Tonight’s Final Four odds matchup between the UConn Huskies and Alabama Crimson Tide promises plenty of action, with a taller Over/Under total in the 160s.
In fact, should this number stick, this game would have the seventh-tallest total of the 2024 March Madness Bracket and ranks among a handful of NCAA Tournament games promising plenty of points, with only 39 tournament tilts closing with 160-plus Over/Under since 1998.
That projected offense makes UConn vs. Alabama an excellent opportunity to string some of our best Final Four picks together for an exciting same-game parlay.
As with all parlays, recognize the risk. The more legs added, the tougher it gets to cash in. So, be mindful of the selections and reduce your wager size, accordingly.
Here’s my best Final Four SGP pick for Alabama vs. UConn on April 6.
March Madness Final Four same game parlay
Click on pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Alabama vs UConn SGP pick for Final Four
Mark Sears 3+ made threes
Tristen Newton 5+ assists
Cam Spencer 10+ points
UConn moneyline
30% boost available
I’m going with bet365’s same-game parlay odds for this Final Four clash based on a few factors.
The “milestone” markets/alternative odds keep it simple and allow you to bet on and above a certain number, rather than getting burned by the hook. As well, bet365 has an early payout option on moneyline wagers, grading those outright bets as a winner if the team goes up by 15 points at any time in the game. It’s a little collapse insurance, which does happen during March Madness.
Even better, bet365 is offering a 30% profit boost to a 3+ leg SGP for either of Saturday's Final Four games, boosting our potential winnings even further.
Mark Sears 3+ made threes
First stop on our UConn-Alabama SGP is Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears. I’m taking him to hit at least three 3-pointers on Saturday. Alabama is always a threat to fire up a ton of looks from long range, but since the Tide are 11.5-point underdogs the game script says Sears & Co. will be playing from behind.
That puts even more pressure on Bama to take, and make, shots from beyond the arc. Sears has sunk three or more triples in three of his four NCAA games so far and has made three from downtown in 10 of his last 16 outings, going back to SEC play.
Tristen Newton 5+ assists
Second, I look to UConn’s to-it-all guard Tristen Newton and take his 5-plus assist milestone prop. I have Newton projected for a massive game against Alabama. He’s handed out five or more assists in three of the Huskies four NCAA games, and those came against slower-tempo, defensive foes.
The Crimson Tide’s pace and poor defense promise plenty of points, and opportunities for assists. Newton is averaging 6.9 dimes over his last 14 games and is excellent at grabbing the rebound on the defensive end, pushing the ball in transition, and finding the open teammate for the bucket. He’s going to do this five or more times tonight.
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Cam Spencer 10+ points
The third leg of our Final Four SGP stops at Cam Spencer’s points prop. The Connecticut guard has a scoring total of 15.5 for this game with the Over heavily juiced, but we’re going to keep it safe and say 10-plus points against Alabama.
Spencer has put up 11 or more in all four NCAA outings and has scored in double figures 23 times in the past 26 games going all the way back to December. Connecticut rarely played at a pace like Alabama’s and the Tide are the fourth-worst defense the Huskies have encountered all season.
UConn moneyline
We close out our Final Four same-game parlay pick with UConn to win outright. The Huskies are big favorites and -450 on the moneyline alone. It may seem a little greedy, but that additional bet moves the SGP from +175 to +210 and is the lowest-risk leg of the bunch.
I projected a big night from the reigning champs, who will welcome Alabama’s approach. The Huskies have excellent scoring depth and are the most adaptable offense in the country, allowing them to take whatever the defense gives them. In Alabama’s case, it’s plenty. As mentioned, if UConn gets up by 15 points at any time, this ML cashes automatically. FYI: the Huskies have won their four NCAA Tournament games by an average margin of almost 28 points.
