The No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers (27-7) fell short in the Big Ten Championship game but played well enough over the course of the season to net a No. 3 seed for March Madness. The Boilermakers will face off against the No. 14 Yale Bulldogs (19-11) in the Round of 64, who locked in an appearance after dropping Princeton in the Ivy League championship game.
Purdue is one of the best offenses in the nation, but much has been rightfully made about its poor defense. Can the Boilermakers put up enough scoring to cover the large spread, or will Yale get a few too many good looks and keep the game within a respectable reach?
Here are our best free Purdue vs Yale March Madness picks and predictions for Friday, March 18th, with tip-off at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Yale vs Purdue odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Purdue opened as 15 point favorites and is now as high as -16.5. The total opened at 144 and has since crept down to 142.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Yale vs Purdue predictions
Predictions made on 3/16/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Yale vs Purdue game info
• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
Yale vs Purdue betting preview
Injuries
Yale: None.
Purdue: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
No. 3 seeds that are 100 spots ahead of the No. 14 seed have gone 21-7 against the spread. Yale has gone 0-3 against the spread as double-digit underdogs this season, failing to cover by an average of 15 points. Find more NCAA betting trends for Yale vs. Purdue.
Yale vs Purdue picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Most Big Ten fans are very aware that the book has essentially been written about Purdue: it is one of the best offenses in the nation but its defense couldn't stop a nosebleed. The Boilermakers are the third-best offense according to KenPom, and their 49.3% field goal percentage ranks sixth in the nation.
In that sense, it's quite fitting that all of Purdue's seven losses came within the 10 instances where it failed to eclipse 70 points. The Boilermakers are led by star sophomores Jaden Ivey (17.4 PPG), and Zach Edey (14.6 PPG). Ivey is an athletic finisher at the rim that can get to the line frequently (5.7 attempts per game), while also posing as a moderate threat outside as well (35.6%). Edey is a 7-foot-4 285-pound behemoth that not only finishes well at the rim (78%) but also has a silky stroke that helps expand his range within the perimeter.
Ivey, Edey, and the rest of the Boilermakers manage a fifth-best field goal percentage at the rim and their efficiency there undoubtedly draws frustration and fouls out of opposing teams, ranking 38th in the nation in free throw attempts per game. Despite the fact that Edey could easily use his size to do it all himself down low, that is far from the case: Purdue ranks 37th in assist percentage on makes at the rim. This is all without mentioning that Purdue is also extremely lethal from deep, hitting 39.1% of its threes for a mark that ranks fourth-best in the nation.
The Boilermakers have seven different players that shoot 37% or better from three, although admittedly only four have appreciable volume (two attempts or more per game). Nevertheless, Sasha Stefanovic (10.7 PPG, 39.0% 3P%), Mason Gillis (43.9%), Eric Hunter (47.1%), and Isaiah Thompson (41.7%) are a massive headache for opposing defenses and are a large reason why Jaden Ivey and Zach Edey have as much space as they do.
While Yale deserves applause for winning the Ivy League tournament, the Bulldogs are simply far too overmatched to contain or keep up with Purdue. To Yale's credit, it did hold opposing 3-point shooters to 30.5% (the 36th lowest mark in the nation), but there's a big difference between defending Ivy League shooters and defending Purdue's. It also doesn't have an answer for Edey, as Yale doesn't have a single player in its primary rotation that is taller than 6-foot-8 or weighs more than 220 pounds. In short, the Bulldogs might get crushed on the boards.
Purdue also ranks outside the Top 100 in essentially every offensive metric. If Yale isn't much of a match on either side of the court and likely won't control the glass, Purdue will likely sustain a lot of scoring runs. As Evan Miyakawa notes below, Yale is already one of the worst teams at preventing large scoring runs (10-0 or more):
Breaking down tourney teams that go on scoring runs:
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 15, 2022
This graph shows how many double digit scoring runs ("kill shots") teams produce and concede in games. The following thread will analyze what this means for each team's tourney hopes???? pic.twitter.com/wdmrpPyeHi
Prediction: Purdue -16.5 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
The total of 142.5 for this matchup definitely leans towards the higher side for the opening round, with just six of the other 31 games boasting higher totals. It should be noted that Purdue has seen a dip in scoring as of late, failing to score over 70 points eight times in the ten games since February 10th. As a reference, the Boilermakers failed to go over the 70 point mark just three times in their other 24 games.
The slump as of late across those ten games has resulted in an 8-2 record to the Under during that time. Yale has similarly seen a scoring dip as of late, scoring 70+ just once in its last five games when they had managed to do it in six of the previous eight games. It has also played favorably towards the Under as of late, having gone that direction five straight times now.
Prediction: Purdue -16.5 (-110)
Best bet
All things considered, Yale is grossly overmatched for Friday's matchup. Purdue is 14th overall in KenPom adjusted efficiency and Yale ranks much further out at 147th. Three seeds that were 100+ spots better in KenPom compared to their 14th seeded opponents have fared well against the spread, going 21-7 since 2006.
The Bulldogs also don't tend to show their teeth as large underdogs, having gone 0-3 against the spread this year as double-digit underdogs, losing those games by an average margin of 28.3 points. The Boilermakers should be able to sustain enough runs to put this game extremely out of reach.
Pick: Under 142.5 (-110)
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