Michigan vs Colorado State South Region Picks: Roddy's Body Bullies Wolverines

On Thursday, the Colorado State Rams face the Michigan Wolverines in a first-round matchup in the South Region of March Madness. Despite Colorado State being the better seed in this game, the March Madness odds have Michigan laying points. 

Will the Rams show the oddsmakers up by beating up on a Wolverines team that was just 17-14 this season? Keep reading our Michigan vs. Colorado State March Madness picks and predictions for March 17 to find out. 

Michigan vs Colorado State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

After sneaking into the tournament, Michigan opened as a 2.5-point favorite against Colorado State. Meanwhile, the total opened at 140 and is now down to 139 or 139.5 on most sportsbooks. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Michigan vs Colorado State predictions

• Prediction: Colorado State +2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 140 (-110)
• Best bet: Colorado State +2.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/14/2022 at 11:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Michigan vs Colorado State game info

• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:15 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Michigan vs Colorado State betting preview

Injuries

Michigan: No injuries to report.
Colorado State: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Michigan is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. Colorado State.

Michigan vs Colorado State picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

You can say what you want about Colorado State coming from a weak conference, but the Mountain West was actually really good this season. Four teams from the conference made it to the NCAA Tournament, and Utah State went on to make it to the NIT. With that being said, this isn’t your average mid-major team, and the Rams are going to love their chances against a Wolverines squad that really shouldn’t even be a part of March Madness to begin with. 

Of course, there’s some talent in place on this Michigan roster, with Hunter Dickinson being one of the best offensive centers in college basketball. The Wolverines also have some other intriguing pieces in Eli Brooks, DeVante’ Jones, Moussa Diabate and Caleb Houstan — the last two will likely play in the NBA one day. Dickinson is going to get his numbers against a Colorado State team that doesn’t really play many true big men. However, the big lefty is going to have trouble on the defensive end, and that’s part of the reason why this Wolverines squad is just 91st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com). 

Colorado State happens to be one of the best offensive teams in the nation, as the Rams are 20th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this year. Led by David Roddy, a bowling ball of a wing that is arguably the most unstoppable player in the NCAA, this team spreads you out and scores in a number of different ways. Colorado State is going to play through Roddy almost exclusively, and he should get to the rim at will. Roddy is also a good 3-point shooter, and he’s a sneaky talented passer. Overall, he should be able to stand out in this game, even against one of the bigger programs in all of college sports. 

If Michigan opts to send help at Roddy, Isaiah Stevens, John Tonje and Kendle Moore are all capable of making the Wolverines pay. Stevens is a 37.3% 3-point shooter and is second on the team in scoring at 14.9 points per game. He should be able to have a big game playing off the space that Roddy creates for him. The other two have also stepped up at times this year. 

Overall, Colorado State has the bulletin-board material of being the underdog despite having had a better season than Michigan. That should fuel a team that is arguably more talented than its opponent anyway. 

Prediction: Colorado State +2.5 (-110)

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Over/Under analysis

Michigan and Colorado State are both offensive-minded teams, so you might be inclined to bet the Over in this one. This game does, however, look like one that can be a little lower in the scoring department than you think. While both of these teams are Top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season, neither one of them is inside the Top 200 in adjusted tempo. That’s equally as important when looking at a total, as shooting good percentages from the floor won’t mean all that much if neither one of these teams is getting a lot of shots up. 

On top of this game likely being played at a slow pace, the Under is also 10-4-1 in the last 15 games that Michigan has played in the NCAA Tournament. And if that’s not enough for you to go roll with the Under, it’s also 6-1 in the last seven games that Colorado State has played — and 4-0 in the last four games that the team has played on a neutral court. 

Prediction: Under 140 (-110)

Best bet

Michigan was 0-8 against the spread and 1-7 straight up in games with a line between +3 and -3 this season, and the Wolverines lost those games by an average of 10.4 points per game. Losing games that are expected to be close at that high of a clip is just unacceptable, and it doesn’t bode well heading into a meeting with a very good Colorado State team. The Rams are 12-8 SU and 11-8-1 ATS in games with a line of +3 to -3 over the last three seasons, so they’re a lot better off in a situation like this. 

This is just a poor matchup of an elite Colorado State offense against a mediocre Michigan defense. The Rams aren’t great defensively either, but they should be able to win this one with their offense. Don’t be surprised if the Rams end up having some success with a small-ball look. While Roddy gives up a lot of height in a potential matchup with Dickinson, he does have the strength to push him around and make him take difficult jump hooks around the basket. But on the other end, Roddy has the all-around game to potentially play him off the floor. 

Michigan also happens to be just 1-3 ATS in tournament games this year. The most recent was a loss to the Indiana Hoosiers in the Big Ten Tournament, where the Wolverines lost their composure and blew a 17-point lead. 

Pick: Colorado State +2.5 (-110)

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