The No. 18-ranked Michigan State Spartans head to Columbus to face the No. 21 Ohio State Buckeyes in college basketball action on Friday night.
The Buckeyes have covered the spread in three straight meetings with the Spartans, and my Michigan State vs. Ohio State predictions are betting on that trend to continue.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big Ten showdown on January 3.
Michigan State vs Ohio State prediction
My best bet
Ohio State -2.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Michigan State Spartans are 11-2 and riding a six-game winning streak. That said, their offensive efficiency significantly drops off away from home, and Value City Arena is a particularly tough venue for visitors.
The Ohio State Buckeyes suffered a lopsided loss to No. 2 Auburn last month but have bounced back with three consecutive victories — none bigger than a 85-65 neutral-site win against No. 10 Kentucky.
It's worth mentioning that their lineup underwent a significant change after that loss to Auburn. Senior guard Meechie Johnson Jr., who had really been struggling on the court, took a leave from the team for personal reasons. That led to an increase in minutes for sharp-shooting freshman John Mobley Jr. while key backups Ques Glover and Aaron Bradshaw returned to the rotation after missing time with injuries.
OSU has three players averaging more than 12 points per game, led by Bruce Thornton and his 17.4 ppg. Meanwhile, Michigan State has just one player averaging double-digits in points: Jaden Akins with 13.7 ppg.
The Buckeyes are 33rd in the country in turnover rate and they shoot a sizzling 39.3% from deep — the 13th-best number in the land. On the other side of the floor, they rank 17th in 3-point defense (28.3%) while the Spartans are outside the Top 300 in 3-point percentage (28.8%).
With the Buckeyes shooting the ball much better from the perimeter and boasting more scoring options, look for them to pull away at home.
Michigan State vs Ohio State same-game parlay
Ohio State -2.5
Devin Royal Under 7.5 rebounds
Devin Royal Over 0.5 assists
Buckeyes forward Devin Royal averages 14.8 ppg and leads the team with 7.5 rebounds per game. However, Royal has grabbed 7+ rebounds just once in his last five games and just twice in seven contests against high-major foes. He'll have a tough time on the glass against the Spartans, who rank second in the nation in rebound rate (58.1%).
That said, Royal has dropped at least one dime in eight of his last nine games, which makes his assists prop too low here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan State vs Ohio State odds
Michigan State vs Ohio State live odds
Michigan State vs Ohio State opening odds
- Spread: Michigan State +2.5 | Ohio State -2.5
- Moneyline: Michigan State +110 | Ohio State -130
- Over/Under: Over 149 | Under 149
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan State vs Ohio State betting trend to know
Ohio State is 11-1 ATS in it's last 12 games at home (+6.20 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Ohio State.
How to watch Michigan State vs Ohio State
| Location: | Value City Arena, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Friday, 1-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Michigan State vs Ohio State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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