB vs. 5 San Diego State: San Diego State wins 72-68.
San Diego State has a better record and is favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted defensive efficiency suggests it may have the defensive prowess to hold off UAB.
16 Stetson vs. 1 UConn: UConn wins 90-60.
UConn has a better record and is heavily favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies suggest it may completely overpower Stetson.
13 Yale vs. 4 Auburn: Auburn wins 80-70.
Auburn has a superior record and a higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Yale. Strong performance indicators and betting odds favoring it suggest it has the scoring power to secure a solid victory over Yale.
First round - West Region
9 Michigan State vs. 8 Mississippi State: Michigan State wins 72-68.
Michigan State has a slightly better record and is favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted defensive efficiency could help it secure the win in a close game.
15 Long Beach State vs. 2 Arizona: Arizona wins 88-70.
Arizona has a better record and is heavily favored according to the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies indicate it has a well-rounded team capable of dominating both ends of the court.
16 Wagner vs. 1 North Carolina: North Carolina wins 82-65.
North Carolina has a better record and is heavily favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency suggests it may have the scoring prowess to pull away with a comfortable win.
10 Nevada vs. 7 Dayton: Nevada wins 78-75.
Nevada has a better record and is favored according to the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency gives it an edge in scoring against Dayton.
14 Colgate vs. 3 Baylor: Baylor wins 85-70.
Baylor has a better record and is heavily favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted efficiency margin suggests it may have an advantage in both offense and defense against Colgate.
11 New Mexico vs. 6 Clemson: Clemson wins 75-70.
Clemson has a better record and is favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency suggests it may have the scoring ability to edge out New Mexico in a close game.
13 Charleston vs. 4 Alabama: Alabama wins 78-72.
Alabama has a better record and a higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Charleston. Its stronger performance metrics and the odds favoring it indicate it has the scoring ability to defeat Charleston in a competitive matchup.
12 Grand Canyon vs. 5 Saint Mary’s: Saint Mary’s wins 80-75.
Saint Mary’s has a better record and a higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Grand Canyon. While Grand Canyon has an impressive record, Saint Mary’s stronger performance metrics and the odds slightly favoring it indicate it has the scoring ability to secure the win in a competitive game.
First round - South Region
14 Oakland vs. 3 Kentucky: Kentucky wins 85-72.
Kentucky has a better record and is heavily favored according to the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency indicates it may have the scoring power to dominate Oakland.
11 NC State vs. 6 Texas Tech: Texas Tech wins 70-65.
Texas Tech has a slightly better record and is favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted defensive efficiency suggests it may have the defensive prowess to hold off NC State.
15 Western Kentucky vs. 2 Marquette: Marquette wins 80-75.
Marquette has a better record and is favored according to the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency suggests it may have the scoring ability to outpace Western Kentucky.
10 Colorado/Boise State vs. 7 Florida: TBD
[Editor's note: For the sake of continuity in this exercise, we'll treat it as if the favorite, Florida, will advance.]
9 Texas A&M vs. 8 Nebraska: Nebraska wins 75-68.
Nebraska has a better record and a higher adjusted efficiency margin than Texas A&M. Its slightly better performance metrics and the odds favoring it indicate it is likely to emerge victorious in a closely contested game against Texas A&M.
13 Vermont vs. 4 Duke: Duke wins 85-78.
Duke has a strong record and a higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Vermont. While Vermont has an impressive record, Duke's superior offensive capabilities and the odds favoring it suggest it will outscore Vermont to secure the win.
16 Longwood vs. 1 Houston: Houston wins 90-65.
Houston boasts an outstanding record and a significantly higher adjusted efficiency margin than Longwood. The betting odds heavily favor Houston, and its superior offensive and defensive efficiencies suggest it will dominate the game against Longwood.
12 James Madison vs. 5 Wisconsin: Wisconsin wins 75-70.
Wisconsin has a better record and a higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to James Madison. While James Madison has an impressive record, Wisconsin's stronger performance metrics and the odds slightly favoring it indicate it has the scoring ability to secure the win in a close contest.
First round - Midwest Region
14 Akron vs. 3 Creighton: Creighton wins 85-80.
Creighton has a better record and is favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency suggests it may have the firepower to outscore Akron.
