The Texas A&M Aggies and Nebraska Cornhuskers will clash in the March Madness bracket in contrasting styles.
A&M caught fire late in the season and needed to win in the SEC Tournament to get here. It did just that as it knocked off Kentucky in the first round following a win over Mississippi before that. The Aggies eventually lost in the semifinals to Florida, but not for it gave the Gators everything it wanted.
Nebraska has been a joy, with the electric Keisei Tominaga leading the way. The senior guard scored 18+ points in four straight games to end the season, with three of those four ending as wins.
The Cornhuskers arrive here off a loss in the Big Ten Tournament to Illinois, but it's hard to say it isn't playing its best basketball of the season.
What are the best March Madness picks for this game? Find out when we look at the March Madness odds and give it in our college basketball picks for tonight.
Texas A&M vs Nebraska best odds
Texas A&M vs Nebraska picks and predictions
It's hard to properly acknowledge how well Texas A&M Aggies head coach Buzz Williams has done with this team. The physicality and the defense are his calling cards, so that's not much of a surprise, but to make it to the tournament with such an offensively challenged team is so impressive.
According to BarTorvik, A&M enters this game as the worst shooting tournament team from an eFG percentage perspective in at least a decade at 45%. According to KenPom, it's the worst 2-point shooting team in the tournament this season. This is also the worst 3-point shooting team, with that second one coming by a relatively large margin.
The two most similar teams to Texas A&M's resume, per Torvik, lost in the first round, and in totality, the group of most similar teams averaged one tournament win. You can go down a similar path when you look at the most similar teams via KenPom's shooting metrics.
I say all that to say this: Texas A&M could wear this Nebraska team down with its physicality late in the game. There's a degree of defensive athleticism there that the Nebraska Cornhuskers haven't seen much this season. If the Aggies win, it'll be because of their defense so I'm fading their offense tonight in what is a tough matchup.
The Aggies will be fine with making this a slow-paced, methodical game. It sped up its tempo in the SEC Tournament, but it looked its best in the regular season when it played games with 65 or fewer possessions. That's when the wins against Florida and Tennessee came. It's also different from the pace Nebraska would prefer to play.
The Cornhuskers will likely under-screen a ton in this game. It's what they've done most of the season against even opponents that can shoot well. They're now up against a poor shooting team that seldom gets hot from deep, leaving a highly muddied paint.
A&M made a run in the SEC tourney because of Wade Taylor. He scored 30 in both games in Nashville, but this would primarily be based upon Williams saying, "Here's a high ball screen; go get downhill or create your own shot". Taylor will do some of that today, but it will be much more difficult against a team that will pack the paint like Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers should be able to replicate some of the things Auburn did to the Aggies this season, and that's when Taylor was held to just eight points.
My best bet: Texas A&M team total Under 73.5 (-120 at bet365)
Texas A&M vs Nebraska same-game parlay
Texas A&M team total Under 73.5
Wade Taylor Under 18.5 points
We're pairing Texas A&M's team total with its best scorer to be held in check, grabbing Wade Taylor Under 18.5 points to complete this SGP.
As I mentioned above, Nebraska can muddy the paint for Taylor's driving lanes. Not only that, the Huskers will be able to provide full attention to him on the perimeter because they can sag off other shooters. Auburn did that with great success and I'm expecting a similar outcome here.
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Texas A&M vs Nebraska spread and Over/Under analysis
This is a challenging game to call and I have no edge.
However, I do wonder how this backcourt matchup will shake out. There's not a huge talent gap on either side, but there's a better path to Nebraska getting more sustainable scoring there.
Naturally, I lean to the Under, especially if A&M can play at its desired pace. I saw more of an edge isolating the Texas A&M total, but it's not like the Aggies are defensive slouches. They'll enter this game just outside the Top 50 in KenPom's defensive efficiency.
These two have seen each other a decent amount — given prior conference affiliations — and the Under is 2-4 in those games. That's a bit different from what we've seen trends on a game-to-game basis from these teams this season, though, as each will come into this game with a relatively high recent Over clip.
Texas A&M vs Nebraska betting trend to know
Nebraska has covered the first-half spread in 15 of itrs last 21 games (+8.00 units / 33% ROI)
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Texas A&M vs Nebraska game info
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Friday, March 22, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Texas A&M vs Nebraska key injuries
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