Texas A&M and Yale meet in what has become a trendy spot for an upset pick in this NCAA Tournament.
These teams have gone different directions to end their season while of course playing a very different schedule. The Aggies come into this matchup with a 5-5 record over their last 10 games in the SEC, while Yale has once again torpedoed through the Ivy League schedule with minimal issues and won nine of their last 10 games.
The Bulldogs will give the Aggies a stern test here, as I explain in my Yale vs. Texas A&M predictions and March Madness picks for Thursday, March 20.
Who will win Yale vs Texas A&M?
Let's go with Texas A&M doing just enough on the interior to do enough to grab the win.
Yale profiles quite well here, and it would be no shock to see them pull the upset. However, they probably didn't pull the shocker off against Auburn last year without the Chad Baker Mazera ejection. Texas A&M will be laser-focused to ensure it doesn't happen a second time, and they get enough of an advantage on the interior to win the game.
Yale vs Texas A&M prediction
My best bet: Yale +7.5 (-110 at bet365)
I was fortunate to be a part of the Yale Bulldogs moneyline gang last season when the Ivy League warriors knocked off Auburn. Unfortunately, the fallout from that is the moneyline price for this game has been sapped of value.
A structural pricing guide would tell you that a 7-point spread in college basketball should come with the underdog moneyline price of around +273. We're nowhere close to that, so I can't advise you to take it. However, I'll happily take the spread price of +7. I see about a two-point edge.
Yale's John Poulakidas is a unique talent for a non-power five school to have because he's not going to be bothered by superior athletes. The senior scored 25 points in the conference championship against Cornell last weekend, but more importantly to this matchup, he scored 28 points in the upset against Auburn last year. Yale can have a good game here, at least enough to keep the game in spread range.
The Texas A&M Aggies haven't been great defensively against attack and kick sets this season, grading out at mostly the Division 1 average. This is where Poulakidas does his best work. There's really no team the Aggies have faced that is as uber efficient with their spacing as Yale, so it's doubly a cause of concern.
Texas A&M's offense is mostly predicated on having a massive shot volume advantage against their opponent via second-chance opportunities and at the free throw line. I don't think they can create an overwhelming advantage here.
They'll foul at a higher clip than usual because of the disadvantage of speed and athleticism, but it's not been an overwhelming issue this season. Yale has a foul rate that ranks inside the lowest 70 in college basketball and didn't have much problem with that when it lost to Purdue by eight earlier this season or Minnesota by three.
Even more pertinent is that it grades out very strongly on the defensive backboard with a Top 25 defensive rebounding percentage. It has validated that by holding its own on the backboard earlier this season against the aforementioned opponents.
There's always the possibility that Wade Taylor will go nuclear in this game and blow Yale's compact defensive strategy to shreds. If that happens, I'll tip my cap, but I see value in this number with multiple pathways that Yale hangs around.
Yale vs Texas A&M same-game parlay (SGP)
Yale +7.5
John Poulakidas Over 16.5 points
You could make the simple argument that "there's no chance another SEC team lets Poulakidas have a big game again in the same spot," and I don't hate it. However, where he thrives is an area that A&M has struggled to defend all season.
In addition, these legs are extremely correlated, and I don't see one happening without the other. I'm willing to take my chances.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Yale vs Texas A&M odds
Yale vs Texas A&M live odds
Yale vs Texas A&M opening odds
- Spread: Yale +7.5 | Texas A&M -7.5
- Moneyline: Yale +250 | Texas A&M -310
- Over/Under: Over 141 | Under 141
Odds courtesy of bet365
Yale vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
Yale has covered the spread in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Yale vs. Texas A&M.
How to watch Yale vs Texas A&M
| Region | South |
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Yale vs Texas A&M key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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