11 Oregon vs. 6 South Carolina: Oregon wins 70-65.
Oregon has a better record and is favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency suggests it may have the scoring ability to edge out South Carolina in a close game.
10 Colorado State vs. 7 Texas: Texas wins 68-65.
Texas has a slightly better record and is favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency suggests it may have the scoring ability to pull off a close win against UVA.
12 McNeese vs. 5 Gonzaga: Gonzaga wins 90-60.
Gonzaga has a better record and is heavily favored in the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies suggest it may completely overpower McNeese.
15 Saint Peter’s vs. 2 Tennessee: Tennessee wins 75-60.
Tennessee has a better record and is favored according to the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency suggests it may have the scoring ability to secure a comfortable win against Saint Peter’s.
13 Samford vs. 4 Kansas: Kansas wins 85-70.
Kansas has a better record and is heavily favored according to the odds. Its higher adjusted offensive efficiency indicates it may have the scoring power to dominate Samford.
16 Grambling/Montana State vs. 1 Purdue: Purdue wins 85-65.
Purdue boasts a significantly higher adjusted efficiency margin and a better record compared to either school. Its superior offensive and defensive efficiencies, along with the betting odds favoring it, suggest it will likely dominate the game.
9 TCU vs. 8 Utah State: Utah State wins 72-68.
Utah State has a better record and a higher adjusted efficiency margin compared to TCU. Its slightly superior performance metrics and the odds favoring it suggest it has the scoring power to defeat TCU in a closely contested matchup.
- Favorites picked (based on seeds): 26/32
- ATS Favorites picked to cover: 12/30 (Florida/Purdue not included)
Second Round
Second round - East Region
1 UConn vs. 9 Northwestern: UConn wins 75-70.
UConn has a better record and slightly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Northwestern. Its strong performance metrics and the odds slightly favoring it suggest it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to edge out Northwestern in a close game.
5 San Diego State vs. 4 Auburn: Auburn wins 80-75.
Auburn has a better record and higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to San Diego State. Its strong performance metrics and the odds favoring it indicate it has the scoring power to outpace San Diego State and secure the victory in a closely contested matchup.
11 Duquesne vs. 3 Illinois: Illinois wins 78-70.
Illinois has a better record and significantly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Duquesne. Its superior performance metrics and the betting odds favoring it suggest it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to secure a solid win over Duquesne.
10 Drake vs. 2 Iowa State: Iowa State wins 82-75.
Iowa State has a better record and a higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Drake. Its strong performance metrics and the odds favoring it indicate it has the scoring power to outpace Drake and secure the victory in a closely contested matchup.
Second round - West Region
1 North Carolina vs 9 Michigan State: North Carolina wins 75-70.
North Carolina has a better record and slightly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Michigan State. Its strong performance indicators and the odds slightly favoring it suggest it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to edge out Michigan State in a close game.
5 Saint Mary’s vs. 4 Alabama: Alabama wins 78-72.
Alabama has a better record and significantly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Saint Mary’s. Its superior performance metrics and the betting odds favoring it suggest it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to secure a solid win over Saint Mary’s.
6 Clemson vs. 3 Baylor: Baylor wins 85-70.
Baylor has a better record and significantly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Clemson. Its superior performance metrics and the betting odds heavily favoring it indicate it has the scoring power and defensive prowess to dominate Clemson and secure a comfortable win.
10 Nevada vs. 2 Arizona: Arizona wins 85-80.
Arizona has a better record and a higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Nevada. Its superior offensive capabilities and the odds favoring it suggest it has the scoring power to outscore Nevada and secure the victory in a high-scoring matchup.
Second round - South Region
1 Houston vs. 8 Nebraska: Houston wins 82-65.
Houston boasts an outstanding record and significantly higher adjusted efficiency margin compared to Nebraska. The betting odds heavily favor Houston, and its superior offensive and defensive efficiencies suggest it will dominate the game against Nebraska and secure a comfortable win.
5 Wisconsin vs. 4 Duke: Duke wins 75-70.
Duke has a better record and slightly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Wisconsin. Its strong performance metrics and the odds slightly favoring it suggest it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to edge out Wisconsin in a close game.
