Marquette vs Butler Odds, Picks and Predictions: Revenge Best Served Kolek

No. 4 Marquette continues its Big East campaign as it heads off to face Butler. The Golden Eagles have been rolling lately, on the second-longest win streak in the conference at seven games.

Their last win came against St. John's in come-from-behind fashion but ended in a relatively comfortable 11-point victory. Marquette has now positioned itself to at least argue for a top seed in the tournament.

On the flip side, Butler needs this win. The Bulldogs are currently clinging to an NCAA Tournament bid, but the situation is expected to be fluid down the stretch.

The Bulldogs come into this one off a one-possession win over Providence, which followed a loss to UConn, perfectly illustrating the see-saw nature of their season. 

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the college basketball odds and give our free college basketball picks for Tuesday, February 13.

Marquette vs Butler best odds

Marquette vs Butler picks and predictions

Motivation rings large here for the Marquette Golden Eagles. The Butler Bulldogs gave the Eagles its first conference home loss in just over two years, and you can bet it's still fresh on the minds of this team. That may not ring more true for any player than Tyler Kolek. 

"It's a mental thing. Right now we have to figure out how to free these guys' minds in the game," Smart said after that loss to Butler. "We got really tentative at times on offense because guys didn't know if they were going to be able to shoot it in."

If you're betting on a player you're least likely to see tentative play from tonight, it would be Kolek. 

The brash-spoken senior guard tends to be at his best in these situations. Last season, there were a host of examples. One of the best is what happened against UConn when he scored six points and took six shots the first time around. He followed that up with back-to-back 17-point games against them later in the season.

Against Butler this year, Kolek had the worst offensive performance of his career when he scored two points on an eye-popping 1-for-13 shooting. I'm betting on him holding onto that loss and performance and responding with a vengeance. 

The matchup for him is better than that performance indicated and it's not even close. Posh Alexander limited him significantly in the first matchup, and while he's a strong defender, plenty of weak defensive links can be exposed. 

All season long, Butler has struggled defensively to defend cutting actions, allowing 1.3 points per possession on such plays. That's the bottom of the conference and near the bottom of college basketball.

Kolek hasn't been involved in many cutting actions this season, but he's certainly capable of it. This is something head coach Shaka Smart has scouted, and getting him involved here seems like a logical thing to do.

I also like what Kolek can do in pick-and-roll sets. I mentioned Alexander's defense in the first matchup, and while what he accomplished was admirable, I'm not sure it's sustainable a second time. Alexander has been an average P&R defender on the year and allowed an eFG % of over 44% as the primary defender here.

Being average against Kolek won't cut it. He's highly effective off of middle-ball screens, and this is an easy avenue for him to make amends for his previous performance.

I'm backing him to get back on track here. Kolek's pick-and-roll matchup advantage says he'll be able to get to the rim more and take some pretty high-percentage shots. No matter which way you slice it; he's primed for a big performance.

My best bet: Tyler Kolek Over 16.5 points (-125 at FanDuel)

Marquette vs Butler same-game parlay

Tyler Kolek Over 16.5 points

Marquette moneyline

+142 at FanDuel

We're keeping things simple here for our same-game parlay. Butler won't have the same poor shooting luck that it got from Marquette in the first matchup.

This is an excellent defensive team, but Marquette is an elite offensive team. I like the Eagles to bounce back in this spot with revenge fresh on their minds. They're a better team from top to bottom and have multiple matchup advantages.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Marquette vs Butler spread and Over/Under analysis

My projections made Marquette a 5.5-point favorite here. While that edge isn't large enough to play the 4.5-point spread, it's something to note when in-game betting. 

I like the Eagles to have a good amount of success in pick-and-roll situations, and if Kolek gets going, he has the microwave tendency to take over the game. As most matchups go with the Eagles, I don't think Butler will have enough firepower to respond like it needs to hang around. 

This total opened at 153, and minimum movement is seen. Some small action has come on the Over, but that's about it. My projections had this number at 152.5. I'm not interested in either side of this line.

Marquette is 5-5 on the total over its last 10 games while Butler is 6-4 to the Over. These two teams have played great in the previous five seasons, and just four of the last 10 have gone Over.

With no clear trend in either direction, it further clouds this situation and reemphasizes no play on a side for me. 

Marquette vs Butler betting trend to know

Marquette has cashed the moneyline in 22 of its last 28 games (+9.70 units / 8% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. Butler.

Marquette vs Butler game info

Marquette vs Butler key injuries

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