Saturday’s Elite Eight showdown between the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils and No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide promises to be one of the most exciting matchups of March Madness. Given the firepower on both sides, this is a great game for player prop betting.
Here are my favorite March Madness picks and player prop predictions for Duke vs. Alabama on March 29.
Alabama vs Duke March Madness props
- Mark Sears 4+ 3-pointers (+225 at bet365)
- Khaman Maluach Over 8.5 points (-115 at bet365)
- Grant Nelson Under 10.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Alabama vs Duke March Madness props
Mark Sears 4+ 3-pointers (+225 at bet365)
Mark Sears put on an all-time tournament performance versus BYU in the Sweet 16. The Alabama Crimson Tide’s veteran guard was lights-out from long range, knocking down 10 of his 16 shots from beyond the arc.
Despite that outburst, Sears’ expectations for this Elite Eight encounter with the Duke Blue Devils are relatively tempered.
His 3-point total is at 2.5 triples (Over -115), with his two games prior to the Sweet 16 anchoring those expectations. Sears was a collective 1-for-9 from 3-point range in wins over Saint Mary’s and Robert Morris, but Alabama didn’t need him to shoulder the scoring load like it did on Thursday.
The Blue Devils’ defense presents a lot of pushback on the perimeter. Duke is 36th in opponent success from outside, giving up less than seven total 3-point makes per outing.
All that said, Sears is the type of player that gets hot and stays hot. While he rolled into the postseason in a shooting funk, we’ve seen the senior guard step up on the biggest stages, including a 7-for-11 night from distance against Clemson in last year’s Elite Eight.
The Crimson Tide are 7-point underdogs versus Duke with a high total of 173.5 points. Those odds set up a game script in which Bama is battling from behind and trying to keep pace with the Blue Devils’ ultra-efficient offense.
With the Tide unable to corral Duke on defense, Sears will have no choice but to trade 3s for 2s and stay hot from outside. The volume needed for four or more triples will be there for sure.
Khaman Maluach Over 8.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Cooper Flagg is a consensus first overall choice in the upcoming NBA Draft, but his teammate Khaman Maluach is moving up the board.
The fellow freshman is coming off a great game against Arizona, in which he scored 13 points and plagued the Wildcats on the glass, grabbing six rebounds. The 7-footer will have a big advantage against Alabama in the Elite Eight.
The Crimson Tide are terrible on defense. Alabama just allowed 50 points in the paint to BYU and are among the worst teams at protecting the rim and keeping opponents off the offensive boards.
Maluach has great touch around the rim and will get his share of touches inside against Alabama.
Duke will try and slow down the tempo of this game, as to not get sucked into a track meet with a speedy Bama attack. That means feeding the ball inside and shooting high-percentage attempts, forcing the Tide to start the bulk of possessions from the inbounds.
Player models for Maluach call for 10+ points on Saturday. He’s put up eight or more points in all six of the Blue Devils’ postseason games, and his field goal attempts should get a bump against Bama’s bad interior defense.
Grant Nelson Under 10.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Alabama big man Grant Nelson runs into a wall of towering Duke defenders in the Elite Eight.
The Blue Devils boast the biggest team in the college ranks, anchored by Flagg, Maluach, and Patrick Ngongba II.
Not only are those Dukies tall, but they’re extremely athletic and can get up and down the floor with Bama’s pace better than most bigs. Duke is among the best teams at protecting the paint but also defending the high screen-and-roll action that Nelson initiates for the Crimson Tide.
He’ll also be stymied on the offensive glass, with the Blue Devils ranked Top 20 in many rebounding metrics and allowing only 8.4 second chance points per contest.
Nelson has gone for double-digits just once in Alabama’s five postseason games, scoring 12 points against Saint Mary’s in the Round of 32 squash.
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