The No. 9 Marquette Golden Eagles (19-12) enter March Madness after having some troubles of late, losing six of their last 10, including a first-round exit in the Big East tournament. They will meet the North Carolina Tar Heels (24-9), who finished the regular season by handing Coach K a loss in his final home game to conclude a six-game win streak. Can Marquette turn the ship around in time for the Round of 64 or will North Carolina continue to be the heartbreakers of March?
Continue reading for free March Madness picks and predictions for the matchup between North Carolina and Marquette on Thursday, March 17th.
Marquette vs North Carolina odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
North Carolina opened as an 8-point favorite and has stayed at that number. The total opened at 150 and has since climbed to 152 by the time of this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Marquette vs North Carolina predictions
Predictions made on 3/14/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Marquette vs North Carolina game info
• Location: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Marquette at North Carolina betting preview
Injuries
Marquette: None.
North Carolina: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
North Carolina has played in nine games with a total of 152 or higher and has played 6-3 to the Over. Find more NCAA betting trends for Marquette vs. North Carolina.
Marquette vs North Carolina picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Marquette has had quite the season. The Golden Eagles didn't receive a single Top-25 vote in the preseason AP poll, and their early results did not bring that prevailing sentiment into question. After a somewhat promising 5-0 start that included a win over Illinois, things fell apart rather quickly with losses to St. Bonaventure, Wisconsin, and UCLA to close out their non-conference schedule. They then opened their Big East schedule by dropping three straight games and at 8-6, Shaka Smart's first season as Marquette's head coach was beginning to look like a lost one.
Then Marquette did what was largely unthinkable at the time: they rattled off seven straight wins against the likes of Providence, Seton Hall (twice), Villanova, and Xavier. But as soon as the buzz started brewing, the Golden Eagles gave it back in February and March. Marquette would go on to lose six of their last 10, including a very flat performance in the first round of the Big East tournament in which they allowed Creighton to complete a three-game sweep for the season.
Much of Marquette's success can be attributed to second-year breakout forward Justin Lewis. Lewis is averaging 17.1 points and 7.9 rebounds (both team highs) a year after averaging just 7.8 ppg and 5.4 rpg as a freshman. Maryland transfer and fifth-year senior Darryl Morsell (13.5 ppg) has been playing well as of late, leading the team in scoring in three of the last five games and averaging 17.8 points on 52.2% shooting during that time. True freshman Kameron Jones (7.5 ppg) and senior Greg Elliott serve as the primary perimeter threats, with both shooting better than 39% from deep this season.
That offense will need to keep the pace against the Tar Heels, seeing as North Carolina has four scorers averaging 13+ points per game. The 6-foot-10, 240-pound Armando Bacot not only leads the team in scoring and rebounding, but he is averaging a double-double with 16.5 ppg and 12.5 rpg. Bacot ranks third in the nation in rebounding and did a lot of heavy lifting in the latter half of the season. He averaged 16.4 rebounds per game during a nine-game stretch in January and had a four-game streak in February of 15+ boards. He has three 20+ rebound games to his name this year, and only Oscar Thsiebwe has more.
Bacot is surrounded by a trio of sharpshooters. Sophomore guards Caleb Love (15.4 ppg, 37.0% 3P%) and RJ Davis (13.3 ppg, 38.5% 3P%) have emerged to play key roles in North Carolina's perimeter success. Oklahoma transfer and fifth-year senior Brady Manek (14.4 ppg, 38.6 3P%) is an unsuspecting perimeter threat by just looking at him, and he also helps on the boards (5.7 rpg).
North Carolina's biggest detractor is that outside of its regular-season finale win over Duke and their wins against Virginia Tech, the school has lost in essentially every other appreciable test and has demonstrated a very clear ceiling. That included losses to Kentucky (3rd in KenPom), Tennessee (7th), Duke (12th), Purdue (14th), Wake Forest (37th), Notre Dame (53rd), and Miami (62nd). Marquette ranks 47th and could pose a threat in that regard.
Marquette finished best in the Big East at defending the three, allowing just 31.1% in conference games. North Carolina shot 36.2% from deep on the season, a mark that ranks 54th in the nation. Marquette was also a force on the inside, averaging 5.1 blocks per game (17th) and allowing just a 53.0% field goal percentage at the rim (29th). These two pieces could determine the matchup given that North Carolina's offense heavily leans on Bacot doing his damage inside while its trio of shooters keep the floor spaced from outside.
Prediction: Marquette +3 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
Thursday's total of 152 is certainly on the higher side for the Golden Eagles, having seen totals at or above that number just three times and playing 2-1 to the Under in those games. North Carolina sees these totals much more often and regularly plays to the Over, sporting a 6-3 record to the Over in nine such occasions.
On top of that, in its 10 regular-season games against tournament teams, North Carolina has allowed an average of 79.6 points per game while playing 7-3 to the Over. And outside of one really good defensive performance against Michigan (51 points allowed) and two average performances against Virginia Tech (68 points allowed both times), North Carolina has allowed 78 points or more and an average of 87 points across the other seven games.
And letting in points and going Over the total has largely been the theme for the Tar Heels ever since conference play began. Since their first ACC game, they have played 14-7 to the Over, which includes their current 9-4 record over the last 13.
Prediction: Over 152.5 (-110)
Best bet
First-year head coach Hubert Davis has done a commendable job pioneering the Tar Heels' first season without legendary coach Roy Williams. North Carolina put up its best overall and conference winning percentage in three seasons and has plenty of youth across its rotation that it can build from moving forward.
That season is in very real danger of ending on Thursday at the hands of a Marquette team that, despite recent struggles, has been largely overlooked and borderline disrespected at times. Much was made of Shaka Smart being unable to generate any tournament success while at Texas, making the tournament three times in his six seasons there and getting bounced in the first round each and every time.
But many are quick to forget that prior to that stint Smart led VCU to a Final Four, an Elite Eight, and two Sweet Sixteens. With expectations and attention at a much more manageable level now that he has returned to a smaller program, it isn't outside the realm of possibility that Smart would be able to repeat some of that success.
Forgo the points and expect the Golden Eagles to keep their dancing shoes on.
Pick: Marquette moneyline (+140)
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