One of the games that has drawn the most attention since the brackets were made will get going late Thursday night when Michigan and UC San Diego face off.
Michigan finished the regular season with a bang and a Big Ten Conference Championship. The Wolverines needed that run after losing three straight to end the regular season.
UC San Diego has been on a heater and is one of the best stories in college basketball this season, as the program is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance.
Read on for my UC San Diego vs. Michigan predictions and March Madness picks for Thursday, March 20 to see why I think points will be hard to come by early on.
Who will win UC San Diego vs Michigan?
I flipped a coin and it landed on Michigan, so I'll go with them.
In all seriousness, this is a tough matchup to call with two teams that will present plenty of questions for others. I can't get over the Tritons seeing legit power four size for the first time this season in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. That's what's pushing me over the edge, but UC San Diego certainly commands respect, and there are multiple avenues to them winning the game too.
UC San Diego vs Michigan prediction
My best bet: Under 67 1H (-110 at bet365)
The story of this game summed up in one word? Adjustments.
The entire game will feature circumstances and matchups that will call for adjustments for both the UC San Diego Tritons and the Michigan Wolverines. That leads me to think we see a slow start, and I'm taking the first half under as my best bet.
This will be an altitude adjustment for both teams. You may have heard it before, but Denver is called the Mile High City for a reason, and neither Ann Arbor nor UC San Diego is very high above sea level. How does that impact things?
The last NCAA tournament games held in the Ball Arena came in 2023, and the first-half Unders went an even 2-2. However, the two prior times the tournament was held here saw a 1H Under hit rate of approximately 70%. There's not enough of a sample size to really make a strong statement either way, but I have concerns about how quickly these two teams, who haven't played at real elevation all season, can adjust.
I also have questions about how either team scores consistently in the halfcourt against the other.
That question is exceptionally straightforward regarding UC San Diego: How do they react to facing so much size? About a month into the season, Michigan head coach Dusty May switched to the twin tower lineup that it has now and it made all the difference.
Most of that has happened on offense; in fact, they are worse defensively when the two are on the floor. However, as it relates to this matchup, they have a defensive strength with them on the floor. With Goldin and Wolf on the floor, Michigan has held opponents to around an eFG% of 51% around the rim, which is nearly 10% below the national average. That makes me think it'll be tough sledding for the rim-reliant Tritons.
On the other side of the ball, if you've paid attention to the discourse, then you know one of the chief stories of this game is the turnover battle. It's been an issue for Michigan throughout the season with careless crosscourt passes and generally poor ball handling. It's all culminated with a turnover rate of nearly 20%, which ranks 329th nationally.
That's a problem because UC San Diego has the second-highest forced turnover rate in the sport. Rather than be risky in the passing lanes, taking gambles, they've done it primarily by making their opponents work deep into the shot clock and make mistakes. Michigan has been a poster child for that this season.
The turnover issue can catapult itself into a slew of easy buckets and, of course, kill an Under. However, the Michigan transition defense has been relatively strong this season, so I suspect the most significant impact it will have on this game is simply disrupting the Michigan offensive flow. I'd play this to 65.5.
UC San Diego vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 67 1H
Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones Under 19.5 points
The Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones points prop is too high.
ATJ could take a little time to settle against a backcourt with as much athleticism as Michigan's. These aren't great defenders, but they can cause havoc and force the ball out of his hand.
The 21-point threshold is a number he's only reached once since the start of March. In addition, he's also seen his efficiency numbers drop in the two games he's played against Top-50 competition this season
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UC San Diego vs Michigan odds
UC San Diego vs Michigan live odds
UC San Diego vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: UC San Diego +2.5 | Michigan -2.5
- Moneyline: UC San Diego +125 | Michigan -150
- Over/Under: Over 141.5 | Under 141.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
UC San Diego vs Michigan betting trend to know
Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games (+10.00 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for UC San Diego vs. Michigan.
How to watch UC San Diego vs Michigan
| Region | South |
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
UC San Diego vs Michigan key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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