The Colorado Buffaloes and Florida Gators will meet in the March Madness bracket this afternoon after the Buffaloes won Monday's play-in game.
The Buffs were impressive on Monday night in its win against Boise State to get here in a game that went back and forth. Colorado made enough plays down the stretch in a seven-point win over the Broncos. It was a continuation of an impressive end of the season for the Buffs, who won eight of their last nine games to end the season.
Despite a loss in the SEC Championship game, Florida has looked dangerous heading into the Big Dance, stacking up three impressive wins in a row before their finals loss.
What's the best bet for your March Madness picks in this one? Find out when we look at the March Madness odds and give it in our Colorado vs. Florida predictions and picks for Friday, March 21st.
Colorado vs Florida best odds
Colorado vs Florida picks and predictions
What do you need in March? The most straightforward answer is strong guard play, and that's why Colorado is in trouble here. Florida should do enough to get the job done. Colorado will not have enough regular answers for its scoring punches, and I trust Florida to make the critical plays late to win the game. While I lean to the Gators on the spread, there are other places to look for better value.
The Buffs will have some advantages on the interior, especially without Micah Handlogten's versatility after the Gators big man suffered a season-ending injury. However, those advantages can only do so much because the Buffaloes are dwarfed in the backcourt by the combination of Zyon Pullin and Walter Clayton.
Pullin, in particular, will have ample opportunities to score.
We'll start with Colorado's anemic spot-up defense. It ranks in the Bottom 22% of college basketball, allowing .972 points per possession and 37% shooting. This is something Arizona's Caleb Love exploited in conference play when he made three 3-pointers and scored 19 points. Pullin can do something similar in this matchup. He, statistically, has been better on spot-ups this season, owning a 48% shooting rate on spot-up sets, which is in the Top 5% of college basketball. He'll take advantage of this with a high volume of shots — and makes — from deep.
Additionally, Pullin can exploit Colorado's pick-and-roll defense, which is even worse than its perimeter. Tristen De Silva and other Colorado bigs have been routinely manipulated in ball-screen actions. Again, this is a place where Pullin is elite, entering with a 40% shooting rating on pick-and-roll sets, ranking him among the SEC's best.
Not scoring from deep? Pullin should be able to create open shots on middle screens if needed. It's one of the reasons I love this play so much. So often, in these spots, you're reliant on high-variance jump shots going in, but that's not the case here. Pullin should have a high degree of success getting to the rim for high-percentage buckets.
Give me Pullin to get the job done.
He's only gone Over this number in one of his last three games, but that's mostly been a function of his unselfishness more than anything. Florida head coach Todd Golden is an exceptional game prep coach and he knows his best path to victory requires getting the ball in Pullin's hands as much as possible to exploit these mismatches. This number is too short, and I'd play it up to 16.5, as my projections have Pullin slated for just over 18 points.
My best bet: Zyon Pullin Over 15.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Colorado vs Florida same-game parlay
Zyon Pullin Over 15.5 points
Florida moneyline
By taking Florida to win straight up, we're creating a highly correlated same-game parlay.
When Pullin has played well this season, it's usually been good for the Gators. UF has won seven of eight games this season when Pullin has scored 19 or more points, and that's nearly the exact projection we have for him this game. I'm backing the better guards in this game, and that's Florida's by a wide margin.
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Colorado vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis
One of my favorite things about backing Golden-coached teams is his prevalent use of analytics. Generally, if there's an obvious mismatch to exploit, he will, and if he does it effectively, it should lean toward a win.
As I said, I expect Florida to win. I have no interest in backing the spread because this projects to be a reasonably tight game. The Gators will have to slow down a hot Colorado team to accomplish this, as it is worth mentioning the run the Buffs have been on. They'll enter this game with nine wins in their last 10 games.
I have no opinion on the total. It is nearly identical to my projection of 159.
We have seen small movements to the Under. This number opened at 159.5 and has since been bet down to 158.5. Florida has been an Overs bettor dream lately, with its games going in that direction eight of the last ten times it's hit the floor.
Colorado vs Florida betting trend to know
Colorado is 9-1 in its last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. Florida.
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Colorado vs Florida game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Friday, March 22, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Colorado vs Florida key injuries
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