6 Texas Tech vs. 3 Kentucky: Prediction: Texas Tech wins 72-70.
Texas Tech has a slightly better record and a higher adjusted defensive efficiency compared to Kentucky. Its strong defensive prowess, combined with the odds slightly favoring them, suggests it has the ability to limit Kentucky's scoring opportunities. Expect a close game, but Texas Tech's defensive strength may give it the edge to secure a narrow victory over Kentucky.
7 Florida vs. 2 Marquette: Florida wins 78-72.
Florida has a better record and higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Marquette. Its strong performance metrics and the odds favoring it indicate it has the scoring power to outpace Marquette and secure the victory in a closely contested matchup.
Second round - Midwest Region
1 Purdue vs. 8 Utah State: Purdue wins 80-75.
Purdue has a better record and higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Utah State. Its strong performance metrics and the odds favoring it suggest it has the scoring power to outpace Utah State and secure the victory in a closely contested matchup.
5 Gonzaga vs. 4 Kansas: Gonzaga wins 80-75.
Gonzaga has a better record and significantly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Kansas. Its superior performance metrics and the betting odds favoring it suggest it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to secure a solid win over Kansas.
11 Oregon vs. 3 Creighton: Oregon wins 78-72.
Oregon has a better record and a slightly higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Creighton. Its strong performance metrics and the odds slightly favoring it indicate it has the scoring power to outpace Creighton and secure the victory in a closely contested matchup.
7 Texas vs. 2 Tennessee: Tennessee wins 72-68.
Tennessee has a better record and slightly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Texas. Its strong performance indicators and the odds slightly favoring it suggest it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to edge out Texas in a close game.
- Favorites picked (based on seed): 12/16
Sweet 16
1 UConn vs. 4 Auburn: Auburn wins 78-75.
Auburn has a better record and higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to UConn. Its strong performance metrics and the odds favoring it indicate it has the scoring power to outpace UConn and secure the victory in a closely contested matchup.
3 Illinois vs. 2 Iowa State: Illinois wins 80-72.
Illinois has a better record and significantly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Iowa State. Its superior performance metrics and the odds favoring it suggest it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to secure a solid win over Iowa State.
1 North Carolina vs. 4 Alabama: North Carolina wins 75-70.
North Carolina has a better record and slightly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Alabama. Its strong performance metrics and the odds slightly favoring it suggest it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to edge out Alabama in a close game.
3 Baylor vs. 2 Arizona: Baylor wins 82-78.
Baylor has a better record and significantly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Arizona. Its superior performance metrics and the odds favoring it indicate it has the scoring power and defensive prowess to secure a solid win over Arizona in a closely contested matchup.
4 Duke vs. 1 Houston: Duke wins 85-80.
Duke has a better record and higher adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Houston. Its strong performance metrics and the odds slightly favoring it suggest it has the scoring power to outpace Houston and secure the victory in a closely contested matchup.
6 Texas Tech vs. 7 Florida: Texas Tech wins 78-75.
Texas Tech has a better record and higher adjusted defensive efficiency compared to Florida. Its strong defensive prowess and the odds slightly favoring it suggest it has the ability to limit Florida's scoring opportunities and secure a narrow victory in a closely contested matchup.
1 Purdue vs. 5 Gonzaga: Gonzaga wins 80-72.
Gonzaga has a better record and significantly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Purdue. Its superior performance metrics and the odds favoring it indicate it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to secure a solid win over Purdue.
11 Oregon vs. 2 Tennessee: Tennessee wins 75-70.
Tennessee has a better record and slightly higher adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to Oregon. Its strong performance metrics and the odds slightly favoring it suggest it has the scoring ability and defensive prowess to edge out Oregon in a close game.
- Favorites picked (based on seed): 2/8
Elite Eight
4 Auburn vs. 3 Illinois: Illinois wins 78-75.
Auburn's success largely relies on its fast-paced offense, but Illinois boasts a strong defensive efficiency that could disrupt Auburn's rhythm. Illinois also holds an advantage in rebounding, which could give it crucial second-chance opportunities. However, Auburn's ability to force turnovers and create fast-break opportunities could keep it in the game. Ultimately, Illinois' balanced offense and sturdy defense give it the edge to secure a narrow victory.
