Miami vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wagner Facilitates UK Offense in Up-Tempo Affair

Two of college basketball’s most efficient offensive teams headline the ACC/SEC Challenge on Tuesday night when the Miami Hurricanes visit Rupp Arena to take on the Kentucky Wildcats. Our college basketball odds expect a high-scoring and entertaining affair.

Kansas State was the latest team to fall victim to Miami, as the Canes pulled off an 8-point win their last time out to move to 5-0 on the season. Miami ranks fourth in effective field goal percentage, and Jim Larranaga has his team playing an exciting brand of basketball led by the top 3-point offense in the nation.

Kentucky’s found some outside shooting of their own, and their young group of star freshmen have Big Blue Nation once again feeling like they’re in the old days under John Calipari. The Wildcats have the sixth-most effective shooting offense in the country and are taking exceptional care of the basketball.

Our college basketball picks for Miami vs. Kentucky break down the action and explain why one player is set to be distributing frequently on the offensive end. 

Miami vs Kentucky best odds

Miami vs Kentucky picks and predictions

So far this season, D.J. Wagner is assisting on one of every five baskets the Kentucky Wildcats make while he’s on the floor, but in his past two games against St. Joseph’s and Marshall, he’s accounted for assists on 31% and 26%, respectively, of his teammates’ successful field goals. 

That’s why I’m backing him to have at least four tonight against the Miami Hurricanes. 

Wagner is averaging 3.7 assists per game this season but had a rough outing against Kansas in their only defeat so far. He managed just one assist while making just one of his 12 shots from the floor in 25 minutes.

However, you can understand a high-profile player going on the road for the first time in college, in an atmosphere like that, and struggling a bit. He also was forcing things at times and found it difficult to finish at the rim against Hunter Dickinson.

Miami’s not going to present that problem. Its four-guard setup operates around a 6-foot-7 forward in Norchad Omier. He’s not the type of player who can clog the lane and defend the rim on his own when a guard penetrates.

That means defensive rotation — and that’s a point guard’s best friend when it comes to finding teammates. And boy, has Kentucky been adept at doing that so far this season. As a Kentucky fan who covers the team, I’m confident in saying this is the best passing team Calipari has had since taking the job in Lexington.

The Wildcats rank seventh in effective field goal percentage in large part due to that passing. Their turnover rate of 10.8 paces college basketball and they rank 53rd in college basketball in assists per field goal made. 

It helps to have lethal spot-up shooters all over the floor, something else Calipari has rarely had in his time at Kentucky. Three different Wildcats are shooting better than 44.7% from downtown, with all three having taken at least 21 attempts from beyond the arc.

Reed Sheppard is hitting an absurd 66.7% off the bench, while Rob Dillingham and Antonio Reeves have made a combined 35 treys through six games.

This game is going to be up-tempo, just like Kentucky’s last two games. And without a big man to protect the rim, Wagner should find plenty of space to operate. Whether it’s leading the offense in transition or getting into the lane and collapsing the defense, expect him to find some open teammates for easy baskets.

For some reason, FanDuel is offering Wagner to have over 3.5 dimes at +122. This price is higher than everywhere else, with him being minus odds at some books. That’s why it’s a two-unit play for me on Tuesday night. 

My best bet: D.J. Wager Over 3.5 assists (+122 at FanDuel)

Miami vs Kentucky same-game parlay

D.J. Wagner Over 3.5 assists

Antonio Reeves Over 4.5 rebounds

Antonio Reeves Over 2.5 made threes

+445 at DraftKings

FanDuel doesn’t allow us to parlay assists, unfortunately, so our same-game parlay takes us to DraftKings where we can still get even money on that prop.

We’re going to combine it with two more props from Reeves. Not only has he been a deadeye shooter when set — which he often wasn’t doing against the Jayhawks — he’s been crashing the glass hard for a Kentucky team without a true center. 

Reeves has a defensive rebound rate of 13.1 this season and has claimed 5+ rebounds in four of his last five games. He even finished second for the Wildcats with eight against Kansas. I like him to get five here against a team that ranks 243rd in offensive rebound rate.

And remember what we talked about with the up-tempo play? Well, these two teams both like to shoot from range. While Miami’s much better at defending the outside shot than Kentucky is, Reeves has a green light at all times.

Reeves is exceptional at finding open space in transition while drifting to the open corner when a teammate gets into the paint. For that reason, I like him to hit at least three tonight, something he’s done in five straight games. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Miami vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

Fans quickly jumped on the opening spread of Kentucky -3.5, pushing the Wildcats to 6.5-point favorites. The line moved as high as -7.5 at BetMGM on Tuesday morning, and could continue to see a shift in that direction.

Miami’s only quality opponent so far is that Kansas State team, who the Canes defeated by eight points. They easily covered as 3-point favorites, their fourth cover in five games so far. 

Miami is the underdog for the first time this season and has a good shot to stay in close range given its excellent outside shooting. Kentucky is only 3-3 ATS this season, although they’ve been double-digit favorites in five of those contests. 

Kentucky’s struggled to defend the arc this year, with opponents taking nearly 45% of their attempts from outside. The Wildcats will need to close out better, especially in transition, as this game will be played at a fairly high pace.

The spread is right about where I’m projecting the game, so I’m not taking either side. If the number comes back below 5.5 or goes above 8.5 then I’d likely have a lean.

As for the total, the Under has actually been the early play with the line opening at 165 or more. It’s settled at 164, and I’m still leaning Under here. That’s despite Kentucky’s last five games all going Over, along with four of Miami’s five. 

Both of these teams are highly efficient offensively, but Miami has not faced a team with Kentucky’s speed and athleticism.

Neither team is hitting the offensive glass either, which means limited second-chance opportunities. I also anticipate Sheppard could be tasked with helping slow down Wooga Poplar, who is shooting 51% from downtown this season. 

Miami vs Kentucky betting trend to know

Miami’s team total Over is 24-11 in its last 35 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Kentucky.

Miami vs Kentucky game info

Miami vs Kentucky key injuries

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