It’s a battle for bragging rights in Wisconsin, as the third-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles visit the Wisconsin Badgers.
Marquette has gone toe-to-toe with the best in the nation already in the early part of the year, part of the reason it’s a 2.5-point favorite in the college basketball odds.
The Badgers are no slouch, having shaken off a poor start to rip off four straight wins.
Who rules the Kohl Center Saturday afternoon? Read below for my free college basketball picks and best bet on Saturday, December 2.
Marquette vs Wisconsin best odds
Marquette vs Wisconsin picks and predictions
The Golden Eagles got back stateside after a successful trip at the Maui Invitational, where they bounced top-seeded Kansas, and went down to the wire in a 78-75 loss to the second-ranked Purdue Boilermakers.
They got back to winning right away, crushing the Southern Jaguars 93-56.
They made a ton of hay off turnovers, converting 22 turnovers into 38 points. The Golden Eagles rank 31st in turnovers forced in the country.
Marquette shot a crisp 49.2% from the field, right about its season average, which ranks 42nd in the NCAA. Offensively, it put up 81.4 points per game, which ranks 64th in the nation.
Overall, the Eagles rank 14th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, allowing 65.9 points per game.
For the Badgers, it was another superb outing, sparked by their trademark defense, putting a vice grip on the Western Illinois Leathernecks 71-49.
After a 1-2 start on the year and surrendering 76 points per game, they’ve allowed opponents to score 54.8 points per game in the last four games.
Their defense has climbed to 32nd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency stat, and they’re dominant on the glass, holding teams to 25.3 boards per game (10th) and just 5.6 offensive boards per game, which ranks fifth in the nation.
As well as Wisconsin is playing, with the advantage of having the matchup on their home court, this will be the Badgers’ most accomplished opponent.
Marquette is battle-tested, ranking 26th in KenPom’s strength of schedule. There are only four teams ranked in the Top 10 that sit inside KenPom’s Top 30 in that metric.
The Golden Eagles are a stout 4-2-1 against the spread. I think they’re undervalued in this matchup and slightly disrespected as just a 2.5-point favorite.
My best bet: Marquette -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Marquette vs Wisconsin same-game parlay
Marquette -2.5
Tyler Kolek Under 25.5 points-rebounds-assists
AJ Storr Over 0.5 3-pointers
We’ve got two other wagers to tack on, making a pretty solid same-game parlay.
Let’s start with Marquette’s Tyler Kolek, who has led the team in scoring in the last two games. He led five Eagles in double-digit scoring against Southern, with 16 points on 6-for-8 shooting, adding three boards, three assists, and two steals.
That’s following a 22-point, seven-rebound, and six-dime effort against Purdue in Maui. It’s likely this effort that pushed oddsmakers to set his points-rebounds-assist total to 22.5.
Kolek has only crossed this threshold twice in seven games this year, and Wisconsin’s recent scoring defense and strength on the boards will make it tough for Kolek to hit the Over.
We’re targeting one of the simplest Overs that you can find — a 3-point make by guard AJ Storr. The St John’s transfer has struggled to find the range so far in his first year in Madison, shooting it at a rough 23.7%.
This is a guy who shot 40.4% from distance a year ago, albeit on just under three takes per game.
Storr is coming off a 1-for-4 effort from beyond the arc against Western Illinois. He’s hit threes in back-to-back games just once all year, but I’m banking on his breaking through.
Marquette isn’t exactly a 3-point stopper, as teams are hitting at a 33.5% clip against them, which ranks 226th in college hoops, which should give Storr a great chance to hit a triple.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Marquette vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis
The line has stayed close since opening, with the spread as low as 1.5 points, though almost every book has bumped it up a point, to Wisconsin +2.5.
Marquette is 2-2-0 ATS as a betting favorite this season, while the Badgers are just 1-3-0 ATS at home.
The lowest point total available was 137.5 points, but it jumped and settled to 139.5 points at most books.
Both teams have crossed the Over in three of their seven games on the season.
The Over is 3-1-0 across Wisconsin’s four home games. Marquette has played just one road game this season, but the Over is 2-2-0 in games the Golden Eagles have been favored in this season.
Marquette vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
The Badgers haven’t played since Monday, giving them an extra day of rest against the Golden Eagles. However, Marquette has won each of its last 12 games when playing with a rest disadvantage. Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. Wisconsin.
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Marquette vs Wisconsin game info
| Location: | Kohl Center, Madison, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, December 2, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Marquette vs Wisconsin key injuries
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