The No. 7 seeded Saint Mary's Gaels take on the No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide in the second round of the NCAA Tournament tonight.
Defense has been an afterthought for the fast-paced Tide, which is why my St. Mary's vs. Alabama predictions are betting on Luke Barrett to have a productive game.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this East Region clash on March 23, with tipoff at 6:10 p.m. ET from Cleveland's Rocket Arena on TNT.
Who will win Saint Mary's vs Alabama?
Both of these teams were given an upset scare in the first round. The Gaels fought back from a 12-point second half deficit against Vanderbilt while Alabama was down a point with seven minutes remaining before pulling away down the stretch.
While the Tide have looked vulnerable, Saint Mary's doesn't have the athleticism or shot-making ability to knock them off. The chasm between these teams on offense is bigger than the gap on defense, since Bama has the ability to defend well when it focuses on that side of the floor.
Alabama will go on runs and the Gaels won't have the scoring punch to shoot themselves back into the game — especially if the Tide flex their defensive muscles in crunch time.
Saint Mary's vs Alabama prediction
My best bet: Luke Barrett Over 9.5 points (+115 at bet365)
This is an intriguing matchup between two schools with opposite styles. The Alabama Crimson Tide are first in the country in adjusted tempo and scoring (91.1 ppg), while the Saint Mary's Gaels are 360th in adjusted tempo and fourth in scoring defense (61.4 ppg allowed).
Alabama will play significantly slower than usual, resulting in suppressed numbers for its players. Meanwhile, the Gaels will have more possessions, leading to higher numbers for them.
That extreme swing in tempo can lead to inefficiencies in the player props markets. While the majority of Alabama players are seeing slightly lower O/U numbers than usual, many of the Gaels have prop numbers that are in line with an average game.
That includes Saint Mary's wing Luke Barrett, who averages 9.9 points per game on 46% shooting. Barrett barely comes off the floor for the Gaels and has played 232 of 240 minutes over the last six games. He has taken at least 10 field goal attempts and scored 12+ points in four of those contests
The Tide have previously faced pair of elite defenses that play at an extremely slow-pace in Tennessee and Houston. They lost 79-76 to the Vols while beating the Cougars 85-80 in overtime and were able to make both teams play a tad faster than usual.
An uptick in tempo for the Gaels should mean more scoring opportunities for Barrett against a Bama squad that ranks 350th in the country in scoring defense (81.4 ppg).
Saint Mary's vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Luke Barrett Over 9.5 points
Mark Sears Over 3.5 rebounds
Alabama ML
Mark Sears averages 3.1 rebounds per game and has gone below this number in nine of his last 12 contests. With the Gaels playing at a sluggish tempo and boasting physical guards, expect Sears to get outmuscled for loose balls.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your March Madness ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 15+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Saint Mary's vs Alabama odds
Saint Mary's vs Alabama live odds
Saint Mary's vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: Saint Mary's +5.5 | Alabama -5.5
- Moneyline: Saint Mary's +190 | Alabama -230
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Saint Mary's vs Alabama betting trend to know
The Crimson Tide have covered the first-half spread in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Saint Mary's vs. Alabama.
How to watch Saint Mary's vs Alabama
| Region | East |
| Location | Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Saint Mary's vs Alabama key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
