At some point this month, Rick Barnes will be criticized. It is a March Madness tradition.
No matter how good the Tennessee Volunteers may be, and they very much are, Barnes underdelivers this time of year. That dramatic moment should not come against the Wofford Terriers, but the hints of Barnes’s next letdown will be seen in this first-round matchup.
My Wofford vs. Tennessee predictions expect this to stay closer than the lofty spread suggests. Find out more in my March Madness picks for Thursday, March 20.
Who will win Wofford vs Tennessee?
As many laughs as can be had at Rick Barnes’s expense, he has lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament only once while at Tennessee, now in his 10th season and making his seventh tourney appearance with the Vols. Reach back to his time at Texas and you still have to go back to 2001 to find another time Barnes lost in the first round as a seed better than No. 8, with 14 first-round wins marking that stretch.
Barnes underdelivers in March Madness, but he is not prone to the most absurd embarrassments.
Wofford deserves some deference, as will be quickly expressed below, but the Terriers were blown out by 51 by Duke in November and lost by nine at Lipscomb a week before that. Two rather decisive losses against the only teams it played in this bracket do not help conjure up hopes of Wofford pulling off this upset.
Wofford vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet: Wofford +19 (-110 at bet365)
Wofford may not pull off this upset, but it should slow this game to a crawl. Of the 364 teams in Division I basketball, only 31 play slower than the Terriers do. Yours truly grew up with a 50-pound Boston terrier, and he was still faster than these Terriers. Their offensive possessions, in particular, use up an average of 19.3 seconds out of the 30-second shot clock.
Tennessee will welcome that plodding pace. Typically, Bluetick Coonhounds like Smokey are faster than a Boston terrier, but the Volunteers are indeed even slower than the Terriers, ranking No. 19 in slowest pace this year, per Ken Pomeroy.
This game might not have 60 possessions per team. Mathematically, that realization alone makes it clear that Tennessee would need to average nearly a third of a point more per possession than Wofford to cover this spread. Despite the obvious talent disparities between the No. 4 team in the SEC and the Southern Conference champions, 0.32 points more per possession would be a steep ask.
Of course, it is absolutely possible. The Volunteers took care of such business in the first round last year against Saint Peter’s, winning 83-49 in a game with 64 possessions. The Peacocks actually played at a similar pace last year as the Terriers do now, but they were wretched offensively, whereas Wofford is a quality offensive team enjoying an efficient attack.
The Terriers take 3-pointers on 47.7% of their field goal attempts, the 23rd-highest rate in the country, making an above-average 34.5% of them. The Volunteers will give up those looks, opponents taking threes on 45.1% of their field goal attempts, the 25th-highest rate in the country.
Tennessee makes most of those bad looks, giving up a 3-point percentage of only 27.8%, but Wofford should shoot better than that. It is more accustomed to chucking from deep than most of the SEC. The Terriers’ 3-point shooting would have ranked No. 7 in the SEC this year.
This shortened game favors the underdog covering a massive spread, as does Tennessee’s defensive design. It worked against a bad offense last year, but it should give a strong scoring unit some life this week.
Wofford vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
Wofford +19
Over 133
Chaz Lanier Over 2.5 threes
Tennessee does not have the only defense in this game prone to encouraging opponents to shoot from deep. Wofford forced 3-pointers on 45.8% of opposing field goal attempts.
Two defenses encouraging those looks and two offenses happy to take them should propel this game past its modest total, a total lowered by how slow this game will be. Frankly, it should be an interesting style: Methodical but analytically efficient offenses.
No Volunteer will be more delighted to take those threes than Chaz Lanier. The senior guard has hit 40% of his shots from deep this season, including 44.1% in nonconference play. Lanier’s production slowed in SEC play, but before getting to that gauntlet of a conference, he cleared this prop in 11 of 13 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Wofford vs Tennessee odds
Wofford vs Tennessee live odds
Wofford vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: Wofford +19 | Tennessee -19
- Moneyline: Wofford +1550 | Tennessee -4000
- Over/Under: Over 133.5 | Under 133.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Wofford vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Rick Barnes is 11-23 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament in his head-coaching career, including 5-10 ATS while at Tennessee. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wofford vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Wofford vs Tennessee
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Wofford vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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