1 North Carolina vs. 3 Baylor: Baylor wins 82-80.
This matchup features two teams with potent offenses and solid defenses. North Carolina's strength lies in its offensive efficiency and rebounding prowess, while Baylor excels in perimeter shooting and forcing turnovers. Expect a high-scoring affair with both teams trading baskets. The outcome may hinge on which team can execute better in crunch time, but Baylor's ability to convert from beyond the arc and create turnovers could give it a slight edge in a closely contested game.
4 Duke vs. 6 Texas Tech: Duke wins 75-70.
Duke's offensive firepower, led by its talented backcourt, poses a significant challenge for Texas Tech's stout defense. However, Texas Tech's defensive intensity and ability to limit opponents' scoring could keep it in the game. The key matchup to watch will be Texas Tech's defense against Duke's perimeter shooting. If Texas Tech can disrupt Duke's offensive flow and capitalize on turnovers, it has a chance to pull off the upset. However, Duke's overall offensive versatility and depth give them the edge to emerge victorious in a hard-fought battle.
5 Gonzaga vs. 2 Tennessee: Gonzaga wins 80-75.
Gonzaga enters this matchup as the favorite due to its balanced offense and solid defensive play. Tennessee's strength lies in its defensive prowess and ability to control the paint. However, Gonzaga's efficient scoring and versatility on offense could pose problems for Tennessee's defense. The outcome may depend on Gonzaga's ability to establish its inside presence and exploit Tennessee's defensive weaknesses. If Gonzaga can control the tempo and execute its game plan effectively, it should come out on top in what promises to be a closely contested matchup.
Final Four
3 Illinois vs. 3 Baylor: Baylor wins 78-75.
This game features two powerhouse teams with contrasting styles. Baylor's strength lies in its elite perimeter shooting, aggressive defense, and ability to force turnovers. On the other hand, Illinois thrives on its balanced offense, dominant rebounding, and solid interior defense. The key to this game will likely be Baylor's three-point shooting against Illinois' interior defense and rebounding. If Baylor can knock down shots from beyond the arc and create turnovers, it has a good chance of securing the win. However, if Illinois can control the paint, limit Baylor's second-chance opportunities, and exploit any defensive lapses, it could pull off the upset. Overall, expect a closely contested battle between two top-tier teams, but Baylor's outside shooting and defensive pressure may give it the edge.
4 Duke vs. 5 Gonzaga: Gonzaga wins 82-78.
This matchup pits two perennial powerhouses against each other in what promises to be an exciting showdown. Duke boasts a potent offense led by its talented guards and forwards, while Gonzaga relies on its efficient scoring, rebounding, and disciplined play. The key matchup to watch will be Gonzaga's frontcourt against Duke's interior defense. If Gonzaga can establish dominance in the paint and control the boards, it could dictate the pace of the game and wear down Duke's defense. However, Duke's perimeter shooting and ability to create turnovers could keep it in contention. Ultimately, Gonzaga's overall depth, experience, and efficiency on both ends of the floor may give it the slight edge to emerge victorious in a closely contested battle.
National Championship
3 Baylor vs. 5 Gonzaga: Gonzaga wins 82-80.
This matchup is a clash between two of the top teams in college basketball, with both Baylor and Gonzaga possessing high-powered offenses and strong defensive capabilities. Baylor's strength lies in its perimeter shooting, aggressive defense, and ability to force turnovers, while Gonzaga thrives on its efficient scoring, rebounding, and disciplined play. The key to this game will likely be Gonzaga's ability to control the pace and establish dominance in the paint against Baylor's stout defense. If Gonzaga can exploit its size advantage and capitalize on second-chance opportunities, it has a good chance of coming out on top. However, Baylor's tenacity, three-point shooting, and defensive pressure could keep them in contention until the final buzzer. Expect a closely contested battle between two elite teams, but Gonzaga's overall efficiency and depth may give it the slight edge to clinch the national championship title.
- No. 1/2 seeds to reach the Elite Eight: 2/8
- No. 1/2 seeds to reach the Final Four: 0/8
- Double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16: 1
