After the opening weekend of March Madness, we're down to the Sweet 16 in college basketball. It's been a relatively chalky NCAA Tournament so far, with nobody lower than a No. 6 seed left standing.
My March Madness picks expect that to continue since I have just one underdog making it through to the Elite Eight. These predictions are based on a combination of my ratings, odds, and the data analysts at KenPom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics.
Here are my score predictions for every game in the Sweet 16.
March Madness Sweet 16 score predictions
Thursday
(6) BYU vs (2) Alabama
Score prediction: BYU 94-92
Grab your popcorn for a shootout between two teams that love to push the pace and chuck up shots from deep. Don't be surprised if BYU's highly efficient offense can outgun an Alabama squad that's been giving up way too many wide-open looks to perimeter shooters.
(4) Maryland vs (1) Florida
Score prediction: Florida 82-76
The Terps have a terrific starting five, but they have issues with depth, while the Gators have a strong bench. When studs like Derik Queen and Ja'Kobi Gillespire take a breather, Florida will go on runs and put this game out of reach.
(4) Arizona vs (1) Duke
Score prediction: Duke 86-77
The Blue Devils beat Arizona 69-55 in Tucson back in November, and their young lineup has only gotten better since. Both offenses have made significant strides over the last four months, so expect more points this time around, but Duke will still cruise to victory.
(10) Arkansas vs (3) Texas Tech
Score prediction: Texas Tech 77-72
Razorbacks have won outright in their last four games as underdogs but were fortunate that St. John's went just 2-for-22 from deep against them in their last game. The return of Adou Thiero (even if it's just for 12-15 minutes) is big, but it won't be enough to overcome a well-balanced Red Raiders squad that can score inside and out.
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Friday
(6) Mississippi vs (2) Michigan State
Score prediction: Michigan State 73-66
The Rebels have already beaten four teams that made the Sweet 16, but don't expect them to make it five. MSU will dominate Ole Miss on the boards, and the Spartans' elite defense will force the Rebels into tough mid-range shots.
(3) Kentucky vs (2) Tennessee
Score prediction: Tennessee 75-71
The Wildcats have had the Volunteers' number, beating them as underdogs twice this season. The Vols will get revenge when it matters most and take advantage of a UK attack that hasn't looked quite as explosive since losing Jaxson Robinson.
(5) Michigan vs (1) Auburn
Score prediction: Auburn 78-72
The Wolverines are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games, and with Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, they match up well against Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell. However, the Tigers' backcourt will be the difference and lead them to a victory, even if they don't cover the 8.5-point spread.
(4) Purdue vs (1) Houston
Score prediction: Houston 72-65
The Cougars' suffocating defense will get them a win, but the Boilermakers won't be pushovers. They'll playing an hour from home and are facing a Houston side that doesn't shoot well enough inside the arc to take advantage of Purdue's piss-poor interior defense.
