The Michigan State Spartans take their seven-game winning streak to Champaign to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in college basketball action tonight.
Both teams have dropped out of the AP Top 25 but could get back in with a strong performance in this pivotal Big Ten matchup, where College basketball betting lines opened with the Illini as 5-point home favorites before ticking up to -6.5.
Do I think riding that steam is the right way to go? I break it down in my free college basketball predictions for Michigan State vs. Illinois on Friday, January 13.
Michigan State vs Illinois best odds
Michigan State vs Illinois picks and predictions
The Spartans are red-hot, having gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games, with road wins against Wisconsin and Penn State during that span — so you know that they can play well away from home.
That isn't too surprising when you consider the old adage that "defense travels well," because MSU has been locking down on D: The Spartans are holding opponents to 57.7 points per game on 37.7% shooting during this seven-game stretch.
They got even better defensively when senior forward Malik Hall returned to the lineup two weeks ago after missing more than a month with a foot injury. Hall is a versatile player and his ability to slow down Illinois' best player (Terrence Shannon Jr.) on the wing will be crucial.
Outside of Shannon, the Illini don't have many shot-creators, especially after highly regarded freshman Skyy Clark left the program following last week's loss to Northwestern. They seem to have better chemistry without Clark but a lack of a true point guard is still a major issue with Illinois 280th in the country in turnover rate (20%) and often struggling to generate open looks.
The Illini are coming off back-to-back wins but before that, they had an ugly stretch where they went 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS with their only victories coming against tiny Alabama A&M and Bethune Cookman.
They also shoot just 66.2% from the free-throw line, which will make it tough for them to cover this spread down the stretch.
My best bet: Michigan State +6.5 (-104)
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Michigan State vs Illinois spread analysis
Tom Izzo's squad has won seven games in a row and is fresh off a 69-65 road win against Wisconsin. The Spartans shot 52% from the floor and limited the Badgers to 45 FG% while outrebounding them 32-18.
In their previous game, they held Michigan to 53 points on 35% shooting and stingy defense has been the strength of this team. They don't force many turnovers but they contest shots from every spot on the floor and they clean up on the defensive glass.
They aren't dynamic on offense but they share the ball (14th in the country in assists per field goal) and shoot well from both beyond the arc (37.8 3PT%) and the free-throw line (75.6 FT%).
The Spartans have four players scoring in double digits, led by Tyson Walker (13.9 ppg, 3.1 apg) and Joey Hauser (13.8 ppg, 7.8 RPG). Point guard A.J. Hoggard is fifth in the country with 6.5 apg while adding 12 ppg as well.
Hall has been slowly seeing his playing time increase since returning to the lineup and he logged 27 minutes against the Badgers. Hall played 42 minutes — and dropped 20 points — in Michigan State's upset win against Kentucky in November, so you know how valuable he is in important matchups.
Illinois has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. it knocked off UCLA and Texas on neutral ground earlier this year... but then went through a recent stretch where it lost by double-digits to Penn State, Missouri, and Northwestern.
The Illini have since rebounded with back-to-back wins against Wisconsin and Nebraska, hammering the Huskers by 26 points on Tuesday — but they didn't look great on offense, shooting just 46% from the floor.
It was their defense that forced 17 turnovers and held the Huskers to 37 FG% that propelled them to victory, a constant theme for Illinois this season as Brad Underwood's team struggles to knock down mid-range and perimeter shots but holds foes to a 39.1 FG%.
Illinois is led by Shannon, who averages 18.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. After him, there's a big dropoff to Coleman Hawkins and Matthew Mayer who are tied for second in scoring with 10.1 ppg.
Michigan State vs Illinois Over/Under analysis
This O/U opened at 136.5 before moving up to 138.5, which is still easily the lowest total we've seen between these Big Ten rivals since 2017.
That relatively low number makes plenty of sense, however, when you consider that both teams have been better on defense than offense.
Illinois is 22nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom while ranking 48th on offense. Meanwhile, the Spartans are 39th on defense and 61st on offense.
That doesn't even take into account that the Spartans play at a slow pace and have been even better defensively with Hall back in the lineup.
The Illini seem to have gotten better defensively since Clark left the team and are coming off a game where they limited Nebraska to 50 points. Freshman guards Sencire Harris and Ty Rodgers will likely see their minutes increase in his absence and while they won't give Illinois a much-needed ball handler they are an upgrade on defense.
Michigan State vs Illinois betting trend to know
The Fighting Illini are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more College basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Michigan State State.
Michigan State vs Illinois game info
| Location: | State Farm Center, Champaign, IL |
| Date: | Friday, January 13, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
