The Auburn Tigers and Michigan State Spartans will meet at State Farm Arena tonight for the right to go to the Final Four.
Michigan State got this opportunity after a late rally against Ole Miss. Auburn is looking to continue to avenge its first-round upset at the hands of Yale last season.
Read on for my Auburn vs. Michigan State predictions and March Madness picks for Sunday, March 30, and see why I believe the Spartans will at least keep it close.
Who will win Michigan State vs Auburn?
Auburn, at least more often than not. You feel that Johni Broome is sitting on a monster game at some point. He's had a good tournament, but we've yet to see that dominant performance where he carries his team to a win.
He's certainly capable of it here.
The Michigan State defense has posted great interior defensive numbers all season, but they are, for the most part, all defenders who play below the rim. Broome usually dominates those types of players, and I think his play will ultimately be the difference in a very tight game that comes down to a final possession.
Michigan State vs Auburn prediction
My best bet: Michigan State +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
Dare I fade the Auburn Tigers again? Even with some apprehension, that is the case. I'm taking the points with Michigan State Spartans as my best bet here.
It's no disrespect to the Tigers; in fact, I took the contrarian approach of picking them to win it all in most of my bracket pools — that's much different than betting on a game-by-game basis, though.
We took the points with Michigan against the Tigers in the last round. We saw it blow up in the final five minutes with a ridiculous performance by Tahaad Pettiford. He finished with 20 points and took a game that Blue covered for nearly 90% of the game into a 13-point Auburn win.
That instance of an otherworldly performance makes it difficult for me to get off my pregame prospect that Michigan was the right side. Thus, it doesn't change my opinion here. I made this number 4, so I see value in Sparty.
The worry against Michigan was that Auburn's dribble creation would eventually win out, even though much of the Tigers' post-offense would be neutralized. That played out.
Sure, Johni Broome finished with 22 points, but at least half of those were very difficult scores, and he finished with five turnovers.
The story here is that Michigan State can do a little of both, but since Auburn's backcourt has been the story over the last two tournament games, let's start there.
Sparty is very good at dribble defense. You can attack them with back cuts and big slips, but they've also been excellent defensively in isolation situations this season. This season, they've held opponents to .64 points per possession on off-the-dribble scores, which is in the 96th percentile nationally.
If you're looking for an SEC corollary, it would be Tennessee. That's a Vols team that beat Auburn in the SEC Championship and held them to 53 points in the matchup before that.
So much of the Tigers' ability to play half games and cover against Crieghton or Michigan has been their backcourt going berserk at the end. I don't suspect that happens here.
In addition, I expect Michigan State to win the war of "ugly points." I've noted multiple times this season how Auburn can get beat on the backboard periodically, and that can certainly happen again here. Since the calendar flipped to the New Year, Michigan State has been an elite offensive rebounding team, while Auburn has hung in the mid-200s in the defensive rebounding department.
Also of concern is just how much the Tigers have been fouling. Since January 1, opponents have been getting to the line 41% of the time. That won't work against one of the nation's highest free-throw rate teams.
Michigan State vs Auburn same-game parlay (SGP)
Michigan State Spartans +5.5
Jeremy Fears over 7.5 points
Johni Broome 20+ points
It only makes sense to take a player who draws a ton of fouls to go over their points total when facing a team that fouls a ton. Amongst backcourt options, that player is Jeremy Fears for Michigan State.
The sophomore has drawn, on average, 3.8 fouls per game with a free throw rate of 79% — that's the highest among Spartan defenders. He should benefit from drawing secondary attention, as Jase Richardson will receive most of Auburn's attention.
I paired him with Johni Broome to reach 20 points — again. He's done it 19 times already this season and as prefaced, should benefit from the style of player he'll see in this one.
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Michigan State vs Auburn odds
Michigan State vs Auburn live odds
Michigan State vs Auburn opening odds
- Spread: Michigan State +5.5 (-110) | Auburn -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan State +195 | Auburn -240
- Over/Under: Over 149 (-110) | Under 149 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan State vs Auburn betting trend to know
Auburn has hit the moneyline in 31 of their last 36 games (+18.65 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Auburn.
How to watch Michigan State vs Auburn
| Region | South |
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Sunday, 3-30-2025 |
| Tip-off | 5:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Michigan State vs Auburn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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