The eyes of the college basketball world will be focused Saturday night on Rupp Arena as John Calipari returns home, leading the Arkansas Razorbacks to take on the Kentucky Wildcats.
Coach Cal departed Lexington after last year’s embarrassing tournament failure, but his 15-year stint produced a national championship.
Now, he leads a struggling Hogs team into what may be a less-than-friendly environment against Mark Pope’s high-octane Wildcat offense.
We’re backing the energy to fuel a banger of a first half in our Arkansas vs Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, February 1.
Arkansas vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
Over 74 1H points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
When the Kentucky Wildcats hosted Texas A&M at Rupp Arena in January, the Wildcats and Aggies scored a combined 27 points in the opening 11:30 of the contest. It was an ugly showing, with numerous wide-open shots failing to find the bottom of the net.
And yet, the two teams still managed to score 67 points before the halftime buzzer.
That’s because, typically, Kentucky is involved in high-scoring affairs, and it’s rare to see both teams failing to put up points.
This has especially been the case at Rupp Arena, where the first-half total in Kentucky’s three SEC home games has averaged 84.3 points.
While two of those games were end-to-end affairs with Florida and Alabama, it’s been a trend for the Wildcats to come out hot at home.
And for the Arkansas Razorbacks, giving up points in the first half has been a problem since conference play began.
Kentucky shoots lights-out from downtown at home, and on the season, the Wildcats rank 30th nationally in 3-pt%.
Over their last five SEC games, the Wildcats are connecting on 42.9% of their long-range efforts.
Meanwhile, the Hogs are allowing SEC opponents to find success on 36.9% of their shots from downtown, the second-worst in conference play.
And while Arkansas has been struggling quite a bit of late at the offensive end, the Wildcats are the perfect elixir to remedy their struggles.
The Wildcats rank dead last in the SEC during conference play in turnover defense and adjusted defensive efficiency, with opponents shooting a league-high 57.3% from inside the arc.
Furthermore, the Wildcats will yet again be without starting point guard Lamont Butler, whose defense has been solid this season.
Arkansas has posted the worst 2-pt% and 3-pt% marks in SEC play, but the Hogs don’t turn the ball over often.
They should be able to find more success at the offensive end.
Mark Pope has been outstanding at making second-half adjustments, but the Wildcats have been vulnerable prior to the intermission.
This atmosphere will be highly charged, and I expect the tempo to be high as both teams feed off the energy in the building.
Bank on plenty of scoring in the opening 20 minutes.
Arkansas vs Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 74 points 1st half
Amari Williams Over 3.5 assists
Kentucky -10
With the absence of Butler, Kentucky has been running much of its offense through big man Amari Williams. He was even bringing the ball up as a point forward for much of the second half against Tennessee.
Williams has four or more assists in four of his last five games, and he will get plenty of opportunities for dimes as he kicks out to shooters against an Arkansas defense struggling against the outside shot.
That outside shooting will be the difference in this game. Arkansas will find some success inside against a Kentucky defense struggling to defend the rim.
But the Hogs aren’t getting consistent outside shooting in SEC play, and Missouri showed what can happen when a home team begins stretching the lead against them with the long ball.
Big Blue Nation wants to send a message to Calipari, and there’s no love lost between these two programs.
The Wildcats will pull away in the second half and win by double-digits against an Arkansas team that has covered in just five of 20 games this season.
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Arkansas vs Kentucky odds
Arkansas vs Kentucky live odds
Arkansas vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas +11.5 (-110) | Kentucky -11.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arkansas (+450) | Kentucky (-600)
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 (-110) | Under 155.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arkansas vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.30 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Arkansas vs Kentucky
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Saturday, 2-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Arkansas vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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