Marquette vs Xavier Odds, Picks and Predictions: Musketeers Keep Marching Along

The top two seeds in the Big East will battle it out for the conference title on Saturday when the Marquette Golden Eagles face off against the Xavier Musketeers at Madison Square Garden.

No. 15 Xavier (25-8) reached the finals of the Big East Tournament with wins over DePaul and Creighton. Meanwhile, No. 6 Marquette (27-6) survived two close calls, escaping past both St. John’s and UConn. 

These two teams are evenly matched, and both will be earning high seeds in the NCAA Tournament on Selection Sunday. We’ll talk about who has the edge in tonight’s matchup in our college basketball picks and predictions for Xavier vs. Marquette on March 11.

Marquette vs Xavier best odds

Marquette vs Xavier picks and predictions

By Marquette’s standards, this has been a disappointing run through the Big East Tournament. Normally one of the top offenses in the country, the Golden Eagles have averaged just 71 points in their first two games, down significantly from the 81 they put up on average all season long.

Still, that’s been enough to get Marquette into its first Big East Tournament final after 18 years in the conference. It will likely have to play much better if it wants to take down its first conference title. The Golden Eagles now run into a Xavier team that is every bit a match for them and is playing far better in the Big East Tournament.

The Musketeers faced their own challenge in the quarterfinals, needing a fierce second-half comeback to knock off lowly DePaul. They had no such trouble on Friday night when they outplayed Creighton from start to finish in a 22-point win.

Marquette has won 18 of its last 20 games, making the Golden Eagles one of the hottest teams in the country. However, it’s notable that two of their toughest games in that stretch came against Xavier. The Musketeers knocked off the Golden Eagles 80-76 back in January, and they nearly beat Marquette again on the road, with the Golden Eagles holding on for a 69-68 victory at home thanks to an Olivier-Maxence Prosper dunk in the final seconds.

Those two close games were no fluke. These teams match up evenly across the board, making it difficult to pick between them on any night. They both rank in the Top 10 in the country in overall shooting and offensive efficiency according to KenPom.

They even share the same relative weakness, allowing over 70 points per game to opponents. Both the Musketeers and the Golden Eagles rely on outscoring their opposition rather than playing shutdown defense.

Marquette comes into tonight’s game as a very slight favorite. The advanced metrics are split on which team is actually better, but bookmakers may be giving the Golden Eagles a slight edge due to their eight-game winning streak and the fact that Xavier remains without forward Zach Freemantle, who is out for the year with a foot injury.

Despite the loss of Freemantly, Xavier has played well even in Freemantle’s absence and Marquette hasn’t shown off its offensive firepower in the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers have already split a pair of games with the Golden Eagles and are coming off a huge win over Creighton.

This game is at best a virtual tossup, and I would give the slightest of edges to Xavier. With that in mind, I’m taking the Musketeers on the moneyline to get a little added value on what I wouldn’t even consider an upset win for Xavier tonight.

My best bet: Xavier moneyline (+115 at BetMGM)

Marquette vs Xavier spread analysis

Most sites opened tonight’s game with Marquette as a 1.5-point favorite over Xavier. That line has been pushed towards the Golden Eagles slightly, with Marquette -2 now the consensus spread. Both teams have played well against the spread this year.

The Musketeers are 18-14-1 against the spread, while Marquette has been even better, going 20-12-1 ATS on the season. I’m not surprised that Marquette opened as a favorite, but I didn’t expect bettors to make the line on this game even larger. The Golden Eagles haven’t had an easy time with Xavier this season, and have muddled through their first two games in the Big East Tournament.

We can’t ding Marquette too much for barely beating Connecticut — that was an upset win for the Golden Eagles — but their offense was still down on Saturday, and Xavier put in a much more impressive performance against Creighton.

As I noted earlier, the ratings systems are split between these two teams. KenPom has Marquette just ahead of Xavier, while Sagarin puts the Musketeers on top. Even the Massey composite rankings are close, with Marquette at No. 12 compared to No. 16 for Xavier.

There’s very little to separate these teams, and Xavier has looked good in both previous matchups against the Golden Eagles. I’m taking the Musketeers on the moneyline for some added value, but Xavier +2 is also a good bet for tonight’s game.

Marquette vs Xavier Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s Over/Under opened at around 155.5, but that number has come down throughout the day. As of noon on Saturday, most sportsbooks have placed the total at 154. That’s still a big number, but one that makes sense when you consider that both of these teams average over 80 points per game.

These are two of the most efficient offenses in the country, and both shoot the ball well and aren’t afraid to push the pace against their opponents.

So why isn’t the total even higher? The first two games between these two teams weren’t exactly shootouts. While they reached 156 in the first regular season meeting, the game at Marquette played to just 137.

Both of these teams can play a little defense, even if it isn’t their forte. Especially against better teams, their games are sometimes a bit more contained than you’d expect. There’s also the matter of how the Big East Tournament has been playing out. Outside of Xavier’s win over DePaul, there has been little scoring at Madison Square Garden.

Marquette hit the Under by double digits in each of its first two games and only got to 142 in its win over St. John’s because the game went to overtime. Even Xavier only played to a total of 142 against similarly offensive-minded Creighton on Friday.

I’m with the public in thinking this total is just a bit high despite what the raw numbers say about these teams. My money is on the Under tonight.

Marquette vs Xavier betting trend to know

Xavier is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games against teams with winning records. Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. Xavier.

Marquette vs Xavier game info

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