Michigan State vs Indiana Odds, Picks and Predictions: Spartans Will Control a Slow Pace

Two Big Ten teams that have gone through some recent struggles will face off on Sunday afternoon as the Michigan State Spartans head to Bloomington to take on the Indiana Hoosiers.

Michigan State has lost two of its past three games, and now sits at 13-6 overall (5-3 in conference). Indiana has lost six of its last 11 games, and is 12-6 overall (3-4 in conference).

Which early season contender will turn things around on Sunday? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs Indiana on Sunday, January 22 to find out.

Michigan State vs Indiana best odds

Michigan State vs Indiana picks and predictions

This game will truly be a battle of offense vs defense. Michigan State ranks 66th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 65.0 points per game. However, they only average 69.7 points per contest themselves, which ranks 225th in the country.

On the other end, Indiana ranks 39th with 79.0 points per game. However, they allow 67.7 per contest, which ranks 139th. The Hoosiers will continue to be without two seniors in Xavier Johnson and Race Thompson. Both players were starters and averaged a combined 18.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game.

In the four games played without Johnson and Thompson, Indiana has gone 2-2, averaging 73.0 points and allowing 69.8 points per game. They were affected negatively on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Michigan State will be without Malik Hall again, who has missed much of the season early on.

The Spartans are 7-2 with Hall in the lineup, but 6-4 without him. Both rough patches of the season for Michigan State happened without this senior leader in the lineup. In the nine games with Hall, the Spartans averaged 72.4 points per game and allowed 64.9 points per contest. While their defense remained strong, the offense has suffered without Hall.

Michigan State likes to slow down the game, and they will try to do so here in Indiana to give themselves a chance to pull off the road win. The Spartans rank 288th in possessions per game, and rarely turn the ball over. They will be able to bleed the clock out on offense and find their best shot.

On the other end, Indiana will have to work hard to get their opportunities, as the Spartans only allow their opponents to shoot 40.2% from the field. This is likely to be a game with few possessions and fewer opportunities to score. I like the Under here regardless of who wins.

My best bet: Under 138.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Michigan State vs Indiana spread analysis

Finding wins on the road in conference is what can separate the top title contenders from the rest. While the Spartans aren’t a top contender, they have impressed on the road thus far. They are 2-1 in such games, with wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. 

Despite recent struggles, the Spartans have covered eight of their last 10 games. Indiana might be on the bounce back, winning and covering each of their last two games. However, they failed to cover in eight of their prior nine contests. Things won’t get easier on Sunday afternoon.

The Spartans are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games against a team with a winning straight up record. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a spread win. Indiana is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning SU record. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two programs.

Michigan State is going to control the pace, and that will spell trouble for the Hoosiers. Indiana lost a similar style game to Rutgers earlier this season in which they only scored 48 points. The Hoosiers will likely score more than that at home, but I still like the Spartans to not only cover, but win outright on the road. 

Michigan State vs Indiana Over/Under analysis

Indiana has had multiple high-scoring games this season, but also some very low-scoring games. The Spartans have been much more consistent in their games, remaining relatively low-scoring. They have not had a game total reach 150 points since December. 

The Under is 5-2 in the Spartans' last seven games following an ATS win, and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. They excel on forcing bad shots and limiting teams from getting 3-pointers. Michigan State also has a strong opponent free throw percentage at 72.1%. That may seem meaningless since you can’t defend free throws, but their style of play wears down the opponents, which can impact free throw shooting. 

The Hoosiers do not attempt many threes (17.6 per game), ranking 329th in the country in attempts. Additionally, they only get 9.5 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 244th in the nation. They are going to struggle to put up points against this Michigan State defense, and that should lead to an Under.

Michigan State vs Indiana betting trend to know

The Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Indiana.

Michigan State vs Indiana game info

Michigan State vs Indiana key injuries

Pages related to this topic