The No. 7 Murray State Racers successfully put a perfect OVC season (18-0) in the rear-view mirror following their conference tournament championship win last Saturday and will shift gears as they look ahead to their March Madness Round of 64 matchup against the No. 10 San Francisco Dons.
The Dons are one of the WCC's emerging programs that have helped spotlight the strength of the conference over the years, and the resume they built in the 2022 season was undeniable.
Continue reading for free March Madness picks and predictions for Murray State vs. San Francisco on Thursday, March 17.
San Francisco vs Murray State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Murray State opened as 1-point favorites and have since moved to a pick 'em. The total opened at 138 and has since moved to 137.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
San Francisco vs Murray State predictions
Predictions made on 3/16/2022 at 10:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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San Francisco vs Murray State game info
• Location: Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, TX
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
San Francisco vs Murray State betting preview
Injuries
San Francisco: Yauhen Massalski G (Questionable).
Murray State: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Since 2006, No. 10 seeds are 13-8 straight up when they are ranked higher than their No. 7 seed opponent according to KenPom adjusted efficiency. When they are ranked higher according to Torvik, they are 36-15. Find more NCAA betting trends for San Francisco vs. Murray State.
San Francisco vs Murray State picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
While Ja Morant continues to light the NBA on fire in an MVP-caliber campaign, his alma mater will go dancing and try to build on quite the impressive campaign of its own. After sweeping the OVC in the regular season and conference tournament the Racers finished 20th in the AP poll, marking just the second time this century and third time ever an OVC team entered the Big Dance as a ranked team.
The Racers are led by a trio of scorers that all bring different and essential skill sets. 6'10" 245-pound forward KJ Williams triples down as the team's per-game leader in points (18.2 per game), rebounds (8.6), and steals (1.5). Williams' specialty on the offensive end is his mid-range jumper, making them at a hilariously impressive mark of 53.5%. Williams is complemented by Tevin Brown (16.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and Justice Hill (13.2 PPG, 5.0 APG).
Brown largely parks himself on the perimeter, averaging a whopping 8.0 3-point attempts per game, and for good reason, seeing as he is good 38.9% of the time there. Hill serves as the initiator and leads the team in assists while being proficient at the two deeper levels of the court, shooting 41.7% on two-point jumpers and 35.6% on 3-pointers.
Murray State's offense ranks 17th in the nation in scoring (79.7 PPG), which is that high thanks to its strength on the offensive glass — 12.5 offensive rebounds per game ranks 19th in the country. San Francisco should be able to provide a good enough challenge on both fronts, seeing as it is the 19th-ranked defense according to KenPom and ranks a respectable 47th in defensive rebounding.
The Dons are led by Jamaree Bouyea, who is generating late-round draft buzz. Bouyea coincidentally also leads his team in three categories, much like Murray State's KJ Williams: points (16.7 per game), assists (4.0), and steals (1.8). Khalil Shabazz (14.0 PPG) is much like the Racer's Tevin Brown, leading the team in 3-point attempts (6.8 per game), but is slightly less efficient with those looks (35.0%). Shabazz has a lot of help on the perimeter, however.
Bouyea is a 37.0% shooter and San Francisco also has Gabe Stefanini (9.6 PPG, 35.8% 3P%) and Julian Rishwain (7.4 PPG, 44.3% 3P%). The Dons manage proficient perimeter spacing largely thanks to 6'10" 245-pound Yauhen Massalski (13.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG), who is the nucleus of the Dons' interior presence. Massalski is carrying a questionable designation officially, but San Francisco actually opted to rest him during their semi-final game against Gonzaga, knowing that they had locked up a spot in the tournament.
Prediction: San Francisco PK (-105)
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Over/Under analysis
Only three of the eight Round of 64 matchups possess totals records that have favored the Over in the last 15 years. The 7 vs. 10 matchup is one of them, going 34-25 (57.6%) to the Over. And before last year (1-2 to the Over), the matchup went 3-1 to the Over in the previous three tournaments.
One look at Murray State's record on totals may have bettors looking the other way (20-12 to the Under), but their totals record is largely a reflection of their ability to blow out teams - a whopping 14 of their 32 games were won by 20+ points. A part of that is their ability to hold teams defensively, having allowed just two teams to score 70+ points this calendar year.
The story is a bit different, however, when looking at their games against teams in the tournament field. In those three games against Memphis, Chattanooga, and Auburn, the Racers allowed 70+ points each time. San Francisco ranks 45th in KenPom offensive efficiency, close to both Memphis (48th) and Chattanooga (58th).
Prediction: Over 137 (-110)
Best bet
7 vs. 10 matchups are always tricky, as they typically feature either the strongest mid-majors (like Murray State and San Francisco this year) or second-tier or slightly underperforming Power 6 programs (Michigan State, Ohio State, etc. elsewhere). But there is a simple way to be on the right side of the matchup probability-wise when it comes to how these matchups have played out in the past.
The team that has ranked more favorably according to KenPom is 13-8 (61.8%) in the last 21 instances. When looking at Torvik rankings, the higher-ranked team is 36-15 (70.6%) in the last 51 games. In that respect, San Francisco ranks 21st overall to Murray State's 27th in KenPom, and ranks 21st in T-Rank to the Racers’ 38th.
What Murray State has accomplished this season has undeniably not gotten the attention it deserves. They wiped out the entirety of the Ohio Valley conference and did it rather convincingly. But unfortunately for the Racer's, the tank may be empty on Thursday.
Expect San Francisco to make it to Saturday.
Pick: San Francisco PK (-105)
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