Don’t look now, but here come the Maryland Terrapins.
Maryland’s four-game winning streak has it flying off the top rope into the crowded top of the Big Ten standings. It has an opportunity to pull away from the pack when it hosts the Michigan State Spartans tonight.
The Terrapins have won and covered in four consecutive games and have just one loss in their past nine outings going back to mid-January (6-3 ATS). That streak collides with the Spartans’ surge, with MSU on a three-game run of its own.
In massive matchup, I’m siding with the slight home favorite in my Michigan State vs. Maryland predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, February 26.
Michigan State vs Maryland prediction
My best bet
Maryland -3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The calendar is closing in on the infamous month of “Izzo,” and the Michigan State Spartans head coach once again has his team peaking at the perfect time.
The Spartans have won three straight games to vault themselves into the log jam for the conference lead, taking down fellow top-tier rivals in Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan. However, that run doesn’t look as impressive in retrospect, given the faceplants from the Boilermakers and Illini (who were fighting illness all month) and ice-cold shooting from the Wolverines.
The Maryland Terrapins' makeup is a bad matchup for MSU. The Terps are a fantastic inside-out team and a much more dangerous perimeter threat that the Spartans have faced in a long time. Michigan State’s defensive numbers are puffed up due to a recent run of one-dimensional foes who rank among the worst 3-point teams in the Big Ten.
Maryland, on the other hand, is the best 3-point shooting team in the conference and has been even sharper from distance during this run, knocking down 37 of 88 shots from beyond the arc in the past four contests.
That said, the Terrapins aren’t solely dependent on triples either and have all five starters putting up double figures in the points column. They’re anchored by the interior scoring of Derik Queen and Julian Reese, who are also athletic enough to get out and run, fill the lanes on fastbreaks, and finish at the basket.
That also makes UM very good against fellow transition attacks, which is the foundation of Tom Izzo’s programs. Michigan State thrives in putting opponents on their heels and attacking the interior before the defense can get set. But the Terrapins sit among the Top 20 in transition defense, according to ShotQualityBets, and hold foes to just 6.5 fastbreak points per game.
Maryland is a solid 10-6-1 ATS inside the XFINITY Center this season and boasts an average margin of +23.8 at home, which ranks fifth-highest in the country. Game models range from a 2-point win for the Terps to as large as an 8-point victory. My number lands on a 5-point margin in favor of Maryland tonight.
Michigan State vs Maryland same-game parlay (SGP)
Maryland -3.5
Michigan State team total Under 73.5
Ja'Kobi Gillespie 3+ 3-pointers
The Terps can score inside and out and their length and athleticism will put the brakes on Izzo’s transition attack.
The Spartans won’t be able to push the ball and will be forced into halfcourt sets, which will eat up clock and keep them away from the rim.
Gillespie will test MSU’s 3-point defense. He’s hit three or more from distance in each of the past three games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Michigan State vs Maryland odds
Michigan State vs Maryland live odds
Michigan State vs Maryland opening odds
- Spread: Michigan State +3.5 | Maryland -3.5
- Moneyline: Michigan State +146 | Maryland -171
- Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Michigan State vs Maryland betting trend to know
Michigan State has gone Over its team total in just 16 of its last 35 games (-5.90 Units/-15% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Maryland.
How to watch Michigan State vs Maryland
| Location | XFINITY Center, College Park, MD |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-26-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Michigan State vs Maryland key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
