The No. 6 Texas Longhorns advanced to the Round of 32 after bouncing Virginia Tech, arguably the hottest team entering the tournament.
They will now face off against the No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers, who convincingly took care of Yale on Friday. The matchup will pit a renowned Longhorns defense that has fared particularly well against teams outside the Big 12, against the country's second-ranked offense.
Which of the two varying approaches will reign supreme on Sunday night?
Continue reading for free March Madness picks and predictions for Texas vs. Purdue on Sunday, March 20th.
Texas vs Purdue odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Purdue opened as 3-point favorites and the number hasn't budged. The total opened at 133 and has since moved to 134.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Texas vs Purdue predictions
Predictions made on 3/19/2022 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Texas vs Purdue game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Sunday, March 20, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:40 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Texas vs Purdue betting preview
Injuries
Texas: None.
Purdue: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Texas is 11-3 to the Under against non-conference opponents this year. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Purdue.
Texas vs Purdue picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Texas' win on Friday marked its 22nd on the season, but just the third in which it allowed 70 or more points in regulation. Seemingly the entire country was behind the red hot Hokies, but the Longhorns' defense ultimately held the line strong enough for a win.
They may have surrendered 73 points, but they did so while sending Virginia Tech to the line a whopping 26 times. It stands to reason that there is plenty of room going forward for the Longhorns to reel in the fouls. That will certainly have to be the case against Purdue, who rank second overall in KenPom offensive efficiency.
The Boilermakers put up 78 against Yale and hit that mark despite a below-average game shooting-wise. While they did win the game by 21, there is room for concern with their performance given that Yale is outside the top 100 in KenPom defensive efficiency.
If Purdue wants to win on Sunday, it will need someone else other than Jaden Ivey (17.6 PPG) and Zach Edey (14.6 PPG) to carry the burden. The two combined for 38 points on 10-20 shooting and 3-6 from three, and the rest of the team went 12-31 (38.7%) from the field and 4-16 from three (25.0%).
That will be especially true against Chris Beard's defensive stalwarts, who held non-conference opponents to 51.4 points per game in the regular season. That number is markedly below the 67.2 points they surrendered on average to Big 12 opponents. In essence, teams outside the Big 12 are unfamiliar with Beard's "No Middle" defense, which he has utilized now in his time at Texas and Texas Tech.
While the Longhorns are far from an offensive powerhouse, it might not matter against a Boilermakers defense that regularly lets in buckets at an alarming rate. If Friday night was any indication, Texas may be putting it together on that end after scoring 81 against a Virginia Tech defense that ranks 56th in KenPom defense (Purdue ranks 92nd) and allowed just one team to score 70+ in their final twelve games of the season.
Prediction: Texas +3 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
Despite how good Purdue's offense typically has been, it has been on a small slump as of late. The Boilermakers have failed to score over 70 points in eight of their last 11 games since early February.
Those results have netted a 9-2 against record to the Under during that time. Of the two totals they have seen at or below Sunday's mark, they have also played to the Under both times. As mentioned previously, Texas' defensive performances vary massively when playing in and out of conference opponents.
After Friday's game, it has now played 11-3 to the Under against non-conference opponents and 11-8 to the Over against the Big 12.
Prediction: Under 134 (-110)
Best bet
As expected, many looked past Texas' entire body of work and the nuances within it, and entirely wrote them off in their matchup against Virginia Tech.
Whereas Purdue frequently wows with high octane offensive performances, Texas wins its games by grinding games to a halt. It'd be unsurprising if we saw the public rush to back Purdue because of that.
Chris Beard is quite frankly the better coach in a situation he is more familiar with. Purdue certainly has high-end draft talent on their team and they are more than capable of taking over any given game.
But if the Boilermakers try to win on Sunday with a team-wide performance akin to their performance against Yale, it'd be far-fetched to believe they will be around next weekend.
Pick: Texas +3 (-110)
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