The first round of the NCAA March Madness Tournament tips off on Thursday and one of the first games is a Midwest Region showdown between the No. 4-seed Providence Friars and No. 13 South Dakota State Jackrabbits.
Despite the massive gap in seeding, oddsmakers are expecting a close contest with college basketball betting lines opening with the Friars as slim 2-point faves.
Here are our best free March Madness picks and predictions for Providence Friars vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits on Thursday, March 17, with tipoff at 12:40 p.m. ET.
South Dakota State vs Providence odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board with the Friars installed as 2-point favorites with the Over/Under at 149.5. As of Tuesday afternoon, both lines have stayed steady although some online books are offering South Dakota State at +2.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
South Dakota State vs Providence predictions
- Prediction: South Dakota State +2 (-110)
- Prediction: Over 149.5 (-110)
- Best bet: South Dakota State ML (+110)
Predictions made on 3/15/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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South Dakota State vs Providence game info
• Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:15 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
South Dakota State vs Providence betting preview
Injuries
South Dakota State: None.
Providence: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Friars are 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Find more NCAA betting trends for South Dakota State vs. Providence.
South Dakota State vs Providence picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Friars are coming off an ugly 27-point loss to Creighton in the semifinals of the Big East tournament. Providence is now 5-3 straight up and 3-5 against the spread in its last eight games and victories haven't come easy, with three wins in overtime during that span and another coming on a last-minute 3-pointer against Butler.
The Friars play at a slower pace but are efficient on offense where they rank 87th in the country with 103.7 points per 100 possessions. However, the Jackrabbits are on a whole other level offensively and while their level of competition in the Summit League isn't the greatest, leading the country with 117.1 points per 100 possessions shouldn't be overlooked.
South Dakota State has won a ridiculous 21 games in a row (12-8-1 ATS over that span) and is coming off a Summit League title after beating North Dakota State 75-69 last Tuesday.
The Jackrabbits also pace the nation with an incredible 44.2% 3-point shooting percentage — more than 40 points higher than second-place Colgate. That said, they aren't the type of team that lives and dies with the long-ball since they also excel in midrange and post-up situations.
The Friars do have the edge on defense but it's concerning that they are coming off a contest against a mediocre offensive team in Creighton where they surrendered 85 points on 53% shooting. We're backing the sharp-shooting Jackrabbits on the spread.
Prediction: South Dakota State +2 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
Providence hasn't been scoring much lately but the Friars should find it easier to get buckets against a South Dakota State side that ranks 254th in the country with 72.5 points per game allowed. The Jackrabbits don't run the floor much in transition but they tend to set up quickly in the halfcourt and are 59th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. They also rank second in the nation in scoring with 85.5 ppg.
While open shots won't be quite as easy to find against the Friars as they were against Summit League competition, Providence does rank near the bottom of the country at defending against catch-and-shoot threes according to ShotQualityBets.com.
It's also worth mentioning that the Jackrabbits played three contests earlier this season against Power Six programs and all were high-scoring. They combined for 202 points with Alabama in November, totaled 163 points versus Washington two weeks later, then edged Washington State 77-74 in December.
With the Over 6-2 in the Jackrabbits last eight games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, we're backing the Over here.
Prediction: Over 149.5 (-110)
Best bet
With South Dakota State's sizzling play on the perimeter and the ability to shoot the ball from anywhere on the floor, the Jackrabbits usually have at least a chance at victory, especially against a less athletic team like Providence that hasn't been playing well on the defensive end of the floor lately.
We're taking the Jackrabbits on the moneyline.
Pick: South Dakota State ML (+110)
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