The No. 14-ranked Memphis Tigers face off against the South Florida Bulls at the Yuengling Center tonight.
Both teams have struggled on the spread lately but my Memphis vs South Florida predictions expect the Tigers to pull away.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this 9 p.m. ET AAC showdown on Thursday, February 13.
Memphis vs South Florida prediction
My best bet
Memphis -7 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The South Florida Bulls won their first regular season conference title last year. But after losing their three best players to the transfer portal and the tragic death of head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim in October, they've significantly regressed.
The Bulls are just 3-6 straight up and 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games and are coming off a 75-70 loss at home against a Wichita State squad that is near the bottom of the AAC standings with a 3-7 mark.
It's a big change to go from the Shockers to the Memphis Tigers, who are atop the AAC with a 10-1 record. To be fair, the Tigers have gone just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and rarely blow out opponents.
That said, it's notable that the spread for this game is set at 7.0 points, which is right below what seems to be the tipping point. Eight of the Tigers' last 11 victories have come by more than seven points.
Memphis does a great job of drawing fouls, ranking 33rd in free-throw rate (28%). The Bulls are outside the Top 250 in opponent FT rate (26.3%) with that number surging to 31.8% over their last three games. The Tigers also lead the nation in 3-point percentage (40.3%) and have been shooting lights out away from home.
On the other side of the floor, the Tigers are first in the AAC in adjusted defensive efficiency during conference play. They should shut down a USF side that is just 10th in the AAC in adjusted offense against conference foes.
Memphis vs South Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Memphis -6.5
Under 152.5
Dain Dainja Over 6.5 rebounds
The Tigers' second-leading scorer Tyrese Hunter (14.5 PPG on 44/42/76 shooting) is listed as questionable with a knee injury. Likewise, USF could be without third-leading scorer Kobe Knox (11.1 PPG), who is questionable with a sprained ankle.
That's enough for me to lean toward the Under in a game where Memphis' stingy defense limits a Bulls squad lacking offensive firepower.
Memphis big man Dain Dainja has pulled down 8+ rebounds in five of his last seven games. With both offenses preferring to push the pace — and the Bulls 286th in the country in rebounding rate — there will be plenty of available boards for Dainja tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Memphis vs South Florida odds
Memphis vs South Florida live odds
Memphis vs South Florida opening odds
- Spread: Memphis -7.5 (-110) | South Florida +7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis -360 | South Florida +280
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 (-110) | Under 151.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Memphis vs South Florida betting trend to know
The Under is 5-2 in South Florida's last seven games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Memphis vs. South Florida.
How to watch Memphis vs South Florida
| Location | Yuengling Center, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Thursday, 2-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN 2 |
Memphis vs South Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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