Miami vs Notre Dame Odds, Picks and Predictions: Irish Offense Struggles in ACC Rematch

The Miami Hurricanes will look to move back to .500 in ACC play when they visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tonight. Our college basketball odds have the Canes favored to win by a small margin.

After an 11-2 start to the season, the Canes have dropped four of their last five games. That includes a humiliating nine-point loss at home to Louisville, by far the worst team in the conference. Miami will hope to get Norchad Omier back from an ankle injury this evening, as the Hurricanes forward leads the team in scoring and rebounding.

It’s been a rough season for Notre Dame, with six of its 11 defeats coming by double-digits. That includes a 62-49 loss at Miami earlier this season, in which the Irish shot just 28.6% from the floor. The Fighting Irish offense has been putrid much of the season, with Markus Burton being the only player averaging double-figures per game.

Our college basketball picks and predictions for Miami vs Notre Dame explain why those offensive woes for the Irish are unlikely to disappear on Wednesday night.

Miami vs Notre Dame best odds

Miami vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

Through its first seven conference games, Notre Dame is averaging just 61.1 points per contest. That’s down nearly two full points from its season average, which ranks 346th in college basketball at 62.8 points per game.

In fact, Notre Dame has scored 60 or more points in conference play just twice — a 75-68 win at Georgia Tech, and a 76-54 rout of Virginia.

What did those two games have in common? Free throws. Notre Dame got to the line 21 and 17 times, respectively, and made 32 of its 38 attempts.

In the Irish' four most recent conference defeats, three of them saw them get to the line no more than 11 times. The fourth saw them go 8-of-15 from the charity stripe.

Why am I telling you this? Because only two teams in college basketball send their opponents to the line at a lower rate than Miami.

Tonight, Notre Dame’s team total for this game is 67.5 points — a number that the Irish eclipsed just five times in 18 games, and that’s why we’re taking the Under for our best bet.

Miami’s offense struggled in that first matchup, but the defense didn’t. The Canes held the Irish to just 18.8% shooting on 32 attempts from outside and conceded only nine free throw attempts. They forced 13 turnovers as well, eight of which came off steals.

While the Canes have been giving up points during this recent losing spell, five of their last six opponents ranked in the Top 120 in tempo. Fortunately for Miami, Notre Dame operates at a tempo that ranks in the 300s. The Irish are now tasked with reaching a total they seldom encounter, and will also be facing a defense that stifled them the first time around. 

And on top of all that, the Irish typically cough it up one out of every five trips. Give me the Under 68.5 for the home team, and let’s make it a two-unit play. Race to FanDuel and get it while you can, with the number having already dropped to 67.5 at other books.

My best bet: Notre Dame team total Under 67.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Miami vs Notre Dame same-game parlay

Notre Dame team total Under 67.5

Markus Burton Over 2.5 rebounds

Nijel Pack Over 2.5 threes

+600 at DraftKings

Markus Burton has grabbed at least three rebounds in nine of his last 10 games and had five in their loss last time out to Boston College. He had two in the loss to Miami earlier this season, but the Irish rank 63rd in defensive rebound rate, and the Hurricanes rank in the Top 30 in 3-point attempts per game. That means more long rebounds, and I like Burton to get at least three.

Nijela Pack hasn’t been a high-volume outside shooter for large portions of the season, but that’s changed over the past month. He’s attempted six or more in five straight games and has made six of 19 over his past two contests.  

The Miami guard has also made at least three in five of his last six games and went 3-of-6 against the Irish earlier this season. With Omier likely out or not at 100%, I expect Pack to see high usage tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Miami vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis

Miami is favored by 4.5 points, a line that opened at -3.5 and quickly moved up. The status of Omier is still in the air, and if he were announced as available, I’d expect the line to quickly move in the Hurricanes' favor. 

The Canes have lost four of five outright, but they've gone 2-2-1 ATS in that period. Miami is also 5-2-1 ATS over its last eight games but has lost outright in its last two games when favored.  

Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in its last six games, all as underdogs, but has lost four of its last five games outright. The Irish have also won just two of their seven conference games this season. 

I like Miami to win this game, but without Omier, I’m not willing to back the Canes to cover the spread. Notre Dame has found a way of late to keep games closer than expected, especially at home, and Miami simply hasn’t looked good over the past few weeks.  

Since opening at 138.5, the total has jumped up two points. That’s no surprise, given Miami’s defense struggles the past three weeks.  

That said, Miami has cashed the Under in three out of its last four games. In fact, the Hurricanes latest game was projected at 160 and they combined with Syracuse to score just 141 points.  

The Irish have seen the Under go 6-2 in their last eight games. That includes two straight contests where they failed to reach 135.5 totals. The current total of 138.5 is higher than any total Notre Dame has seen in its last nine games.  

I’m leaning Under here as well, but I’d rather go with my best bet. Omier’s presence would likely push this total higher, and if the offense figures things out, Miami could easily push this Over with or without him.  

Miami vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

The Notre Dame team total Under is 20-10 in its last 30 games (+8.55 units / 25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Notre Dame.

Miami vs Notre Dame game info

Miami vs Notre Dame key injuries

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