As a No. 1 seed in the first round of last year’s March Madness, the Houston Cougars gave up 16 first-half points to Longwood. In reaching seven straight NCAA Tournaments now, Kelvin Sampson has not endured a first-round upset while with the Cougars.
No one should expect the SIU Edwardsville Cougars to spring an upset, but my SIU Edwardsville vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks take what may be an unexpected approach, given Houston’s dominant first round a year ago.
Still, there is logic to betting on some early Edwardsville points after tip at 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 20.
Who will win SIU Edwardsville vs Houston?
Houston has not lost in regulation since the second game of the season. Edwardsville has not beaten a single team in this NCAA Tournament.
While Houston lost in overtime as a 9.5-point home favorite against Texas Tech on Feb. 1 and in overtime as a 13.5-point favorite against San Diego State on Nov. 30, those are the only outright losses as a favorite of at least four buckets in the last two seasons. Houston does not often lay eggs.
Do not look for a repeat of UMBC or Farleigh Dickinson here.
SIU Edwardsville vs Houston prediction
My best bet: SIU Edwardsville first-half team total Over 21.5 points (-120 at bet365)
While Houston shut down Longwood in the first half last season by giving up just 16 points before the break, only so much can be drawn from that. The Lancers had a woeful offense that did not understand modern basketball.
Longwood pulled up from beyond the arc on only 28.4% of its field goal attempts — a Bottom 20 rate in the country — and it shot just about average on those shots.
To make matters worse, the Lancers turned over the ball on nearly a fifth of their possessions, a critical error against Houston’s aggressive defense.
SIU Edwardsville at least plays modern basketball, pulling up from beyond the arc on 36.2% of its field goal attempts; still a problematic rate, but at least a survivable one. And SIUE does not gift the ball to its opponent as often.
These are backhanded compliments, if that, but they emphasize how bad Longwood was a year ago, diminishing the worry Houston might put the clamps on so tightly early again this year.
In the three NCAA Tournaments before facing Longwood to open last year’s, all of the Cougars' first-round opponents hit their first-half team total Overs, averaging 53.4% of their full-game team totals.
To lend that some context, realize this first-half team total of 21.5 is just 44.3% of Edwardsville’s full-game team total, a reflection of expected garbage time in a blowout.
That blowout should come, but it may be slightly delayed when Houston’s defense is not fully dialed in out of the gates. An early afternoon in Wichita will not necessarily get the juices flowing.
SIU Edwardsville vs Houston same-game parlay (SGP)
SIU Edwardsville first-half team total Over 21.5
Houston -29
Milos Uzan Under 12.5 points
Houston has been a No. 1 seed in three straight NCAA Tournaments now. In 2022, the Cougars were No. 5, and in 2021, they were a No. 2.
In those four previous moments as a hefty favorite, Houston went 3-1 against the spread. The sole ATS loss came in 2023 when star guard Marcus Sasser was injured after just 14 minutes against Northern Kentucky. The Cougars struggled to regain their composure without Sasser.
Health this week should prevent such a lapse.
Houston is healthy, but it may be fatigued. Milos Uzan played 36 minutes on Friday and 37 minutes on Saturday in winning the Big 12 Tournament. If Kelvin Sampson wants to give anybody on his roster a bit of rest before March’s urgency hits in full, he should start with Uzan.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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SIU Edwardsville vs Houston odds
SIU Edwardsville vs Houston live odds
SIU Edwardsville vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: SIU Edwardsville +29 | Houston -29
- Moneyline: SIU Edwardsville +2,500 | Houston -10,000
- Over/Under: Over 126.5 | Under 126.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
SIU Edwardsville vs Houston betting trend to know
Early in the season, Houston was a favorite of at least 28 points in five games. It went 4-1 ATS in those five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for SIU Edwardsville vs. Houston.
How to watch SIU Edwardsville vs Houston
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | INTRUST Bank Arena, Wichita, KS |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
SIU Edwardsville vs Houston key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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