Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg leads the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (32-3) against the No. 9 seed Baylor Bears (20-14) in the Second Round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Expectations are through the roof — and the precocious Blue Devil is more than ready to rise to the occasion.
Here are my top March Madness picks for Sunday, March 23.
Cooper Flagg player prop picks
- Best bet
2+ made threes
(+140 at bet365) - SGP pick
2+ made threes
18+ points
8+ rebounds
(+380 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Cooper Flagg best bet
2+ made threes (+140 at bet365)
The Duke Blue Devils didn’t need Cooper Flagg to be at his best in a 94-49 demolition of No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s. It was always going to be a cakewalk for Duke, and their star youngster was slowly returning to form after spraining his ankle in the ACC Tournament.
The biggest takeaway from that opening round trouncing is that Flagg looked “full steam ahead,” just as coach Jon Scheyer stated heading into the Big Dance. That’s music to the ears of anyone who picked Duke to win it all in their bracket challenge, but it’s troublesome for Scott Drew and the Baylor Bears.
As has become a theme lately in Waco, Baylor is more effective offensively (16th in adjusted efficiency per KenPom) than defensively (57th). Openings will be there for a Duke offense averaging 83.0 ppg, but the question is, “Which type of openings?”.
Drew’s defensive philosophy involves walling off the rim. The Bears rank first in near-proximity attempt rate (Haslametrics), meaning they allow fewer percentage shots at the rim against the average opponent than any other team in the country.
Flagg’s primary way to win is by using his combination of physicality, aggression, and fluidity to beat defenders to the rack. Baylor’s defensive tactics will limit this option, forcing him to use some of the other weapons in his arsenal with greater frequency.
One of those weapons is the three-ball. Baylor is happy to let teams fly away from downtown, ranking 274th in 3-point attempt rate, with the sixth-farthest average shooting proximity (Haslametrics). It’s not like the Bears have been particularly adept at closing out, either, as opponents are shooting 34.9% (276th) from behind the arc.
Flagg shoots 36.7% from 3-point range and likely sees an uptick in usage as a shooter given the matchup. We’re getting +140 odds for him to can two triples in his team’s biggest game of the season to date — a moment where stars like Flagg are supposed to shine brightest.
Sign me up for the Over.
Cash your March Madness ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 15+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Cooper Flagg same-game parlay
Flagg 2+ threes
Flagg 18+ points
Flagg 8+ rebounds
Baylor is a jump-shooting team and that will likely be apparent in a matchup against a tough Duke defense led by big man Khaman Maluach. The Bears aren’t known for drawing fouls (18.5 free throw attempts per game) and the Blue Devils do a great job of avoiding sending teams to the line, ranking third in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
This should lead to plenty of rebounding opportunities for Flagg, who averages 7.5 rebounds per game for a Duke team that ranks top 10 in rebounding percentage (55.8%).
Flagg has posted fewer than 18 points in six of his last seven games but it’s time to buy the dip. He averages 18.7 ppg and is facing a Baylor defense that is nothing special. The Blue Devils haven’t needed him to be at the peak of his powers in blowouts against overmatched opponents, but that narrative will change as the tournament goes along, and Duke won’t take any chances against Scott Drew's program.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
