The Florida Gators played their way into the No. 1 seed in the West Region with a fantastic finish to the schedule and a run to the SEC tournament title.
That top billing has UF facing the No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans in the Round of 64. Oddsmakers don’t expect much of a game, with the Gators laying the lumber as 28.5-point favorites.
Florida is the deserving chalk, considering its long list of strengths, one of which is rebounding. That has my Norfolk State vs. Florida predictions and March Madness picks counting up the boards for Rueben Chinyelu.
Who will win Norfolk State vs Florida?
Florida's game has very few flaws, and books have them as a -10000 moneyline heavyweight. That’s an implied win probability of 99%. Florida will win.
Norfolk State vs Florida prediction
My best bet: Rueben Chinyelu Over 5.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365)
Rueben Chinyelu makes the most of his minutes. The 6-foot-10 sophomore starts for the Florida Gators but logs only 19 minutes of floor time per game, with UF mixing up its rotation for different looks.
Despite the limited work, Chinyelu scores six points and grabs 6.5 rebounds per game. He could get extra run against Norfolk State on Friday, given how the Norfolk State Spartans go about their business.
Norfolk State attacks the rim with reckless abandon, pushing the ball in transition and attempting the bulk of its shots around the key. The Spartans are 18th in average points in the paint (37.7) in the country but run into a big bad Florida defense that doesn’t give up anything easy inside.
The Gators are 15th in 2-point field goal defense (45.9%), 31st in blocks, and do a good job slowing down transition offenses — mainly due to their efficient scoring that has foes starting possessions off the inbounds most trips. That will give UF time to set up the halfcourt defense and push Norfolk State to the perimeter, where it does not like to be.
The Spartans are no strangers to power conference competition, taking on the likes of Tennessee and Baylor this season. In those outings, NSU’s offense sputtered to meet their season standards, especially against the Volunteers, who held the Spartans to 52 points on 37% shooting. Tennessee grabbed 29 rebounds in that win, including nine on the offensive glass.
Chinyelu is a stay-at-home rim protector for UF, which puts him in perfect position to grab misses from a Norfolk State offense unable to find its offensive rhythm. He’s also a hound on the offensive boards, which is something the Spartans struggle with. They’re giving up 10.5 offensive rebounds an outing (346th).
Chinyelu was big on the boards —10 and 11 rebounds — for Florida in both meetings with Alabama, which is a much better version of this Norfolk State offense. The Crimson Tide push pace and try to attack the rim, along with sucking at keeping foes off the offense glass. Nine of those 21 total rebounds from Chinyelu against Alabama were on the offensive end.
He’s been feast or famine on the window in recent games, with highs of 10, 11, and 13 rebounds and lows of four boards over the past nine outings. However, those outcomes came against quality SEC opponents, and this matchup with NSU is a big step down.
Player projections range from 5.1 rebounds from Chinyelu to as many as 7.5, with my forecast at 6.7 boards for the sophomore. That projection is for his normal workload of 19 minutes, but with the game script calling for a one-sided win, Chinyelu could see extra run with the Gators protecting the top half of the rotation in the final 20 minutes.
Norfolk State vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Rueben Chinyelu Over 5.5 rebounds
Walter Clayton 3+ threes
Alijah Martin Over 13.5 points
Rueben Chinyelu will be in position for defensive boards and eat up NSU on the offensive glass, with some models flirting with eight rebounds.
Walter Clayton has the hot hand coming into the NCAA, having made 3+ triples in four straight games.
Alijah Martin’s projections hover just short of 15 points, so I’m going with the O/U instead of the 15+ milestone market. Fourteen has been a magic number for him this season (scoring that exact amount seven times).
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Norfolk State vs Florida odds
Norfolk State vs Florida live odds
Norfolk State vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: Norfolk State +29 | Florida -29
- Moneyline: Norfolk State +2500 | Florida -10000
- Over/Under: Over 153.5 | Under 153.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Norfolk State vs Florida betting trend to know
Florida has covered the spread in 25 of its last 35 games (+14.05 units/37% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Norfolk State vs. Florida.
How to watch Norfolk State vs Florida
| Region | West |
| Location | Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Norfolk State vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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