The first “Get Even or Get Even Deeper” game of the NCAA Tournament features the No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders taking on the No. 14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks in a 10:10 p.m. ET tipoff – the final game on the betting board Thursday night.
The Red Raiders enter March Madness with high hopes but limp into Wichita this week with notable injuries to key contributors Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams.
While both starters are expected to dress, just how much they’ll play in the Round of 64 remains to be seen. That could put the scoring load firmly on the shoulders of JT Toppin in this tournament opener.
I go shoppin’ for Toppin points prop with my best Texas Tech vs. UNC Wilmington predictions and March Madness picks for March 20.
Who will win UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech?
The Red Raiders are big favorites in this Round of 64 clash, with the outright odds giving TTU an implied win probability of 94%.
Going back to 1985, there have been just 23 No. 14 seeds successfully taking down a No. 3 in the opening round. Texas Tech won’t be the 24th.
UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech prediction
My best bet: JT Toppin Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Texas Tech was in rough shape for its run-in with Arizona in the Big 12 tournament. Not only was TTU playing without McMillian and Williams, but Toppins was battling through an illness.
The Red Raiders would still put up a fight, losing 86-80, and Toppin would be limited to only 25 minutes of action. He shot 4-for-11 from the field and finished with just 11 points — his lowest output since being limited with an ankle injury against Baylor back on February 4.
Since that game with BU, Toppin has been on an absolute tear offensively. He’s averaging more than 23 points per game in his last 11 outings, and his illness-induced 11 points against Arizona was just the third time he’s failed to crack 21 points in that stretch.
Considering the unknowns of McMillian and Williams, player projections versus UNC Wilmington are a little tough to gauge. Head coach Grant McCasland was cagey when it came to an update on their health for this tournament opener.
“I am optimistic that we'll have everybody playing. At to what level, I'm not real sure,” McCasland told the media on Monday. “But I do know that they're hard at work and trying to get specifically Darrion and Chance ready to go."
The Red Raiders didn’t catch any breaks drawing a Thursday game. With TTU favored by 15.5 points and the Seahawks presenting a soft start to the NCAA Tournament, we could see McCasland protect those injured players (either sitting them or limiting minutes) for what will be a much stiffer Round of 32 test: facing either Missouri or spiky mid-major Drake on Saturday.
With that in mind, Toppin’s role in the offense could explode even more against a UNC Wilmington team that doesn’t pose much of a threat on defense. The Seahawks have a tough time slowing down foes in the halfcourt set and are vulnerable to pick-and-roll (235th defending P&R at ShotQualityBets).
Toppin does his best work starting as the high screener at the top of the key (TTU ranks 45th in P&R sets) and finding scoring space either slipping inside or stepping out as a shooter. He led the Big 12 in points in the paint (11.9 PITP) and faces a UNCW defense giving up almost 29 points in the key per contest.
As mentioned, game projections vary due to the unknown status of TTU’s other contributors. On the low end, some models call for 16 points from Toppin, but those include McMillian and Williams putting in their usual scoring outputs. Other forecasts call for around 20 points, with tempered results for the Red Raiders’ two unknowns.
Toppin's recent scoring props have ranged from 17.5 O/U (vs. Colorado 52nd Def Eff) to 22.5 O/U (without McMillian/Williams vs. Arizona), with most numbers at 18.5 points. Despite TTU's injury concerns and the inferior opponent, books are only adding one more bucket to that total versus the Seahawks.
Considering Toppin has poured on the points in the past month — even with McMillian and Williams at full strength — I love the possibility of him hanging 21-plus points on Thursday.
UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
JT Toppin 20+ points
Donovan Newby 10+ points
Elijah Hawkins 10+ points
Toppin has been on a tear the past 11 games and could be called upon to score more if TTU is missing some key contributors.
Donovan Newby is the primary scorer for UNCW, with his forecast ranging from 10 to 13 points versus the Red Raiders.
Elijah Hawkins is more of a playmaker for TTU, but he will shoot more if the Red Raiders roster is running thin. He tied a season-high 12 FGAs versus Arizona.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech odds
UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech live odds
UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech opening odds
- Spread: UNC Wilmington +16 (-110) | Texas Tech -16 (-110)
- Moneyline: UNC Wilmington +1000 | Texas Tech -2000
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech betting trend to know
UNC Wilmington has covered the 1H spread in 21 of its last 28 games (+12.95 Units/40% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for UNC Wilmington vs. Texas Tech.
How to watch UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech
| Region | West |
| Location | INTRUST Bank Arena, Wichita, KS |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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