The Memphis Tigers (15-8, 9-4) have been building their case to make the Big Dance with six straight wins.
On Sunday they will face off against the SMU Mustangs (18-6, 9-3), and the winner of that game will at the very least hold second place in the American conference. Will the streaking Tigers take it to the Pistons or will SMU hold their ground?
Continue reading for free college basketball picks and analysis for Memphis vs SMU on Sunday, February 20th.
Memphis vs SMU odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Memphis opened as 3-point favorites and after some small movement both ways, it has settled back at -3. The total opened at 146.5
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Memphis vs SMU predictions
Predictions made on 2/19/2022 at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Memphis vs SMU game info
• Location: Moody Coliseum, University Park, TX
• Date: Sunday, February 20, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Memphis at SMU betting preview
Injuries
Memphis: Emoni Bates F (Questionable).
SMU: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Memphis has played 8-3 to the Under in their last 11 games and 4-0 to the Under in totals set at or above Sunday's total of 146.5. Find more NCAA betting trends for Memphis vs. SMU.
Memphis vs SMU picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Memphis has quickly turned a seemingly disappointing season into a legitimate chance to make noise down the stretch. The Tigers started the season 9-8 but have won six straight since, including a win on the road over the American conference-leading Houston Cougars.
The success has truly been a team effort, with five different game-high scorers during this win streak. And in hindsight, maybe it was always obvious that a team so reliant on youth was going to take some time to find their footing.
Five-star true freshman Jalen Duren (11.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg) has come alive in the last month, averaging 13.7 points while shooting 65.4% from the field and picking up three double-doubles along the way, his first since the opening weeks of the season.
Fellow true freshman Josh Minott seemingly had a "New Year, New Me" resolution as he has seen a massive uptick in usage and production since the calendar flipped. In 2022, Minot is averaging 10.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks on 22.1 minutes per game.
In lieu of their recent successes, Memphis has quietly climbed to the 36th spot in KenPom's efficiency ratings. In front of them on Sunday afternoon is a team ahead of them in the conference standings, but one that doesn't measure as well with underlying metrics.
SMU is a less impressive 64th in those same rankings, which is largely a product of the relative lack in strength across their schedule. Their non-conference schedule according to KenPom ranked 249th and their conference schedule to date has ranked 107th. Considering Memphis' ranked 34th and 49th respectively, the gap is hard to ignore.
Given Memphis' growth over the course of the season, it would be a bit disingenuous to use full metrics to break down this matchup. The apparent peace that has washed over the Tigers since Emoni Bates' absence has seemingly given the team more focus on both ends of the court.
In the last six games, they've put up 80 or more points in four games and have allowed less than 70 points in four games as well. That type of synchronization of quality play on both ends is hard to come by.
Prediction: Memphis -3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Tigers' bread and butter is volume and efficiency at the rim. They are 79th in the nation in terms of the percentage of shots taken and 73rd in field goal percentage there.
Unfortunately, SMU is equipped defensively to slow that down quite a bit, ranking 100th in shots allowed at the rim and 86th in field goal percentage allowed. Memphis still has the edge, but the gap is certainly not large enough to extract a very sizable advantage there.
Memphis compliments their approach with proficiency from deep, with their second-best 36.8% 3-point percentage in the American conference. SMU only allows 31.7% from deep, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the conference.
As part of Memphis' newfound defensive focus, they've played 8-3 to the Under in their last 11 games. Sunday's total of 146.5 does lean towards the higher side in terms of what Memphis regularly sees, but they have played 4-2 to the Under the six times they've played in totals above 140.
As a whole, the four times they have seen a total at or above Sunday's mark have resulted in four Unders as well.
Prediction: Under 146.5 (-110)
Best bet
Sunday may be an example of a team's value in the market being dragged down by now irrelevant early-season performance.
Memphis is very clearly not the same team it was to start the season, a start during which they were 5-13 ATS. On top of winning six straight, they have covered the spread in the last five as well.
Conversely, the Mustangs are 2-4 ATS in their last six following a streak of 11 games where they went 9-2 against the number. SMU has been small underdogs (<5 points) just twice this season and they lost by a combined 32 points in those games.
Memphis coach Penny Hardaway has seemingly lit a fire under his team amidst struggles through mid-January and constant media attention in regards to the Emoni Bates situation.
Expect this team to keep their focus for Sunday and walk away with a convincing win.
Pick: Memphis -3 (-110)
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