Auburn will get its NCAA Tournament run going as it meets in-state foe Alabama State.
The Tigers backed into the tournament losing two of their last three games, while the Hornets escaped the play-in game with a two point win.
My Alabama State vs. Auburn predictions and free March Madness picks forego the side, in favor of a team total prop that fades the No. 16 seed.
Who will win Alabama State vs Auburn?
Auburn.
We may not need much analysis here. Forget just Alabama State. This collection of 16 seeds is some of the worst in KenPom history. There will be no magical run this season. The Tigers are too talented, bigger, and stronger.
Alabama State vs Auburn prediction
My best bet: Alabama State team total Under 59.5 (-110 at bet365)
The most direct path to scoring on the Auburn Tigers in the halfcourt and subsequently beating them is via catch-and-shoot threes. There's no doubt about it; it's a weakness for the Tigers.
They'll enter this game ranking 180th defensively in catch-and-shoot 3PT defense and 284th in off-the-dribble 3PT defense. In other words, they are the poster child for a team that can get upset in the tournament but a less talented opponent that comes out blazing from deep. That would have to be the case for Alabama State to make a half interesting. But they are far from that team.
Even through the full schedule of the SWAC, the Hornets shot just 31% from deep, which ranks them slightly below the national average. We don't have many comps to simulate how they'd react to Auburn's size, lateral quickness, and athleticism. The closest would be when they played SEC opponent LSU way back at the beginning of the season. The Hornets went 1-20 from deep. Of course, that's somewhat of an aberration, but it's closer to what we can expect here, more so than some of the Alabama State conference performances.
Alabama State has played four games against five powerful opponents this season, exceeding this point total in all but one. That may make you think that number was a bit short, but that doesn't highlight that in every game, the total has gone under; over 70 possessions were played. Again, there's not a ton of context here because Auburn has played somewhat metrically this bad all season. However, the closest comps tell you this could be a slower-paced game, as matchups with Kent State, Vermont, and Monmouth saw less than 70 possessions. All three of those games saw Auburn's opponent score less than 60, too.
Playing the 1 seed is rarely fun for the 16 seed except for the two obvious distinctions (and perhaps a handful of others), but this is particularly unlucky for the Hornets. Auburn has allowed over a point per possession in three of its last four games, including the 1.32 PPP it allowed to Texas A&M. With that in mind, I'm expecting an extra emphasis on defense in this matchup, which is going to make scoring even tougher for Alabama State.
Alabama State vs Auburn same-game parlay (SGP)
Alabama State TT Under 59.5
Auburn -32
If a Johni Broome point total of 18.5 points pops up before tip, I may be inclined to grab some Under, but with no player props available, we're forced to be a bit bland with our same-game parlay. I paired Auburn to get the cover with our best bet.
My projections made this spread -33.5. Auburn is well-rested and has an advantage at every position on the floor. Whether they cover this number will be a matter of how much interest they have, and given their recent poor play, I'm guessing that interest will be high.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your March Madness ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 15+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Alabama State vs Auburn odds
Alabama State vs Auburn live odds
Alabama State vs Auburn opening odds
- Spread: Alabama State +32 | Auburn -32
- Moneyline: Alabama State +7500 | Auburn -100000
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Alabama State vs Auburn betting trend to know
Auburn has hit the 1H Moneyline in 27 of their last 34 games (+8.45 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama State vs. Auburn.
How to watch Alabama State vs Auburn
| Region | South |
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:50 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Alabama State vs Auburn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
