Gonzaga vs Purdue Predictions, Picks, and Odds for March Madness Sweet 16 Matchup

The No. 5 seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the No. 1 seed Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16 tonight. The Boilermakers were also a No. 1 seed last year and were upset in the first round of the March Madness bracket but this season they've steamrolled their first two opponents. Meanwhile, the Zags are coming off a blowout win against Kansas where they took over in the second half.

The Boilermakers are a popular college basketball pick to win the National Championship with the third-best futures odds at +650 while the Zags have the 10th-best odds at +2,500. March Madness odds have the Boilermakers as five-point favorites with the Over/Under at 154.5 for this Midwest region clash. Here are my free March Madness picks for Gonzaga vs. Purdue on March 29.

Gonzaga vs Purdue best odds

Gonzaga vs Purdue picks and predictions

These teams previously clashed at the Maui Invitational in November with the Purdue Boilermakers beating the Gonzaga Bulldogs 73-63. Expect a far higher-scoring contest this time around since Purdue is third in the country in adjusted offensive efficient while Gonzaga's up-tempo attack ranks seventh. 

The Zags went just 6-for-32 from beyond the arc and had an ugly 24.6% turnover rate in that previous meeting which is shocking since they are 23rd in the country in turnover rate (13.9%) for the season while Purdue is 338th in opponent TO rate (13.6%).

The Boilermakers knocked down just four of 17 attempts from deep in that game and turned the ball over far more than usual despite Gonzaga ranking just 240th in opponent TO rate (15.8%). 

Considering Purdue leads the country in 3-point percentage (40.9%) while Gonzaga has shot a sizzling 39.2% from long range since January, expect positive regression from both sides. Especially with Gonzaga 338th in the country at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets while Purdue is just outside the Top 250.

There are other areas where their offensive strengths line up with their flaws on defense. The Boilermakers have strong defensive analytics but struggle to defend in transition (269th in efficiency) and are 200th at defending cutters. The Zags are 38th at transition offense and rank fourth at cuts while running those plays at a high frequency. 

The Bulldogs are below average at defending at the rim and they don't have the bigs to slow down National Player of the Year favorite Zach Edey (24.5 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 62.3 FG%). The total is currently sitting at 154.5 with KenPom projecting a total of 158 and Bart Torvik projecting 159. Expect both offenses to roll here and bet the Over.

My best bet: Over 154 (-110 at Pinnacle)

Gonzaga vs Purdue same-game parlay

Over 154.5

Zach Edey Over 25.5 points

Purdue moneyline

+300 at DraftKings

The Zags were seldom threatened inside by the smaller frontcourts in the WCC. However, they were exposed against bigger frontcourt players earlier this season and that includes the previous clash with Purdue. Edey dropped 25 points and pulled down 13 boards in that contest and he also scored 23 points on 10-for-16 shooting when these teams squared off during the 2022-23 season.

Purdue beat Gonzaga by double digits in both of those previous meetings at neutral sites. Although I'm a bit reluctant to lay the points with the Boilermakers here I'm more than willing to back them on the ML in this SGP. After all, they are the better defensive team and have the best player on the floor in Edey.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Gonzaga vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

• The line opened with Gonzaga at -4.5 and the O/U at 154 and both have ticked up by half a point with the spread now at -5 and the total at 154.5.
• When these teams faced off in November at a neutral site the spread was at Purdue -5 with the total at 154.
• The Zags struggled during their non-conference schedule, going 0-4 SU and ATS against Purdue, UConn, San Diego State, and Washington before beating Kentucky in February.
• The Boilermakers looked dominant during their non-conference slate going 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS against Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, and Marquette at neutral sites. All five of those foes are in the Sweet 16.

Gonzaga vs Purdue betting trend to know

The Over is 8-3 in Gonzaga's last 11 games while cashing in 23 of Purdue's previous 34 contests (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs. Purdue.

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