Iowa State and Lipscomb meet in Milwaukee in an intriguing clash of styles on Friday, March 21.
The biggest story of this game is Iowa State's Keshon Gilbert not being part of it. The Cyclones finished the year with mixed results, going 2-2 in their last four games, including a loss to BYU in the Big 12 Tournament.
Lipscomb won its conference tournament to get here but was scorching hot even beyond that, with nine wins in its last 10 games.
My Lipscomb vs. Iowa State predictions and March Madness picks believe Joshua Jefferson won't let the Cyclones go home early if he can help it.
Who will win Lipscomb vs Iowa State?
As much as I wanted to get there on Lipscomb, as it’s a team I’ve bet frequently throughout the season, I can’t.
This schematic nightmare for the Bison's dynamic motion-based offense, which should be catapulted out of rhythm against Iowa State. When Lipscomb can’t score efficiently, it can’t win. Give me the Cyclones.
Lipscomb vs Iowa State prediction
My best bet: Joshua Jefferson Over 3.5 assists (-105 at bet365)
If Keshon’s Gilbert was healthy, I would take the Iowa State Cyclones to cover comfortably. Without him, things get murky.
The Lipscomb Bisons are a well-coached team with a proud tournament history, and Iowa State has faded down the stretch. Naturally, this would perk up the ears of the upset lover, and I can’t say I blame them at all.
The problem is, from a scheme perspective, this is a terrible matchup for Lipscomb. It’s made me avoid the traditional markets and venture into the props. I’m taking Joshua Jefferson Over 3.5 assists as my best bet.
Jefferson has done it all for most of the season, and his role has heightened amid Gilbert's absence. He went Over this assists number in both Big 12 conference tournament games, and it makes sense. Jefferson sees the most significant usage increase with no Gilbert on the floor and the most significant assist rate increase.
The good thing about this matchup is that not only do we have that working for us, but this matchup should give us plenty of chances for Jefferson to drop dimes.
So much of this is just plain usage. Jefferson will be the secondary initiator of the offense, and by proxy, his assist value immediately goes up.
The Lipscomb defense should also struggle to defend a high-end power like Iowa State off the ball. Some of the best proof of that is the 1.03 points per possession that Lipscomb allowed on perimeter cuts while playing against Top 50 teams this year. That’s well above the national average and will be problematic against a team running these sets at a high clip.
Jefferson should also be able to get two dimes via rebounds and kicks. Iowa State will make Lipscomb prove they can hold up to an extensive amount of rim runs after being one of the worst rim defenses in their conference this season. That will also make them exploitable on the offensive glass.
The after-effects of that aren’t favorable for the Bison, either. They’ve allowed 1.18 points per possession on “rebound and scramble” plays this season, ranking in the Bottom 25% of college basketball. To put it plainly, there are plenty of routes where Jefferson can cash this number as long as he’s on the floor.
Lipscomb vs Iowa State same-game parlay (SGP)
Joshua Jefferson Over 3.5 assists
Lipscomb team total Under 64.5
Iowa State to win race to 20+ points
We’re pairing our best bet with two legs to make up this same-game parlay.
The first of these is Lipscomb to go Under its point total of 65. I have real issues about Lipscomb’s offense against easily the most high-ball pressure defense it’s seen this year. There’s a real chance its rhythm is wholly disrupted, and it’s not like the pace should be a breakneck one anyway. I projected this number at 62.
For the last leg, I took the Cyclones to reach 20 points first. Sure, this is a class jump for Lipscomb, but I’d be more willing to back them if they were playing some conservative defense that didn’t cause so much chaos in the halfcourt. That’s not Iowa State.
I suspect ball pressure causes easy run-out transition baskets early when the Cyclones are most rested. This should get them to 20 points relatively quickly.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lipscomb vs Iowa State odds
Lipscomb vs Iowa State live odds
Lipscomb vs Iowa State opening odds
- Spread: Lipscomb +13.5 | Iowa State -13.5
- Moneyline: Lipscomb +850 | Iowa State -1400
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 | Under 142.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Lipscomb vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Iowa State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 20 of their last 36 games (+1.50 Units / 4% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Lipscomb vs. Iowa State.
How to watch Lipscomb vs Iowa State
| Region | South |
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Lipscomb vs Iowa State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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