Big Ten conference play continues when the up-and-down Michigan Wolverines visit Bloomington, Indiana to take on the 14-4 Indiana Hoosiers as 4-point road underdogs.
Last time out, the Wolverines took down Maryland 83-64, but prior to that, had lost three straight games. Today, they're up against a Hoosiers crew that's an undefeated 12-0 at home.
Can the Wolverines play up to their potential and win a big game or will the Hoosiers stay undefeated at home and cover the small spread? Read our college basketball betting picks for Michigan vs. Indiana to find out.
Michigan vs Indiana odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This game hit the board with Indiana as 4-point home favorites. It ticked down to -3.5 at some shops but has come back up to -4 across the board at the time of writing. The total opened at 134.5 and was bought down to 133.5, where it currently sits.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Michigan vs Indiana predictions
Predictions made on 1/23/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Michigan vs Indiana game info
• Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
• Date: Sunday, January 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Michigan at Indiana betting preview
Injuries
Michigan: Brandon Johns F (Questionable), Zeb Jackson G (Questionable).
Indiana: Khristian Lander G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Indiana is 8-0 in their last eight games as a home favorite and 10-1 in their last 11 home games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan vs. Indiana.
Michigan vs Indiana picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Michigan, one of the preseason March Madness favorites, has gotten off to a bumpy 8-7 start to the season, including a 2-3 mark in conference play.
Indiana, on the other hand, has far exceeded early-season expectations, are 14-4 thus far, and are coming off their biggest win of the year, a three-point victory against the No. 4-ranked Purdue Boilermakers.
Offensively, the Hoosiers are led by Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is averaging just under 19 points and 9 rebounds on just over 60% shooting. They rank 72nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, averaging just under 75 points per game, shooting a 53.7 effective field goal percentage, ranking 46th in the nation.
But defensively is where this team has gotten the job done, ranking 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, limiting teams to an effective field goal percentage of 42.6%, the sixth-best mark in the country.
Look no further than their big win three nights ago. Purdue, who averages 85 points per game (fourth in the nation), was held to just 65 points inside Indiana's building, including only 28 points in the first half.
Part of Michigan's early-season struggles has come on the perimeter. They rank 169th in three-point percentage, with those misses rearing their ugly heads in losses to Seton Hall, Arizona, and Minnesota, where they shot sub-20% from deep in all three games.
That spells trouble when they go on the road to face Indiana, who holds teams to 29.7% from beyond the arc, the 36th-best mark in the nation.
The Wolverines have lost their last three road outings by an average margin of 12.3 points. Of those three losses, only Illinois ranks higher than Indiana on KenPom's rankings (UCF 86th, Rutgers 91st).
Michigan's road struggles are one-upped by Indiana's home success this season. The Hoosiers have thrived at home to the tune of 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS records so far this season.
When both teams play to their potential, Michigan might be the better team, but the Wolverines have not shown they can do that consistently, especially on the road. Back the Hoosiers at home.
Prediction: Indiana -4 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The total in this game is on the board at 133.5, and while both defenses in this game are capable of keeping this game in check, I still think the number is a couple of points too low.
The Over is 6-2 in Michigan's last eight games, reaching 134 points in seven of those games. It's also 7-3 in their last 10 games as underdogs.
While Indiana is 7-11 to the Over on the year, it's 12-5 in their last 17 games following an ATS win and 6-2 against teams with losing road records.
It's only a lean but I like these teams to reach the high-60s, low-70s and sneak just Over the total.
Prediction: Over 133.5 (-110)
Best bet
I love Indiana -4 as the best bet.
Michigan hasn't shown they can compete with teams of this caliber on the road. They're 1-4 ATS in road contests, with their only road cover coming against a Nebraska team that's 0-8 in conference play.
Favorites are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these squads and Indiana is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 at home.
Back these trends to continue with an Indiana win and cover.
Pick: Indiana -4 (-110)
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Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
