Sweet 16 weekend has arrived for the Women's NCAA Tournament and No. 3 LSU will face some familiar faces from earlier this season, the No. 2 NC State Wolfpack in Regional 2.
While all eyes were on Notre Dame in the ACC throughout this season, NC State went under the radar by taking the honor of being on top of the conference once the regular season wrapped up.
And though the LSU Tigers did meet the Wolfpack early on to go on and defeat them with an 82-65 victory, this is not the same team from November.
Kim Mulkey's squad can't sleep on a team that has gone back to the drawing board and has made the improvements to match with the best of them, and NC State making it this far proves why LSU should stay wide awake in this showdown.
Read on for my LSU vs. NC State predictions and March Madness picks for Friday, March 28, before the action tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Who will win LSU vs NC State?
Let's rewind before we look forward, shall we? As prefaced above, the Lady Tigers met the NC State Wolfpack when this season began and to no one's surprise LSU walked away with a double-digit win.
Will this time around provide a similar result?
Well we'll get into that shortly, but one's thing's for sure: The Wolfpack will be out for blood.
However, Mulkey has made it to this stage — Sweet 16, specifically — and beyond, countless times in her coaching career.
And not to discredit Wes Moore's experience, but it's safe to say that LSU's leader in charge is true to this, not new to this and has figured out how to will each respective team to a deep tournament run.
The Tigers will undoubtedly be tested in this matchup, but I'm sure they've done enough homework to adjust and outdo NC State once more to make it the Elite 8.
LSU vs NC State prediction
My best bet: Over 152 (-110 at bet365)
It would be an understatement to say that the first and second rounds of the tournament have been a cakewalk for both the LSU Tigers and NC State Wolfpack.
First, Wes Moore's squad managed to dust off Vermont with a 20-point win and handle Michigan State by 34.
On the other hand, the Tigers did even more damage by scoring 100 points in each of their blowout wins over San Diego State and Florida State.
This is where I feel that they meet their match, or at least the road to the Final Four, finally gets challenging for them.
LSU has a big three of its own, thanks to standout sensation Flau'Jae Johnson (18.8 ppg), Aneesah Morrow (18.5 ppg), and Mikaylah Williams (17.4 ppg) bringing much of its offense to the table.
Despite dealing with injuries, the Tigers are getting their point across quite clearly that they're just as solid of a team to go for the national championship even after Angel Reese's departure to the WNBA.
Defense. This is where NC State comes in because a key aspect of their game that has drastically improved since their last time out against LSU has been just that: tightening up the defensive play.
It will take a hell of a lot to keep the Tigers trio contained. Though the Wolfpack are to be taken seriously under the dominant force that is Madison Hayes — who averages 7.3 rebounds per game — and their hunger for revenge, I see this one raining buckets in Spokane, especially if NC State doesn't find answers early humble their opponent.
With Aziaha James (18.1 ppg), Zoe Brooks (14.0 ppg), Saniya Rivers (11.9 ppg), and Hayes (11.0 ppg) all averaging double-digits for NC State, I see them giving LSU's big three a run for their money by keeping this close, but making this a high-scoring affair.
I'll take the Over to make this Sweet 16 matchup even sweeter.
LSU vs NC State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 152
LSU 1H moneyline
LSU -3.5
As previously mentioned, both of these teams just have too many offensive weapons for me to believe that this will be anything close to taking the Under. Each starting lineup comes locked and loaded, which includes Flau'Jae Johnson in the conversation for one of those said weapons.
Life without Angel Reese has been different for LSU, especially for Johnson, who has had more of the spotlight on her for most of this season.
With more pressure comes more responsibility, and Johnson has blocked out any and all distractions outside of the tournament (including temporarily deactivating her social media accounts) after a quiet 13-point performance in the last round where much of her effort wasn't heavily needed, I see that changing against NC State.
The Tigers will need Johnson to turn it up a notch to motivate Morrow and Williams or vice versa.
Either way, I see Johnson's prolific scoring game helping lift LSU to win the first half over the Wolfpack, which ultimately leads me to the last leg of my parlay.
Last but not least, I have the Tigers winning, but by a very close margin, but larger than the spread suggests.
The Wolfpack are not going to come out and lie down with November still heavily on their minds, but I believe the Tigers manage to create some breathing room down the stretch to seal the deal.
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LSU vs NC State opening odds
- Spread: LSU -3.5 (-115) | NC State +3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: LSU -165 | NC State +140
- Over/Under: Over 152 (-110) | Under 152 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
How to watch LSU vs NC State
| Location | Spokane Arena, Spokane, WA |
| Date | Friday, 3-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
LSU vs NC State key injuries
LSU : No key injuries.
NC State : No key injuries.
Not intended for use in MA.
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